U.S. Elections 2012 – the early days

Politico: 2012 Presidential Election
Politico Delegate Tracker
font color=”#800000″> Whenever a hint of boredom creeps in as we read endless analyses, we can always count on Conrad Black to entertain with his erudite, if extreme, opinions The Republicans send in the clowns
Watch out, Obama
(FT Magazine) Come November, many American men such as these – white, blue-collar and angry – will turn their back on the Democrats and vote Republican. The white working class deserting the Democrats to vote Republican is a trend that has accelerated under Barack Obama. Some telling  comments at the end of this article are worth reading
Electile Dysfunction: the inability to become aroused over any of the choices for President put forth by either party in the 2012 election year.
The Difference Between a Caucus & a Primary
Quote of the week of Feb. 13 : The US Republican Presidential Primaries constitute “The greatest competition of idiocy and ignorance that has ever been.” – Fidel Castro (whatever one may think of him, on this occasion he seems spot-on). Such perceptions cannot help but further erode America’s stature abroad. Nick’s gleanings
Worst Republican Field Ever? Not Likely
Canadian commentary regarding U.S. politics in this election season appears to be a breathless competition to be the most negative about those Republicans seeking the 2012 presidential nomination. To be sure, some critics occupy positions in the political spectrum that would cavil at a contending group of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan, claiming that they were inter alia too militaristic, a repeated failure as a one-term congressional representative, a “cowboy” masquerading as a politician, and a feckless movie actor upstaged by a chimpanzee.
Enemy of the State
by Nicholas Lemann
(New Yorker|Comment) For the past six months or so, the Republican-primary electorate has had a polite, patient, reliable, steadily employed suitor chatting with Mom and Dad in the parlor, while a series of more exciting but less appropriate rivals have come knocking at the back door. Mitt Romney will probably win in the end, but each of his serially surging competitors enjoys more immediate access to some essential region of the Republican soul.
… Paul’s vision reveals—with candor and specificity—what the G.O.P.’s rhetorical hostility to government would mean if it were rigorously put into practice. A minimal state, without welfare provisions for the unemployed. A quarter of a million federal workers—as a first installment—joining those unemployed. Foreign policy and national defense reduced to a few ballistic-missile submarines. The civil-rights legislation of the nineteen-sixties repealed as so much unwarranted government intrusion. As for the financial crisis, Paul would have countenanced no regulation that might have prevented it, no government stabilization of the financial system after it happened, and no special help for working people hurt by it. This is where the logic of government-shrinking leads.
The Great Republican Humor Crisis of 2012
Why is this crop of presidential candidates so incredibly unfunny?
Stephen Colbert shows Republicans how to draw a crowd
Florida primary’s winner-take-all delegate situation, explained
A brokered convention would see a new candidate — someone other than Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum — enter the remaining primaries or parachute in during the convention (if no existing candidate has secured a majority of delegates). In backroom deals, either based partly on the strength of his late primary performances or only on the discretion of party leaders, he would become the nominee.
A contested convention, on the other hand, would see no dark horse enter but none of the existing candidates arrive in Tampa with a 1,144 majority of delegates. Lots of wheeling and dealing would ensue, and after several ballots a nominee would emerge from the four current candidates. Karl Rove on Fox News

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Rick Santorum bows to the inevitable and quits Republican presidential race
• Santorum declares at event in Gettysburg: ‘Race is over for me’
• Vows to continue fight for social conservatives
• Romney to face Barack Obama for White House in November
8 April
Mitt Romney and Benjamin Netanyahu Are Old Friends:
A Friendship Dating to 1976 Resonates in 2012
The two young men had woefully little in common: one was a wealthy Mormon from Michigan, the other a middle-class Jew from Israel.
But in 1976, the lives of Mitt Romney and Benjamin Netanyahu intersected, briefly but indelibly, in the 16th-floor offices of the Boston Consulting Group, where both had been recruited as corporate advisers. At the most formative time of their careers, they sized each other up during the firm’s weekly brainstorming sessions, absorbing the same profoundly analytical view of the world.
That shared experience decades ago led to a warm friendship, little known to outsiders, that is now rich with political intrigue. Mr. Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, is making the case for military action against Iran as Mr. Romney, the likely Republican presidential nominee, is attacking the Obama administration for not supporting Mr. Netanyahu more robustly.
22 March

Mitt Romney’s Etch A Sketch Disaster
More on this from CNN: — Mitt Romney is in a bind. He must present himself as a staunch conservative in order to appeal to skeptical right-wing voters in the Republican presidential primary, but if he plays it too conservative, he’ll alienate moderate voters in the general election. Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom is not overly concerned, though. On Wednesday, he expressed confidence the campaign would hit the “reset button” after the nomination and redraw Romney as a moderate candidate. “Everything changes,” he explained on CNN, “It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and we start all over again.” Fehrnstrom’s comparison of his boss’ campaign to a toy tablet ignited a political firestorm.
