Wednesday Night #2182

More entries to continue the Janus theme
Eurasia Group’s Top Global Risks 2024
Here are brief summaries of the 10 most important risks that will preoccupy world leaders, business decision-makers, and the rest of us in 2024, according to [EG President Ian] Bremmer and [EG Chairman Cliff] Kupchan.
The full report, Top Risks, is Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. This year’s report was published on 8 January 2024.
Politically it’s the Voldemort of years. The annus horribilis. The year that must not be named.
Three wars will dominate world affairs: Russia vs. Ukraine, now in its third year; Israel vs. Hamas, now in its third month; and the United States vs. itself, ready to kick off at any moment.

And no mention of Climate change? Media around the world have suddenly focused on Tuesday’s report from the European climate agency Copernicus: 2023 is the hottest year on record, with global temperatures close to the 1.5°C limit – Global temperatures reached exceptionally high levels in 2023.
How long will the concern last, given the geopolitical crises that daily demand attention?

Nouriel Roubini: Where Will the Global Economy Land in 2024?
Heading into 2024, most economists and market analysts have adopted a baseline scenario in which most major economies avoid both a recession and renewed inflation – the much-desired “soft landing.” But the current encouraging consensus could still be derailed by any number of factors, not least geopolitics.

15-19 January
The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024

U.S. 2024 election year
On  the third anniversary of the January 6th Capitol attack, President Biden framed the election as an existential choice for U.S. democracy.
Biden, in Valley Forge speech, hits Trump hard as threat to democracy
The address marks a new phase of the Biden campaign that will emphasize Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election
It comes as a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll shows nearly a third of Republicans believe the false claim that the FBI organized the riot.
First primary is Iowa on 15 January
Say it ain’t snow. Iowa’s forecast is terrible and it’s impacting the campaign.
If you like a foot of snow and single digit temperatures, then this is the caucus for you.
BREAKING NEWS: Christie ends his anti-Trump crusade
Jeremy Kinsman: Voter and candidate psychology in Election Year, USA
The likely Biden-Trump rematch in 2024 will further expose a divided America
… Haley would still be a long shot for the nomination, though arguably a better Republican candidate for the general election. Trump dismisses her as a mere annoyance, calling the ex-Governor and ex-UN Ambassador “birdbrain.” But if she then wins in South Carolina in February, and, as the state’s ex-Governor, she just might, then the probably decisive showdown will occur on “super Tuesday,” March 5, when 16 states choose delegates to the Republican Convention in Milwaukee in mid-July. …
Doug Sweet is in Seattle, but forwards A ‘National and Global Maelstrom’ Is Pulling Us Under (see Long reads) with the comment: I won’t be able to join you tonight, but I wanted to share this NYT column from Tom Edsall with you. It’s either thoroughly depressing or depressingly thorough, but it’s essential reading for anyone trying to figure out how the U.S. got into the mess it’s in and what it might take to get out of it. Spoiler alert: the election of either Biden or Trump wouldn’t seem to offer a solution.

Europe: elections to watch in 2024
(Economist Intelligence Unit EIU) Europe will see nine parliamentary elections in 2024, of which four are likely to result in a notable change in government and/or policy direction
Europe’s big political stories to watch in 2024
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What are the big political stories in Europe 2024?

India
C Uday Bhaskar sends links to two recent articles with the message “At the outset – belated greetings for the New Year… though my sense is that the bleakness and despondency that plagued 2023 will persist though this year…and beyond – do wish I could be more optimistic.”
From Myanmar to Pakistan, India’s possible security challenges in 2024
Conflicts in the past two years, whether Ukraine-Russia or Hamas-Israel, illustrate the necessity of anticipating out-of-the-box security exigencies
Litmus test for India’s politico-diplomatic acumen
India is aspiring to be counted among the great powers, but this can’t be realised if its military capability remains dependent on external infusion.

Ottawa, Honda to hold talks on potential EV factory in Canada
The Globe & Mail reports that “Federal officials are planning to meet this week with Honda representatives about the possibility of the Japanese automaker building an electric-vehicle factory in Canada”
Judy Roberts seems to be the only person who caught “a VERY short clip on The National of [Peter Frise], commenting very authoritatively on Honda issue.” Peter responded: “Yup – they called me all hot and bothered about getting an interview so I made time for them and we talked for about 30 minutes. …they couldn’t get me to say what they wanted me to say…so they cut it to about 10 seconds.” Which answers why, despite persistent trawling of CBC sites, I could not find anything. We would really like to hear Peter’s thoughts.
When I Googled Peter + Frise + news, here is what came up -from Singapore:
Serangoon Gardens resident & adopted K9 German Shepherd [named Peter] allegedly attacked by neighbour’s Bichon Frise.

Hard to believe, but the Quebec Ministry of Education seems to have done something right: The English Parents’ Committee Association (EPCA Quebec) applauds the Quebec government for taking the bold step of announcing a $300 million academic catch-up plan designed to prepare students for success throughout the remainder of the school year and the upcoming summer period. The Minister of Education, Bernard Drainville, announced comprehensive remedial measures for students, demonstrating a proactive approach to addressing the diverse needs of learners across the province. EPCA Quebec is in complete agreement with the government’s commitment to providing students with critical resources and support, particularly those students facing educational challenges.
On the other hand: Denis Hurtubise, vice-president academic at the University of Sudbury writes Quebec’s move to force teaching French at McGill and Concordia could have dire consequences Without additional funds, the move could lead to reduced course choice and the replacement of specialists with French teachers, harming the quality of education.

