CUSMA/USMCA (formerly known as NAFTA)

NAFTA Negotiations 2017-2018

Biden praises Canada, Mexico as leaders discuss strains
By AAMER MADHANI, ROB GILLIES, and MARIA VERZA
(AP) But as Biden, along with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, spoke of their mutual respect, the three leaders also found themselves dealing with fresh strains on trade, immigration, climate change and other matters.
“We can meet all the challenges if we just take the time to speak to one another, by working together,” said Biden, who hosted the North American neighbors for what had been a near-annual tradition in the decade before President Donald Trump came to office.
It was a day of full-on diplomacy that required careful choreography as Trudeau and Lopez Obrador each met separately with Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris before gathering for a three-way conversation in the East Room that featured a language mix of English, French and Spanish.

At Summit, U.S., Canada and Mexico Avoid Thorny Questions
The meeting let North American leaders present a united front without going into detail on deeper issues, including trade disputes or migration.
(NYT) “This is one of the easiest relationships that we have,” Mr. Biden said during a meeting with Mr. Trudeau, glossing over Canada’s complaints that the president’s buy-American policies on goods like electric vehicles have disrupted commerce between the two countries

14 November
The Three Amigos: Getting North America in Gear Again
Colin Robertson
(Policy) The North American idea gets a revival this Thursday in Washington when President Joe Biden hosts Canada’s Justin Trudeau and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador for the first “Three Amigos” summit in five years. According to the White House, their meeting “will reaffirm their strong ties and integration while also charting a new path for collaboration on ending the Covid-19 pandemic and advancing health security; competitiveness and equitable growth, to include climate change; and a regional vision for migration.”
NAFTA launched two decades of successful trade integration, creating jobs and prosperity in all three nations. In recent years, various US studies — the Council on Foreign Relations, Harvard’s Belfer Center, the George W. Bush PresidentialCenter, the Wilson Center – demonstrate that with resources, technology, a growing market, and  a young educated work force, closer North America collaboration will create even more jobs and prosperity.
Business has long bought into the advantages of continental trade, investment and integrated supply chains. The North American Strategy for Competitiveness (NASCO) has worked since 1994 to give it practical effect. The recent CP-Kansas CitySouthern deal creating the first single-line rail network linking Canada, the US and Mexico is just the most recent example of our increasingly integrated electrical and fibre-optic grids, roads, rail, ports, and pipelines although we need to do more to harden them against cyber-threats including ransomware.
In Washington this week, there will be well-meaning pledges by this newest iteration of the Three Amigos on climate and COVID. There will be commitments to joint economic recovery that is sustainable, inclusive and that will grow the middle class. They will nod vigorously that the five-year hiatus in these neighbourhood get-togethers was far too long and that they must do this again.
But bromides aside, can the trio, in their own fashion each a progressive, tackle the tough issues like migration, border management and protectionism? Will the dollars being poured into the various national “Build Back Better” projects be coordinated in a trilateral industrial policy? Could we collaborate in a Marshall Plan-like effort to mitigate the effects of climate, crime and corruption in Central America that daily sends hundreds fleeing north through Mexico with the hope of sanctuary in the US? Probably not, but perhaps they can at least begin a process for future action.
While it won’t be acknowledged, much of the serious discussion, certainly the serious negotiations, will be devoted to the “dueling bilaterals” between Mexico and the US, and then Canada and the US.

28 April
The importance of USMCA for the Biden administration’s economic and foreign policy
The U.S., Canadian, and Mexican governments should use USMCA as the backbone for a renewed vision of North American competitiveness.
(Brookings) The Biden administration has ordered a review of U.S. supply chains, with the objective of decreasing American dependence on Chinese production of critical inputs. Integrated North American supply chains could provide a viable alternative to Chinese manufacturing and allow some critical industries to move production closer to home.
The Biden administration has signaled that one of its priorities will be strengthening diplomatic relationships with America’s traditional allies, including Canada and Mexico. Following Trump’s “America First” approach, an early and visible commitment to strengthening the economic relationship between the three North American partners would be a welcome signal that the Biden administration will prioritize alliance diplomacy.
… The administration also needs to invest in making the agreement’s many committees productive and dynamic, using these institutional mechanisms to give the effect of a living agreement. For example, a new Competitiveness Committee will bring together officials from the three countries to assess the implementation and identify scope for further integration to increase regional competitiveness. Furthermore, it creates opportunities for the partners to continually review and update their associated trade and investment policies—but only if governments meaningfully invest in the process.