19 March
Why Rick Santorum and David Axelrod Agree About Mitt Romney
Fending off Romney’s attacks in Illinois, Santorum is reaching for a new weapon: the Obama campaign’s playbook.
(Slate) The fact that Santorum is now cribbing from the Democratic playbook is precisely why some Republicans fear a long slog of a primary will damage their chances to beat Barack Obama. Not only is Santorum potentially weakening the likely nominee, but by parroting the administration’s critique he lends weight to their claims. If Romney is their opponent, the Obama team will be ready to hit “replay” on the Santorum clip this fall.
7 March
Virginia Heffernan: Ron Paul’s pointless Internet presidency
This time around, for Paul, the Internet rally seems to have been sound and fury signifying little. Paul’s big hopes for Alaska, Idaho and North Dakota were dashed on Super Tuesday, and he has yet to score a victory in a single contest in this election.
However, he’s still logging mindshare in the blogosphere.
Slouching towards victory? Mitt Romney wins six on Super Tuesday but gets labelled a loser
(Daily Mail) … In terms of delegates – the only measure that really counts – Romney is on 386, Santorum on 158, Newt Gingrich on 94 and Ron Paul on 60.
Super Tuesday fallout: Will the South ever vote for Mitt Romney?
(CSM) On paper, Mitt Romney can clinch the nomination without winning many die-hard red states. But a surge by Rick Santorum in the South could spell big trouble for the frontrunner.
Joe the Plumber’ wins Ohio primary, faces tough race in November
Wurzelbacher will now face US Rep. Marcy Kaptur in November.
29 February
From Strength to Strength
(Foreign Policy) Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie’s recent article in Foreign Policy urges the Republican presidential aspirants to attack President Barack Obama more vigorously on his national security record. It’s a debate that the president and Democrats should welcome.
28 February
Romney holds off Santorum in Michigan, easily wins Arizona
(MSNBC News) … Romney’s victory in Michigan carries symbolic importance after the contest had been transformed into a key test of his strength as the campaign’s frontrunner.
GOP’s worst nightmare — a contested convention
But New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Romney-supporter … said he doubts the race will go all the way to the convention floor. … “Hasn’t happened in the Republican Party since Wendell Willkie, I don’t think it’s going to be happening in 2012.”
13 February
This is so over the top, we couldn’t resist including it: Sarah Palin is the Most Powerful Female Politician in the World – so much for the credibility of Yahoo! News
8 February
Santorum claims momentum with wins in three states
(Reuters) – Former U.S. senator Rick Santorum rejuvenated his presidential hopes on Tuesday with a shocking sweep of the three nominating contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, dealing a blow to wounded front-runner Mitt Romney.
Democrats’ chances of retaking the House improve
Democrats have been saying for a long time that the House could be in play in 2012, and now some Republicans are starting to join them. And last week, a member of the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board opined that the GOP majority could be in jeopardy if Republicans don’t make it a priority.
3 February
Trump endorses Romney for US president
Republican frontrunner gets billionaire’s support but faces criticism for remarks suggesting he is indifferent to poor.
The endorsement came as Romney went on the defensive after a Wednesday interview with CNN in which he said he was “not very concerned about the very poor” because they have an “ample safety net”. Romney later said that his comments were an accidental [as opposed to an intentional?] “mis-statement” of a position he had repeated throughout his campaign, the AP news agency reported. Paul Krugman believes Romney Isn’t Concerned, while Foreign Policy’s Election 2012 Weekly Report notes sardonically that “a highly publicized endorsement from Donald Trump on Thursday may not have been the best way to combat the perception that he’s out of touch with economically struggling Americans.”
31 January
Romney Wins Florida Primary to Reclaim Lead in Race
(Bloomberg) Mitt Romney won Florida (BEESFL)’s Republican presidential primary, re-establishing himself as the front- runner for his party’s nomination in a race that rival Newt Gingrich has pledged to drag on for months.
Romney told supporters in Tampa tonight he is ready “to lead this party,” and that Republicans will be united once the nomination is decided. “A competitive primary does not divide us, it prepares us,” he said.
Florida Primary 2012: What Could Go Wrong? 5 Past Election Controversies
28 January
Obama Loves Romney Adviser’s Book
‘The World America Made’ by Robert Kagan.
