Wednesday Night #2188

Of course our main preoccupations have been -and likely will continue to be- Russia‘s continuing and accelerating belligerency, notably the latest scare U.S. Warns Allies Russia Could Put a Nuclear Weapon Into Orbit This Year and the report from the researchers at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24.
Yes, add to those cheery thoughts the Russian takeover of Avdiivka days ahead of the two-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 2022. While, for the latter, the rout was a bleak reminder of its reliance on the supply of Western weapons and ammunition, as hold-ups in the delivery of expected aid by endless political infighting in Washington* have left it short of provisions and handicapped in the fight. Ukraine outnumbered, outgunned, ground down by relentless Russia
However, not everyone sees the future as so bleak, take comfort from Ukraine remains stronger than you might think by Michael O’Hanlon, Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy at the Brookings Institution.
* Ross Douthat: The Best Case for Ukraine Aid (17 Feb) and What the Ukraine Aid Debate Is Really About (21 Feb). The latter is an informed presentation of the US policy and defense dilemma equating
obligations to Ukraine and Taiwan. (See Long reads below).

Capturing the headlines since Friday is the murder of Alexsei Navalny, conjecture about the future of the Russian opposition and the role of Yulia Navalnaya; Israeli intransigence over all proposals of intermediate ceasefires to end the appalling slaughter of Palestinians, the convoluted-at least to us-thinking behind the US veto of UN resolutions proposing ceasefires, or their equivalent.

The Red Sea crisis and its impact on international trade continues: Maybe China can be persuaded to intervene?
Red Sea crisis sees China’s brisk business in Africa waver under high shipping costs amid Houthi attacks
China has particular exposure to Africa, with investments reaching rising by 4.4 per cent to US$1.8 billion in the first half of 2023
(SCMP) Avoiding attacks in the Red Sea has raised the cost of business for Chinese firms in East Africa, which borders the embattled waterway, and shaken the production of companies that cannot afford the more costly alternative transport options, analysts said.
Chinese traders are gingerly eyeing the use of circuitous air, land and sea routes for safety, hiring risk-tolerant so-called feeder shipping lines or producing less until the attacks by Houthi militants stop.
“Chinese companies with a substantial presence in African markets are facing heightened uncertainties and complexities as they navigate these disruptions, prompting a re-evaluation of their shipping strategies and contingency plans to mitigate the impact on their operations,” said Gary Lau, chairman of the Hong Kong Association of Freight Forwarding and Logistics.

The circus aka Trump’s trials continues and his behaviour is -as expected- increasingly bizarre.
It was another wild week in the legal world of Donald Trump, with action in all four of the leading GOP presidential candidate’s criminal cases — including at the Supreme Court. Plus, the former president and his civil co-defendants (including his adult sons) got hit with a whopping ruling in the civil fraud case.
Judge Arthur Engoron ordered more than $350 million in penalties in that New York civil case, along with temporary New York business bars for Eric, Don Jr. and Trump himself. In a scathing opinion, the state judge observed the defendants’ “complete lack of contrition and remorse borders on pathological.”
So, bouncing right back, here come the $399 (US) gold sneakers – not to mention the GoFundMe To Pay His $355 Million Legal Fine -it had raised more than $250,000 as of Sunday morning. (Sigh!) Will those donations be tax deductible?

Yet another reason to hope, pray and work for Trump’s elimination from the presidential race.
The Trump Effect Takes Europe – If disaster can be averted in this year’s US presidential election, a second-term Biden administration will be able to count on a much better partner in Europe, owing to the mobilizing effect of Donald Trump’s candidacy. European leaders are finally realizing that they urgently need to get their act together.

Canada has announced a donation of hundreds of drones to help the war effort in Ukraine Does this count as part of the NATO contribution?
John Ivison: Finally, signs that Liberals are waking from their sleepy approach to defence
This government should be judged on its results not intentions, but its investment in drones for Ukraine has bought it temporary goodwill
Tasha Kheiriddin: Liberals denigrate Canada, no wonder the military can’t recruit
Young people want to work for organizations with purpose

Tony Deutsch‘s contribution (he sent the link) to the no words department: Stephen Harper: Israel’s war is just, Hamas must surrender or be eliminated
It is foolish to think a two-state solution will emerge while so many Palestinians still reject the existence of a Jewish state

As the car theft crisis seems to have pushed the housing/homeless crisis, notwithstanding other grave issues, you’ll be happy to know that The government of Canada has announced $15 million in federal funding to combat the recent rise in auto theft, officials said Wednesday.
Minister of Public Safety Dominic Leblanc, Minister of Transport Pablo Rodriguez, Mayor of Montreal Valerie Plante, RCMP commissioner Mike Duheme and Montreal police Chief Fady Dagher said at a news conference in Montreal that $9.1 million will be allocated to provincial, territorial and municipal forces through the Contribution Program to Combat Serious and Organized Crime (CPCSOC).

Last week there was some discussion of the increasingly likely possibility that Denis Coderre will run for the leadership of the LPQ. His appearance on The Corner Booth with Aaron Rand and Bill Brownstein is worth watching. We do not understand why neither Brownstein nor Rand took him up on his gratuitous statement that ‘When somebody serves me in English, I refuse to buy’, which seemed to come out of nowhere.

Varia
Fun story!
Documents reveal Abraham Lincoln pardoned Biden’s great-great-grandfather
Pure Gossip!
From Tucker Carlson to Johnny Depp, a celebrity bromance is the must-have accessory for the modern dictator
The men had suffered career setbacks, and were in desperate need of love – thank goodness, then, for the open arms of Putin and MBS
The NYT has a story $89 Million Can’t Fix Her Mistakes whose eye-catching headline is followed by
identification of the art-world mogul Louise Blouin. Not of major interest to the Times story is Louise Blouin’s Montreal connection including her (first) marriage to David M. Stewart and (second) marriage to John McCall MacBain, Canadian billionaire, mega philanthropist and current chancellor of McGill (whose Wikipedia entry has no reference to Louise!). The article took us down a number of rabbit holes. Although few current Wednesday Nighters will remember it, Louise attended at least one WN with her mother who was very obviously actively seeking wealthy, influential husbands for Louise and her sister(s)-one of whom, Hélène, married Paul Desmarais Jr.

Long reads
“A film is a weapon on time delay” — an interview with “Navalny” director Daniel Roher

What the Ukraine Aid Debate Is Really About
…a spokesman, at the Munich Security Conference presented the case for the populist critique of American support for Ukraine’s war effort not isolationist but Asia-first, more concerned about the Taiwan Strait than the Donbas

Biden can end the bombing of Gaza right now. Here’s how
Mr President, make the call. End this genocide

How Israel’s war went wrong
The conflict in Gaza has become “an era-defining catastrophe.” It’s increasingly clear what — and who — is to blame.
and related piece by Israeli journalist Yuval Abraham ‘A mass assassination factory’: Inside Israel’s calculated bombing of Gaza
Two years of war in Ukraine – then and now (photo essay)
Saturday marks the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Then and now photographs show the extent of the changes the country has undergone since Russian forces attacked on 24 February 2022 by Agence France Press/Getty Images