2020

Trudeau cancels visit with U.S. and Mexican leaders
Asked last week whether he would attend the Washington meeting, Trudeau said that COVID-19 posed an obvious concern, given that Canadian public health rules would mean he would have to quarantine for two weeks upon his return.
(RCI) The meeting between Trump and Lopez Obrador is still expected to go ahead in Washington on Wednesday.
“While there were recent discussions about the possible participation of Canada, the prime minister will be in Ottawa this week for scheduled cabinet meetings and the long-planned sitting of Parliament,” Chantal Gagnon, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), said in a statement.
Trudeau, however, spoke with the Mexican president by phone on Monday, according to the PMO.
“The two leaders discussed the significant efforts made by each country to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and looked forward to their next opportunity to meet in person,” said a readout of the phone call released by the PMO.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Won’t Cross the Border for Washington Summit
Mr. Trudeau was invited to the meeting this week to celebrate the official start of a new trade deal. But as Canada’s coronavirus preventer-in-chief, he hardly could go, experts said.
(NYT) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed on Monday he won’t attend a meeting in Washington this week with President Donald Trump and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico. The meeting was meant to celebrate the official start of the new trade deal between the three countries — the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (U.S.M.C.A.). … since the coronavirus pandemic reached Canada, the prime minister has become the country’s model for following new medical guidelines on virus-spreading prevention, which include wearing a mask and avoiding travel.
“Will Trump be wearing a mask in the meeting?” asked Roland Paris, a professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa, and a former foreign policy adviser to Mr. Trudeau. Would Mr. Trump stand closer than two meters away? “I don’t think Trudeau has any interest in being drawn into American debates on mask-wearing and appropriate health precautions during an epidemic,” Mr. Paris said.

1 July
In a world economy reshaped by a virus, the new North American trade deal takes effect
The new NAFTA tried not to change too much — and then the pandemic changed everything
If the Trudeau government is looking to celebrate something this Canada Day, it may be the relative security of the status quo that was more or less preserved in the talks.
“Bullet dodged” — that’s how Brett House, Scotiabank’s deputy chief economist, summed things up for CBC News last weekend.
“Sometimes,” he said, “the biggest victories are the bad things prevented, rather than new things built.”
Unlike Canada’s original trade deals with the U.S. and the other major trade deals the Trudeau government has implemented with European and Pacific Rim partners, the new NAFTA doesn’t substantially liberalize more trade. Most North American tariffs had been eliminated already.
In attempting to modernize NAFTA for the 21st century, did negotiators meet the standard of “first, do no harm”?
In a paper released Tuesday by the C.D. Howe Institute, consultant trade economist Dan Ciuriak revisited the economic modelling done by the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. International Trade Commission and Global Affairs Canada, as well as his own figures, and tried to make sense of how things look now — amid the chaos of a pandemic that’s disrupted international supply chains, shut down all but essential cross-border travel and introduced a new public health rationale for constricting trade on national security grounds.
“There are many sources of uncertainty that at present do not lend themselves to a robust quantification,” his summary concludes. “The known knowns promise to be negative on balance; as for the known unknowns, time will tell.”
“Just as companies were starting to prepare and think about [NAFTA implementation], COVID came,” said Brian Kingston, outgoing vice-president responsible for trade issues at the Business Council of Canada.
“Their focus is turned 100 per cent to survival and making sure that they can get through this pandemic intact.”
AP fact check: New trade deal not as big as Trump claims

17 June
New NAFTA takes effect next month. U.S. is already threatening legal challenges
Trump’s trade rep says Canada, Mexico could face cases after deal enters force July 1
His strongest warning was directed at Mexico — Lighthizer predicted a fight ahead to get the U.S.’s southern neighbour to implement the improved workers’ rights it agreed to in the deal.
“We will take action early and often when there are problems,” Lighthizer said, in an exchange specifically about Mexican labour.
He then issued a more qualified threat involving Canadian dairy.

29 January
Liberal government tables legislation to implement new NAFTA as Trump signs U.S. bill
(CBC) Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled legislation Wednesday to implement the new NAFTA trade deal in Canada, on the same day U.S. President Donald Trump signed into law a major rewrite of the rules of trade with Canada and Mexico.
The Canadian bill, C-4, will amend dozens of laws — everything from the Broadcasting Act to the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation Act — to bring them in line with the text of the new trilateral trade deal. Mexico already has ratified the agreement.
According to the deal’s text, the new Canada-U.S.-Mexican Trade Agreement will come into force “on the first day of the third month following the ratification of the last of the three parties.” That countdown will begin when Canada has finished its parliamentary process and cabinet has given its final approvals.