(The Daily Beast) President Obama has taken to a view that America’s decline is a myth, as portrayed in the forthcoming book, The World America Made’ by neoconservative historian, Robert Kagan, who—coincidentally—serves as an adviser to Mitt Romney.
Gingrich promises US ‘moon base’ by 2020
(Al Jazeera) Republican contenders spar over US space programme during Thursday’s debate, with Newt Gingrich promising “moon colony”. … A whopping budget deficit and cuts to the military do not seem to have dampened Gingrich’s astronomically expensive plans for a lunar colony with 13,000 residents. We wonder how Newt feels about coverage in Al Jazeera.
23 January
Stephen Colbert Ends His Exploratory Committee For President of the United States of South Carolina
(ABC) Colbert announced his plans to form an exploratory committee to look into a run in South Carolina earlier this month, in a stunt meant to draw attention to the problems of independent expenditure committees, commonly referred to as super PAC’s, in political contests. In order to make his “exploration” legal, Colbert announced he would be handing over control of his super PAC, “Americans For A Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow” to fellow late-night comedy central star Jon Stewart.
Florida’s GOP debate: Old issues redefined by local interests
Several segments of the debate, and many of the candidates’ lines of attack, were designed to resonate with Florida Republicans, a particular sub-species of the GOP made up of snowbirds, Cuban exiles and Exhibit ‘A’ victims of the housing meltdown.
19 January
Andrew Coyne: A less comedic balance in the political marketplace
It’s the U.S. campaign finance laws, in other words, that have become the biggest joke. Whatever restrictions the candidates and parties are under as to how they raise and spend funds, the Super PACs can raise funds in any amount from virtually any source and spend it in any way they see fit, to exactly the same purpose. We usually like what Mr. Coyne says, but the logic of this proposal completely escapes us;   his take on the  role of  third-party political groups in Canada also appears to us to be somewhat dismissive.  
The Election 2012 Weekly Report: And then there were four
Perry ends presidential run, backs Gingrich
(Reuters) – Texas Governor Rick Perry dropped out of the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination on Thursday after a series of gaffes and controversies undercut the campaign of the one-time frontrunner. He endorsed former rival Newt Gingrich. Perry: the candidate who couldn’t shoot straight
15 January
Huntsman giving up U.S. presidential bid
Former ambassador to China set to back Romney in Republican race
Huntsman was conservative in matters of taxes and the reach of the federal government, but he was out of step with most conservatives in his support of civil unions for gay couples. On matters of science, he poked fun at his skeptical rivals in a pre-debate tweet: “To be clear: I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy.”
In the end, Huntsman didn’t seem to register, crazy or otherwise, with Republicans looking for an alternative to Romney or a winner against Obama. Huntsman was routinely at the bottom of national polls, barely registering at 1 or 2 per cent, a reflection of the faint impression he made in the Republican debates.
Rodrigue Tremblay: Of Candidates and Negative Campaigning
In current American politics, money and wars of aggression abroad seem to rule the day. When a candidate’s fortune turns sour, the natural reflex is to spend $millions in negative ads to destroy adversaries and/or to issue hawkish policy statements with the promise to start new wars abroad and even to rekindle old ones. The motto seems to be that “If you destroy me with your negative ads; I will destroy you with mine.”—This is truly amazing.
Lobbyists have always played an important role in U.S. politics, but with the floodgates of money presently wide open, their work has been considerably facilitated. Indeed, since the U.S. Supreme Court’s (5-4) January-20-2010- decision to allow unlimited amounts of money to be spent by corporations or labor unions during elections under the specious pretext that such legal organizations are “people”, money rules unimpeded in American politics. This has the more or less unanticipated consequence of raising negative campaigning to a new level, to the delight of corporate media which rake in hundreds of $millions in political advertising or propaganda. Can democracy survive such an onslaught of money? This remains to be seen.
As for the U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney, for instance, during the recent primary campaign in the state of Iowa, he was confronted with a sudden surge of popularity of one of his opponents, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Romney’s camp and its allies went to work and pumped more than $2.8 million in a TV air deluge of negative ads against candidate Gingrich, arguing that the former Speaker had “more baggage than the airlines” and spelling out a series of flaws in Gingrich’s long political career.
6 January
The Election 2012 Weekly Report: Iowa and the aftermath
(Foreign Policy) Real Clear Politics’ New Hampshire poll average shows Romney with a commanding 20 point lead over Paul, followed by Santorum, Huntsman, Gingrich, and Perry — in that order. Then it’s on to South Carolina for the Jan. 21 primary, where Romney currently holds a 19 point lead over Santorum, his closest challenger.