Chris Neal is leading International Organizations in a Changing World an online study group at McGill’s Community of Lifelong Learning. Ten two-hour sessions, with 18 lectures, Wednesday mornings 9:30 – 11:30 a.m., each followed by Q & A and discussion, plus a wrap-up two-hour review & discussion. First meeting was this Wednesday, January 10, 9:30 – 11:30 a.m. A few places are still available. It’s $120 for the package. All in English. Although MCLL participants are mostly seniors, all ages are welcome. A study group I moderated in 2022 included many undergraduates, which makes for a wonderful exchange.
Contact Chris if you want to know more. – If only the sessions were not on Wednesday!

Andrew Caddell, President of the Task Force on Linguistic Policy /Comité Spécial sur la Politique Linguistique is pleased to present the Task Force’s new website https://protectourrights.ca/ and reminds us that the Task Force is “taking Bill 96 and the Attorneys General of Quebec and Canada to court with Bergman and Associates and will appear in court later in 2024”.
His weekly column This year’s Bye-Bye didn’t disappoint contrasts the liveliness and popularity of the annual show with the decline of CBC English-language TV.
As per my usual habit, and that of three million plus Quebecers, I watched the 55th edition of “Le Bye-Bye,” on New Year’s Eve, the annual satirical variety show savaging the powerful and poking fun at Quebec’s cultural landscape.

Sandy W. is in Paris for a family wedding and posted “Hey FB world: What’s your favorite thing to do in Paris”? The response is worthy of the Guide to the Lonely Planet – and then some. If she does everything suggested, she will be away at least a year! We wish her a fun trip and look forward to hearing what she did do.

Varia
Lisa Napoli has been working as a “memoir coach” to help trigger memories and focus them for the personal memoir. She is “currently working on a memoir for a prominent New York businessperson. I’m also editing another for a prominent broadcaster.”
She recently gave an in-person workshop at the Palm Springs Writers Guild. What fun it would have been to participate!
Triggering Memory – You’ve been living a fascinating life. Or, at least one you’d like to record, in some form or fashion, for the next generation. How do you collect your thoughts & achievements when you can’t even remember what you had for lunch yesterday? Lisa Napoli will help you.
Aria Mia Loberti’s Guide Dog “Ingrid” Makes History As First Dog For The Blind To Walk Red Carpet At Golden Globes
American actress Aria Mia Loberti and her guide dog named Ingrid have made history on the red carpet at the Golden Globes. Aria is legally blind, and Ingrid is always by her side, including escorting her down the red carpet.
The six-year-old black Labrador retriever is the first guide dog for the blind to walk the red carpet
Anyone planning to visit Quebec City? Check these out.
13 murales qui égayent les quartiers de Québec / 13 Murals to See in Québec City – simply gorgeous.
The year has started with aviation stories with happy endings. Following last week’s Miracle at Haneda: how cabin crew pulled off great escape from Japan plane fire,  this week saw the Alaska Airlines blowout that could have been a major tragedy ended happily for all except Boeing’s 737-9 Max. In both cases, all credit to the pilots and crews.
Phone falls 16,000 feet from Alaska Air flight, still works
Who remembers the great ads TIMEX: STILL TICKING
In this commercial for Timex, John Cameron Swayze visits Acapulco, Mexico, for a torture test to prove how waterproof a Timex watch really is. As Swayze looks on, high-diving champion Raul Garcia leaps into the sea from the top of Acapulco’s renowned La Perla cliffs with a Timex strapped on his wrist. When he emerges from the water, his Timex is still ticking. “Is it any wonder that more people buy Timex than any other watch in the world?” Swayze asks.

Long reads
Earth shattered global heat record in ’23 and it’s flirting with warming limit, European agency says
Earth last year shattered global annual heat records, flirted with the world’s agreed-upon warming threshold and showed more signs of a feverish planet, the European climate agency said Tuesday.
The European climate agency Copernicus said the year was 1.48 degrees Celsius (2.66 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That’s barely below the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit that the world hoped to stay within in the 2015 Paris climate accord to avoid the most severe effects of warming.
A ‘National and Global Maelstrom’ Is Pulling Us Under
Thomas B. Edsall
The coming election will be held at a time of insoluble cultural and racial conflict; a two-tier economy, one growing, the other stagnant; a time of inequality and economic immobility; a divided electorate based on educational attainment — taken together, a toxic combination pushing the country into two belligerent camps.
I wrote to a range of scholars, asking whether the nation has reached a point of no return.
The responses varied widely, but the level of shared pessimism was striking.
From Houthis to Hezbollah, a look at the Iran-allied groups rallying to arms around Middle East
Missiles, rockets and drones struck targets around the Middle East and a senior Hezbollah figure was killed by an Israeli airstrike as the United States, Israel and others clashed with Iran-allied militant groups — with attacks hitting in vital Red Sea shipping lanes, along Israeli-Lebanon borders emptied by fleeing residents and around the region’s crowded capitals and U.S. military installations.
How the best chance to win the Ukraine war was lost
By Yaroslav Trofimov, the chief foreign affairs correspondent of the Wall Street Journal. This article is adapted from his new book, Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine’s War of Independence.
All the hardware that Ukraine was begging for in 2022 — Leopard and Abrams tanks, Bradleys and Strykers, and Patriot batteries — was eventually provided the following year. “A mountain of steel,” is how U.S. officials termed it.
But, by then, it was a different war. The Ukrainian offensives of 2023 gained little ground against an entrenched, prepared and more numerous enemy. Putin’s nuclear brinkmanship had gained him time — not just to prevent a military collapse, but also for indispensable military aid to Ukraine to get caught up in the United States’ own domestic politics.