28 January
Trump to sign North American trade pact at White House; key Democrats not invited
(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump will sign a new North American trade agreement on Wednesday in an outdoor ceremony at the White House to be attended by about 400 guests – but not the key Democrats who helped secure congressional passage of the deal.
Guests invited to the South Lawn signing include lawmakers from around the country, workers, farmers, and CEOs, as well as officials from Mexico and Canada, a White House official said.
Not invited were House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal and other Democrats who negotiated for months to expand the pact’s labor, environmental and enforcement provisions and ensure the approval of the Democratically-controlled House, said sources familiar with the situation.

27 January
Trudeau, Freeland urge opposition parties to pass bill on new NAFTA swiftly
Deputy prime minister says North American trade deal will be the most progressive in Canadian history
During a news conference on Parliament Hill Monday, Freeland said it’s time to end the economic uncertainty that lingered during the lengthy trade negotiations with the United States and Mexico. She called on opposition parties to collaborate and implement the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) — which she called “NAFTA-plus” — because it’s in the best interests of all Canadians.

16 January
USMCA, Trump’s new NAFTA deal, explained in under 600 words
A brief guide to the trade deal between Canada, Mexico, and the US.
(Vox) During his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised to renegotiate NAFTA, which he called “the worst trade deal ever made.” As president, he did so. The result is the USMCA, which the leaders of the three countries signed in November 2018.

2019

19 December
U.S. House passes new North American trade pact to replace NAFTA
Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade approved in a 385-41 bipartisan vote
(CBC) The House vote sends the measure to the Senate, but it is unclear when the Republican-controlled chamber will take it up. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has said that consideration of the measure would likely follow an impeachment trial in the Senate, expected in January.

15 December
Mexico fumes over labor enforcement details in trade bill.
(Politico) Mexico’s top trade negotiator plans to return to Washington on Sunday to express his outrage over language in the U.S. bill to implement the new North American trade agreement, potentially complicating the House’s plans to pass the USMCA this week.
Mexico was blindsided by the inclusion of language in the implementing bill that would allow the Trump administration to deploy full-time diplomats to Mexico to make sure the country is upholding labor standards, Jesús Seade, Mexico’s undersecretary for North America, said Saturday.
“For obvious reasons, Mexico was not consulted on this. We are not in agreement,” Seade said at the press conference. “This is not the fruit of our bilateral negotiation.”
“This has effects within our country and we should have been consulted,” Seade said, adding that it’s standard for a foreign country to be made aware about plans to deploy diplomats to its country. Mexico quickly ratified the proposed changes to the deal on Thursday night before the Trump administration delivered the 239-page implementing bill to Capitol Hill on Friday afternoon.
Mexico’s complaint stems from a portion of the legislation that allows the Labor Department to hire up to five full-time “labor attachés” to be based in Mexico to monitor and enforce the country’s labor obligations under USMCA.
The U.S. implementing language also would create an “Interagency Labor Committee” that would meet at least once every 90 days over the next five years to ensure Mexico is fully delivering on implementation of its landmark labor reforms. It would be co-chaired by the U.S. trade representative and labor secretary. It also outlines how the U.S. could block imports from Mexican factories suspected of violating labor rights — a looser definition than the one included in the 27-page document outlining the changes to the deal.

13 December
Legault urges Bloc to back new continental free trade pact
Quebec Premier François Legault is urging the Bloc Québécois and its leader to back the new North American trade pact because he insists the deal will buoy the province’s economy.
“I’m asking Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc to support the agreement, not to delay the legislative work, not to use the filibuster,” Legault told reporters Friday in Montreal after meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “The Bloc has to defend the interests of Quebecers, and it’s in the interest of Quebecers for this deal to be ratified.”
Though the accord specifically bans the use of semi-finished steel from China and elsewhere, it contains no such provision for aluminum. This will allow Mexico to import aluminum from China — a loophole that Legault said Quebec is unhappy with.

12 December
NYT editorial: The New NAFTA Is Better Than No NAFTA at All
Congress should pass the revised North American Free Trade Agreement, despite its considerable shortcomings.
The economic integration that followed the original deal was a jarring experience for many American workers and communities. But rebuilding trade barriers, particularly between the United States and Mexico, would forfeit the benefits of trade without reversing the damage.