As the latest “non-Romney” to emerge in the race, Santorum’s foreign-policy views are beginning to receive more scrutiny. In particular, Santorum has staked out a position even more extreme than Gingrich on the legitimacy of Palestinian aspirations for statehood.
4 January
Who is Rick Santorum?
(The Economist|Democracy in America) there are some indications that Mr Santorum is more than just the latest not-Romney. David Brooks had a widely read op-ed yesterday praising the former senator’s concern for the working class: “I do believe that he represents sensibility and a viewpoint that is being suppressed by the political system.” Ross Douthat concurs that Mr Santorum has his strengths: “He has deep blue-collar roots, a more substantial legislative record than many of his rivals, and his campaign has been the only one to even try to hit the right-wing communitarian notes that Mike Huckabee struck so effectively four years ago.” And as Dave Weigel notes, Rick Santorum spent $1.65 for every vote he received in the caucus; Rick Perry spent $817. That would seem to suggest that Iowa voters were drawn to Mr Santorum’s particular message, despite the shoestring budget. … if Mr Santorum does hang in long enough to have a serious shot at the nomination, it would be a fascinating outcome—a win for the socially conservative, big-government side of the Republican party, after three years in which much of the discourse has been dominated by the fiscally conservative, isolationist, anti-government strain.
Farewell Michele
(Foreign Policy) After a disappointing 6th-place finish in Iowa last night, Michele Bachmann just dropped out of the presidential primary, promising to “continue fighting to defeat the president’s agenda of socialism.” … Bachmann will now return to her normal job, safeguarding the nation’s national security secrets. The talking heads at CBS got it wrong Why Michele Bachmann didn’t drop out
Romney wins Iowa nail-biter [by 8 votes] – Update: But he didn’t Rick Santorum Finishes Ahead Of Mitt Romney: Iowa Caucus Results
Team Obama sees signs of Romney weakness
(Politico) Romney and his backers spent millions in combined campaign and PAC ad spending, but the Massachusetts governor scored only about a quarter of the caucus vote, giving Team Obama a first chance to analyze a possible opponent’s weaknesses in the first live-fire political drill of the 2012 campaign. The total number of votes among Iowa Republicans was expected to be about 120,000 — roughly half of the 239,000 Iowans who turned out to back Obama, Hillary Clinton and other Democrats last time.
(NBC News) Perry to return to Texas, assess campaign
After his disappointing fifth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses — and after spending more than $4 million on TV ads in the state — Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced he was heading home to the Lone Star State to “assess the results” and “determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race.”
From the Economist’s Democracy in America, Out of Iowa, a first-hand account of what happened at some of the caucuses
2 January
Iowa Poll Shows Paul-Romney-Santorum Dead Heat
(HuffPost) The latest poll of Iowa’s likely Republican caucus-goers provides more evidence of a race headed toward a photo finish, with Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and a surging Rick Santorum running within two percentage points of each other.
Santorum sends Iowa caucus rivals scrambling
(Reuters) – With time running out, rivals of surging Republican Rick Santorum raised doubts about his conservative record on Monday in hopes of heading off a last-minute victory by the former senator a day before Iowa kicks off the 2012 presidential election season.

2011

30 December
Ryan Lizza: Top Five Electoral Outcomes Journalists Are Secretly Rooting For
(The New Yorker) Let’s be honest, this has been an unusually fun campaign to cover. If reporters had secretly gathered early in 2011 and devised a list of G.O.P. contenders they wanted to cover, they never would have put together a group as colorful as what they eventually got. They certainly never would have predicted that Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul would all enjoy spells at the top of the polls. The people who cover American Presidential politics end 2011 a blessed and thankful group.
And yet there is the terrible realization that all this excitement and drama could come crashing down around us in less than two weeks if the sober and reasonable Mitt Romney ends the year of Republican nonsense by winning Iowa and New Hampshire and securing the nomination before things even really get started.
30 December
Are journalists US 2012 campaign insiders?
(Al Jazeera) As the media coverage of the US presidential campaign intensifies, we ask if “embedded” journalists can do their job.
29 December
Gail Collins: Feel Free to Ignore Iowa
To summarize: On Tuesday, there will be a contest to select the preferred candidate of a small group of people who are older, wealthier and whiter than American voters in general, and more politically extreme than the average Iowa Republican. The whole world will be watching. The cookies will be excellent.
27 December
In Iowa, the campaign begins, Really
(NYT) The presidential candidates’ flurries of activity may seem similar. But each is pursuing a different strategy to woo supporters to the caucuses on Jan. 3.
22 December
Voters leaving Republican, Democratic parties in droves
(USA Today) More than 2.5 million voters have left the Democratic and Republican parties since the 2008 elections, while the number of independent voters continues to grow. The trend is acute in states that are key to next year’s presidential race. In the eight swing states that register voters by party, Democrats’ registration is down by 800,000 and Republicans’ by 350,000. Independents have gained 325,000.
20 December
Condi Rice: Perfect VP Candidate?
Clearly, the 2012 election is shaping up to be all about the U.S. economy. Everything Mr. Obama has tried has failed, so American voters are looking for someone who can actually fix the problems. But what the Republican presidential hopefuls lack is foreign-policy experience.
19 December
What If He Wins?
Imagining a Ron Paul victory in Iowa.
(Slate) … Paul will stick in the race. Mitt Romney will get to contrast himself with the new-new-new-new insurgent. In that case, the GOP base and donor class will have the easiest pick-a-door choice it’s ever had. Do you go with the guy from Massachusetts who’s not all that convincing of a Reagan clone, or do you go with the guy who wants legal heroin and a pissed-off Benjamin Netanyahu?
Paul leads in Iowa as Gingrich support erodes: poll
(Reuters) Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich suffered a big drop in support in Iowa with Ron Paul taking the lead weeks before a key caucus in the state, according to a Democratic polling firm.
The libertarian-leaning Paul’s unusual rise to the top of a poll comes amid a strong campaign in Iowa, the pollsters said. But they said his popularity depended heavily on the youth vote and he trailed both Romney and Gingrich among older voters.
16 December
Rivals pounce on Gingrich at last Iowa debate
(Reuters) – Republican presidential candidates pounced on front-runner Newt Gingrich on Thursday to try to blunt his surge at the last debate before Iowa launches the 2012 U.S. election season.
Gingrich is in a tight race with rivals Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in Iowa less than three weeks before the state’s Republicans decide on January 3 who they want as their presidential candidate. It is anybody’s guess at this stage as to who will win.
14 December
Good for Tom Friedman!
Newt, Mitt, Bibi and Vladimir
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
(NYT) I have a simple motto when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I love both Israelis and Palestinians, but God save me from some of their American friends — those who want to love them to death, literally.
That thought came to mind last week when Newt Gingrich took the Republican competition to grovel for Jewish votes — by outloving Israel — to a new low by suggesting that the Palestinians are an “invented” people and not a real nation entitled to a state.
This was supposed to show that Newt loves Israel more than Mitt Romney, who only told the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom that he would move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem because “I don’t seek to take actions independent of what our allies think is best, and if Israel’s leaders thought that a move of that nature would be helpful to their efforts, then that’s something I’ll be inclined to do. … I don’t think America should play the role of the leader of the peace process. Instead, we should stand by our ally.”
That’s right. America’s role is to just applaud whatever Israel does, serve as its A.T.M. and shut up. We have no interests of our own. And this guy’s running for president?
11 December
John McCain: Donald Trump debate doesn’t rate
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) became the latest Republican to voice skepticism about the upcoming Republican presidential debate moderated by Donald Trump, as he questioned on Tuesday whether the GOP hopefuls should be going on an “obscure network.”
4 December
Newt Gingrich gains after Herman Cain drops out of Republican race
New favourite could hurt party’s election chances as polls reveal distrust for liberal challenger Mitt Romney
1 December
Republicans Make Pipeline Jobs Issue For Obama
(Planet Ark) Republicans in Congress signaled on Wednesday that they plan to keep the Keystone XL pipeline alive as a tool for skewering President Barack Obama on jobs, the top political issue ahead of the 2012 elections.
28 November
How the Republican presidential candidates are benefiting from their “gaffes”: They’re not unforgivable, just imprudent.
By Christopher Hitchens
(Slate) Forced to look at this picture for a quaking second or two, one sort of understands why it is that people want to buy time, and to keep the warm and reassuring pack together. This would probably lead to an America where calm Mormon management would seem suddenly “normal.” It remains to be seen whether such a weird outcome would be worth a decline in the real currency of the gaffe.
13 November
Republican debate highlights foreign policy differences
Saturday night’s GOP presidential debate focused on national security and foreign policy. There were some important differences among the candidates, but all promised to be tougher than President Obama. As might be expected, not all candidates have their facts straight.
10 November
Rick Perry ‘oops’ debate moment: Has it done him in?
(CSM) Rick Perry floundered during Wednesday night’s GOP presidential debate and has analysts wondering if it’s all over for his campaign. Some financial supporters are having second thoughts
1 November
If harassment claims sink Herman Cain, which GOP rival will benefit?
As Herman Cain’s response to sexual harassment claims continues to evolve, there’s no guarantee that his popularity will slip, even now. Will his rivals be able to lure his supporters?