10 December
Canada signs revised North American trade deal, clearing way for ratification
Freeland said that every single one of the last-minute amendments that were agreed upon are in Canada’s national interest.
“Today Canada, the United States and Mexico have agreed to improvements of the new NAFTA that strengthen state-to-state dispute settlement, labour protection, environmental protection, intellectual property, the automotive rules of origin, and will help to keep the most advanced medicines affordable for Canadians.”
Speaking to reporters after the official signing ceremony, Freeland said the amended deal was good for the whole country. But she singled out Quebec’s aluminum industry as one that will benefit.
The leaders of the three countries signed the agreement over a year ago in a well-publicized event on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina.
But the deal still had to be ratified by all three players, and congressional Democrats in Washington had been unwilling to move forward until now.
Freeland in Mexico to sign revised North American trade deal Pelosi calls ‘infinitely better’.
After months of delays, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed the renegotiated deal on Tuesday, saying progress has been made on the Democrats’ main areas of concerns: workers’ rights, the environment and prescription drug prices.

5 November
House Democrat Neal talks new NAFTA with Trudeau, Freeland and Hadju
(National Post) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal cabinet will be briefing an influential American lawmaker Wednesday on Canada’s work with Mexico to ease Democrats’ doubts over ratifying the new North American free trade deal.
Richard Neal, the chair of the U.S. House of Representatives ways and means committee, is a key player in bringing ratification of the new United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement, or USMCA as it is known in the U.S., to the floor of Congress for final legal approval.
Labour Minister Patty Hadju will join an expanded meeting between Neal, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland to provide an update on how Canada is trying to help Mexico comply with a key USMCA provision — ensuring that measures to improve workers’ rights in Mexico are enforceable, officials say.

2 August
U.S. Democrats want to roll back pharmaceutical protections — but Canada doesn’t want to reopen the USMCA
(G&M) It was one of Canada’s most significant concessions in the renegotiation of NAFTA: Tougher rules protecting big pharmaceutical companies from competition on some of their most expensive prescription drugs. The change, if implemented, will cost Canadians an estimated $169-million annually in additional spending on medications.
But congressional Democrats want the measure rolled back. As part of a push to lower drug costs, they are threatening to refuse to ratify the new NAFTA – dubbed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by the Trump administration – unless this tougher pharmaceutical rule is stripped out.
The move puts U.S. President Donald Trump in a difficult position. His own negotiators put pressure on a reluctant Canada and Mexico to accept the provision. But it contradicts his own recent promises to drive down prescription costs, including a plan unveiled this week to allow Americans to import cheaper medications from Canada.
The battle also leaves Canada in an unusual situation. American politicians are inadvertently advocating for Ottawa to win back a point it conceded in last year’s negotiations. But Canadian officials have repeatedly said they do not want to reopen the text of the USMCA and make changes, for fear this would lead to a full-scale renegotiation. Talks lasted for more than a year, causing uncertainty for business and consuming much of the government’s political bandwidth.
Canada and Mexico are aligned with Democrats on the biologics issue, but neither country wants to reopen the USMCA. Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland has said Canada has “done our deal” in the negotiations. Still, she has delayed ratification until the deal is passed by the United States, leaving open the possibility of changes.

18 July
If they won’t pass his trade deal, Trump should make Democrats own NAFTA
By Marc A. Thiessen
(WaPo) This week, President Trump appeared to renew his threat to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) if Democrats do not pass his new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). His threats may worry pro-trade Republicans, but they are music to the ears of anti-NAFTA Democrats, who would love nothing better than to get rid of NAFTA without giving Trump a trade victory.
Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) has a better idea: Trump should tell Democrats that they will own NAFTA if they oppose his deal to replace it. The message should be “if you’re a Democrat, you essentially are voting for NAFTA if you vote no on USMCA,” Portman explained in an interview on the American Enterprise Institute’s new podcast, , “What The Hell Is Going On,” which I co-host. If the USMCA fails, he says, “you go back to the status quo, which is NAFTA.”
Besides, Portman says, there is no good reason for Democrats to oppose the USMCA because “it is such a much better agreement for Democrats than NAFTA. … It’s everything that they’ve been asking for, in terms of improving the NAFTA accords.” Take the automobile industry for example. America has lost about 350,000 auto jobs since NAFTA was ratified in 1994, which is a third of all jobs in the industry. Meanwhile Mexico has gained hundreds of thousands of auto jobs during that time.

20 June
Greg Sargent: The 2020 Democrats just made a move on a big Trump weakness
(WaPo) I have learned that all of the leading Democratic contenders have signed a statement opposing congressional passage of Trump’s renegotiated NAFTA unless major changes are made. This could make it more difficult for Democrats — many of whom have already criticized the deal — to pass it, which could, in turn, end up denying Trump a serious political victory going into the 2020 election.
The top-tier Democratic candidates — Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala D. Harris, and Beto O’Rourke — have all joined a statement that was written by the Citizens Trade Campaign, a coalition of groups pushing changes to the deal, which is known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA.
That statement, which was sent my way, says Congress should not enact the deal “unless and until stronger labor and environmental terms with swift and certain enforcement are added and language on pharmaceutical monopolies that locks in high medicine prices is removed.”
The USMCA alters the old NAFTA in numerous ways. It requires a higher percentage of automobiles to be manufactured in the three countries to qualify for no tariffs, and it also requires 40 percent to 45 percent of auto parts on such cars to be manufactured by workers making at least $16 per hour by 2023. It also expands patent protections for drugs against generic competition.
As it is, many House Democrats want improvements to this deal, in the form of better labor and wage standards, as well as tougher mechanisms to enforce those standards, and they view the copyright expansion as a giveaway to Big Pharma. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), under pressure from labor, recently said the deal won’t get a House vote without changes.

27 May
Liberals will table new NAFTA ratification bill within days but key battles remain
(Global) …there are still some key challenges facing the government in ratifying the renegotiated NAFTA deal including a ticking parliamentary clock and uncertainty over when, how and if the United States and Mexico will also follow suit with their own ratification.

18 May
‘Full steam ahead’ on trade deal now that tariffs are lifted, Freeland says
Foreign affairs minister credits U.S. Senator Grassley with the breakthrough moment
… Freeland said she believes an opinion article written by U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley — a Republican — tipped the scales in Canada’s favour.
Grassley made clear that the U.S. Senate would not ratify CUSMA until the Section 232 tariffs evaporated. Freeland said she was so happy, she printed out the article and gave copies to each of her cabinet colleagues.
The tariffs are coming off, but it doesn’t mean the new CUSMA deal has an easy road ahead.
While the federal cabinet ratifies trade treaties, it does so only after implementation legislation has passed in Parliament, readying Canadian laws and regulations to comply with the new terms.

14 May
Campbell Clark: Mexico close to deal with U.S. to lift tariffs; waiting for Canada
Mexico is close to a deal with the United States to lift tariffs on steel on aluminum without imposing any quotas on exports, but the country has paused to give Canada an opportunity to work on its own deal with Washington, the chief Mexican negotiator told The Globe and Mail.
The Mexican agreement is largely based on provisions for monitoring and tracking steel and aluminum from other countries to prevent them bypassing U.S. tariffs by shipping products through Mexico, according to Jesus Seade, the country’s chief negotiator on North American trade and its point person on steel talks. He said he’s optimistic Canada can work out a deal with Washington along similar lines.
Crucially, the deal on the table includes no quotas that would restrict Mexican exports of steel or aluminum after tariffs are lifted – a key condition for Canada. The Administration of U.S. President Donald Trump had in past talks suggested that the 10-per-cent tariffs could be lifted if Mexico and Canada agreed to cap their exports at certain levels.

5 May
Trump ‘messed up the clock’ on USMCA, current form ‘dead’: former U.S. ambassador
(CTV) Since the signing, all attention has been focused on ratification given that the existing NAFTA will remain in place until its revamped version is fully ratified. As things stand, time is diminishing on that possibility given the amount of movement that would have to happen across North America over the next six weeks. That’s when Parliament rises for the last time before the October election will be called.
Among the obstacles yet to overcome: In the U.S. Democrats have said that the deal without changes won’t have their vote, nor will they allow a vote in Congress until Mexico changes its labour laws. In addition to these sticking points, Canada will not sign the deal so long as the U.S.-imposed steel and aluminum tariffs are in place.
“Let me be really clear that the USTR [United States Trade Representative] and Donald Trump mishandled this from day one. Had they just quickly passed a deal in 2017, signed an agreement between the three countries… in early 2018, he had the Congress, he had the Senate, he had the Mexican government in place, and there were no elections coming up here,” Heyman said.
“He could have passed it, scored a victory, and it’s done. They messed up the clock. Second, they did not collaborate or communicate with unions, nor did they work with the Democrats. So now they find themselves in a position where the Democrats, and the unions in the United States have a different perspective,” he said.

18 April
New NAFTA could add $62B to U.S. GDP, boost jobs, Congress told
The case for ratifying the revised North American trade agreement got a boost Thursday with the release of a new analysis by the U.S. International Trade Commission that predicted economic gains for all three partners if its changes are implemented.
“In light of the size of the U.S. economy relative to the size of the Mexican and Canadian economies, as well as the reduction in tariff and non-tariff barriers that has already taken place among the three countries under NAFTA, the impact of the agreement on the U.S. economy is likely to be moderate,” the ITC concluded in its report.
Still, the ITC’s model suggests the revised trade deal offers both economic growth — a 0.35 per cent boost to U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP), worth $68.2 billion — and employment growth (an estimated 176,000 jobs).
On the politically-sensitive matter of employment, the commission says the greatest gains likely would be for American workers with between 10 and 15 years of education. Workers with all levels of education may see their wages rise by an average of 0.27 per cent, the analysis concluded, with workers in manufacturing and mining benefitting the most.
Canada still enjoys old NAFTA benefits as new deal awaits ratification: Freeland

4 April
Freeland says Canada won’t reopen USMCA trade talks to address Democrat demands
Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland says Canada will not reopen trade talks to satisfy the demands of congressional Democrats, putting further pressure on the ratification process of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is throwing another spanner in the works: He is threatening to levy tariffs on Mexican-made cars – despite having explicitly granted Mexico protection from U.S. auto tariffs in a deal last year – suggesting he does not care if such an action causes the USMCA to fail.
These developments cast further uncertainty on an already shaky deal. The three countries agreed on USMCA, a renegotiation of the North American free-trade agreement (NAFTA), last year. But Congress must approve the pact for it to take effect.
Speaking in Washington before a NATO ministerial meeting on Thursday, Ms. Freeland responded to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s assertion earlier this week that Democrats would ratify USMCA only if it were reopened to toughen labour and environmental rules and roll back pharmaceutical patent protections.
… In side letters to USMCA last year, the United States agreed to exempt all Mexican and Canadian-made autos from any future Section 232 tariffs. Unlike the main text of the deal, the side letters came into effect immediately. Mr. Trump did not explain on Thursday how he would get around this. He acknowledged that his latest threat could complicate USMCA. “The USMCA is a great deal for everybody. But this is more important to me than the USMCA, so they’re going to have to live with it,” he said.

29 March
Ottawa considering new retaliation to end U.S. tariff fight, source says
Little progress has been made in convincing Trump to kill steel and aluminium tariffs
Canada is considering new ways to retaliate against the United States in hope of getting steel and aluminum tariffs lifted. … Canada has aggressively lobbied the White House, as well as anyone who has influence with U.S. President Donald Trump in the hopes of getting the tariffs lifted. But multiple sources say there has been little progress in that effort, and that Trump is quite pleased with himself and his tariffs.

25 March
Tariffs raise ‘serious questions’ about NAFTA ratification, Freeland says
U.S. Court of International Trade rules use of national security tariffs allowed, but appeal likely
Chrystia Freeland left a meeting with United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer Monday sounding like a minister in no hurry to ratify the revised North American trade deal while American steel and aluminum tariffs still apply to Canada–U.S. trade.
“The existence of these tariffs for many Canadians raises some serious questions about NAFTA ratification,” the foreign affairs minister told reporters gathered on the sidewalk outside the USTR’s Washington offices.
“In order to move ahead with that deal, I think Canadians feel the right thing is, there should be no 232 tariffs or retaliatory tariffs between our two countries. That was what I expressed clearly to Ambassador Lighthizer.”
Freeland paused — and appeared to be choosing her words carefully — before saying that steel tariffs were the central topic of her discussion with Lighthizer.

2018

2 December
Canada ‘not surprised’ Trump taking risky move in order to ratify new NAFTA
U.S. president says he’ll terminate the old trade deal, in a bid to force Congress to accept new pact
(CBC) Any relief Canadian officials felt over Friday’s signing of NAFTA may fade away, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced he’s taking a risky all-or-nothing approach to getting the new trade pact ratified by Congress.
As he left the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Trump told reporters on board Air Force One that he plans to terminate the current NAFTA agreement, meaning Congress will be forced to make a choice: either ratify the new agreement, or have no agreement with Canada and Mexico at all.
Getting the new NAFTA through Congress may be an uphill battle for the Trump administration, as Democrats won control of the House of Representatives in the fall midterm elections.
Three ways the new NAFTA deal kept changing after it was announced
More than just typos and technicalities were changed before the official documents were released
Several significant changes were made over the last two months during a process officials call a “legal scrub” — a detailed line-by-line review meant to catch technical errors and typos, to ensure the trade agreement could be implemented the way its negotiators intended.

CUSMA: Revised, Signed, & Ratification Coming (November 30, 2018)

Brett House, VP & Deputy Chief Economist, Scotia Bank
Juan Manuel Herrera, Economist
• Today, the heads of government of Canada, the United States, and Mexico signed the successor agreement to NAFTA, following the September 30, 2018 release of the accord’s draft text. The new pact, which will be known as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in Canada, and USMCA in the US, is set to come into effect on January 1, 2020. The side letters that protect Canada and Mexico from possible US tariffs on the auto sector come into force immediately.
• We anticipate that CUSMA will be ratified by each of three countries’ legislatures around mid-2019 and that any additional demands from the US Congress would be handled in side letters rather than necessitating a re-opening of the Agreement.
• The text of the Agreement released today is mostly unchanged from the initial version published at end-September, though there are two key revisions: (1) the language has been refined in the side letters on vehicles and parts, and in an annex to Chapter 2 of the Agreement, Mexico’s exemption from higher duties on non-originating vehicle exports to the US has been made stricter; and (2) a footnote on labour rights has been added in response to US Congressional Republican opposition to protections for sexual orientation and gender identity in the workplace. There appear to be some additional small changes whose potential import requires further study.
• Canada and Mexico have still not received an exemption from US tariffs on steel and aluminum products as the US presses for binding quotas that would cut imports from the two countries. Talks will continue and we expect that these tariffs will be lifted prior to the formal ratification of CUSMA in both countries.
Link to full Report

‘Battle’ over as Trudeau, Trump, Pena Nieto sign ‘new NAFTA’
USMCA, which Canada will call CUSMA, still not assured as ratification process heads to U.S. Congress
(CBC) The road to rewrite the North American trade agreement was a “battle,” U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto joined him for a signing ceremony on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires.
Nevertheless, “battles sometimes make great friendships, so it’s really terrific,” Trump said as the other two leaders looked on uneasily from behind podiums with the American presidential seal on the front.
Canada will change the order of the countries in its legal version of the name, putting Canada first (CUSMA). Trudeau referred to the deal Friday morning as the “new NAFTA.”
Trump felt strongly about changing the agreement’s name when his administration reworked the deal. He continued to refer to NAFTA as “terrible” on social media after the signing ceremony, saying “it will soon be gone.”
Canadian party leaders, politicians weigh in on the signing of NAFTA 2.0

27 November
With three days to go until signing ceremony, USMCA text still not final
Trump’s economic adviser says revised NAFTA deal to be signed Friday in Argentina
Three days away from the target date for all three countries to officially sign the revised North American trade agreement, Canada and the United States are still haggling over what the deal actually says.
An annex on duties Canada imposes on U.S. dairy, egg and poultry products that was posted online by the Trump administration contained language that differed from what Canadian negotiators believed they’d agreed to at the table. Confronted with the discrepancy, the American side stuck to its guns.
A signing ceremony does not signify that the deal is ratified and ready to take effect. The U.S. Congress has a lengthy ratification process, for example. The outcome of that process for USMCA is far from certain, particularly given the election of a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives earlier this month.
Congressional leaders recently confirmed that the existing U.S. Congress will not vote on the USMCA during its “lame duck” session between now and the end of the year.
… The only link to the full text available on the Global Affairs Canada website links to the USTR’s website.
Although the website refers to the ‘USMCA’, it’s not clear that Canada is completely on board with renaming NAFTA; Trump appeared to unilaterally come up with with title during a media appearance earlier this year. Freeland, for example, said last week that in Canadian documents it’s called “CUSMA”, putting Canada first, so she prefers to call it “the new NAFTA.”

6 October
Having to inform U.S. about possible future trade deals a ‘practical reality’: Morneau
(CTV) Signing on to an article in the new USMCA that requires Canada to consult the agreement’s other signatories when it embarks on a new trade deal with a “non-market” country is the “practical reality” in the business world, says Finance Minister Bill Morneau.
“In the previous agreement of course, the United States had the ability to leave NAFTA on six months’ notice, in the new agreement they have the ability to leave if they don’t like what we’re doing with China, we’re just going to be practical in dealing with this.”
He said that having this new wording in the deal “changes absolutely nothing,” and downplayed the concern voiced by some trade experts.
Seeking to dispel concern over this aspect of the deal in the days following it being announced, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada still intends to further trade talks with China. Canada has moved towards formally engaging China in free-trade talks, though they stalled late last year, with little movement since. Meanwhile, Trump has engaged China in a trade war, with indications that it’s set to ramp up now that NAFTA talks have wrapped.
If the federal government is serious about following through on a Canada-China trade deal, now’s the time to follow through and prove that the clause is meaningless, said former Canadian ambassador to the U.S. Derek Burney on CTV’s Question Period.

3 October

John Geddes of Maclean’s gives the most comprehensive account of the NAFTA negotiations to date.
How NAFTA was saved: The bitter fight and the final breakthrough
It started with a demand from Donald Trump and seemed like a zero-sum game. John Geddes on the long, divisive fight and the last minute deal.

Geoffrey Gertz: 5 things to know about USMCA, the new NAFTA
(Brookings) 1. Overall, the changes from the old NAFTA are mostly cosmetic. 2. The most revealing change might be the agreement’s new name. 3. The Trump administration got at least part of what it wanted.
4. While this might be a (modest) short-term victory for the U.S., it risks undermining America’s long-term interests….  Since Trump’s election, a number of U.S. allies have already taken steps to balance against U.S. power, and diversify their interests away from America. The U.S. approach to NAFTA’s renegotiation should only accelerate this trend. In other words, the important question was never whether the U.S. could shake down its trade partners to extract some modest gains, but rather whether it should.
5. There’s still a long way to go until USMCA becomes law. … The difficult step will be ratifying the agreement, which in the U.S. will mean a vote sometime in the next Congress. Clearly, how such votes proceed will be significantly influenced by this fall’s midterm elections. Yet whatever happens, there are reasons why both Republicans and Democrats may be reluctant to approve the deal. … (Of course, for their part, neither Canada nor Mexico will likely protest too strenuously if the U.S. fails to ratify the new pact, so long as it allows them to keep the existing NAFTA.)

Canada, U.S. have reached a NAFTA deal — now called the USMCA
Trudeau says it’s ‘a good day for Canada,’ but does not elaborate
Prime Minister of Canada welcomes new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
(Canadian Government) “The agreement-in-principle we reached today is good for Canada, good for Canadian businesses, and most importantly, good for Canadian workers and their families. When this improved agreement is implemented, North American trade will be preserved and modernized for the 21st century – just as we set out to do.”

Very complete coverage from CTV News:
Trudeau, Freeland herald USMCA as trilateral victory
The federal government is heralding the historic new USMCA trade pact between Canada, the United States, and Mexico as a good deal for all three countries, describing the new agreement in principle as a preservation of many aspects of the original NAFTA, that also stabilizes and modernizes the trade relationship for the realities of the times.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was joined by Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland, who led the Canadian team of negotiators throughout the often intense and sometimes dramatic talks, that ended with a varying degree of concessions and changes to the trade rules between the three countries.

Astonishing’ clause in new deal suggests Trump wants leverage over Canada-China trade talks: experts
The USMCA includes language that requires signatories to give notice if they plan to negotiate a free trade deal with a ‘non-market country’
(National Post)… the USMCA includes language that requires signatories to give notice if they plan to negotiate a free trade deal with a “non-market country,” and to allow the other two signatories at least a month to review any agreement before it is signed. It explicitly states that if one of the signatories enters into such an agreement, the other two have the right to withdraw from the USMCA with six months’ notice.

USMCA: A trade deal that does no harm, but breaks no ground
Kevin Carmichael: Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland achieved none of the things they identified as Canadian goals with the new pact

Buried behind the cows and cars: key changes in NAFTA 2.0
Higher drug prices, longer copyright terms, no reprieve on Buy America in new USMCA

30 September (10:13pm)

New NAFTA deal reached: Canada, U.S., Mexico finalize trade agreement, sources confirm

(Global news) A midnight deadline was beat (sic) with agreements to boost U.S. access to Canada’s dairy market and protect Canada from possible U.S. autos tariffs, two Canadian sources with direct knowledge of the talks said Sunday.
Reports say that Canada has made concessions on dairy market access that are slightly higher than under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Chapter 19, the dispute resolution mechanism, will be kept.
Word of the deal came as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau convened a 10 p.m. cabinet meeting to discuss NAFTA.
WaPost: Canada agrees to join trade accord with U.S. and Mexico, sending new NAFTA deal to Congress
(Reuters) – The United States and Canada forged a last-gasp deal on Sunday to salvage NAFTA as a trilateral pact with Mexico, rescuing a three-country, $1.2 trillion open-trade zone that had been about to collapse after nearly a quarter century. Since talks began more than a year ago, it was clear Canada and Mexico would have to make concessions in the face of Trump’s threats to tear up NAFTA and relief was palpable in both countries on Sunday that the deal was largely intact and had not fractured supply chains between weaker bilateral agreements.