Wednesday Night #2211

Absent Friends
For those who did not see it on the First Memorial Funeral Services & Garden of Memories site, the long and eloquent obituary/tribute to Nobby Gilmore was published in The Gazette on Saturday.

A mixed bag this week between moments of euphoria -Kamala Harris’ continuing success; triumphs and human interest at the Paris Olympics; and sadness (the destruction of Jasper); utter fury (Quebec language/healthcare regulations); despair or fear; -the Venezuelan election results; Israel’s continuing belligerence (Lebanon; and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran); China’s intimidating and dangerous manoeuvres in the South China Sea; and, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Venezuela voted on Sunday and every indication was that the opposition would defeat Maduro handily.
However, as Anne Applebaum writes: by [Tuesday] morning, it was absolutely clear that the election was not merely irregular or tainted or disputed—the election had been stolen. (Venezuela’s Dictator Can’t Even Lie Well)
On Sunday, the WaPo reported that Exit polling in Venezuela shows opposition beating Maduro by wide margin –Opposition candidate Edmundo González, a stand-in for banned leader Maria Corina Machado, more than doubled President Nicolás Maduro’s support

Some of the international developments that keep us awake at night.

South China Sea/Indo-Pacific region should be of greater concern. We recently asked WN’s in-house expert, Cleo Paskal, for her views on the article below. Her answer:
I suspect there are a lot more ‘cards’ to play on both sides than just military. For example the US can start to go after (or just expose) the illegal wealth of PRC leaders in the U.S. and flood the otherwise of the Great Firewall with the information, yank visas, delist Chinese banks, start going after the corrupt gains of proxies elsewhere, etc. Of course the PRC side has a lot of cards to play as well, including potentially devastating and difficult to attribute cyber attacks on critical infrastructure. Point is, war today is not geographically contained, nor even necessarily primarily kinetic. So, a purely military assessments – akin to playing Battleship – may not give a full picture of the relative balance of power. And it all depends on political will.
Not a clear-cut, satisfying, reply, but these are complicated times.
Beijing Can Take the South China Sea Without Firing a Shot
Over the past 15 years, China has expanded its once-minimal military presence in the South China Sea into a significant one. … Concern has grown in Manila, Beijing and Washington that tensions in the South China Sea — perhaps even more than Taiwan — could trigger a conflict with China.

As War Gets Bleaker, More Ukrainians Appear Open to a Peace Deal
Most Ukrainians still oppose ceding any territory to Russia. But polls and recent remarks by the country’s leaders highlight a palpable shift in the conversation around peace talks.

Australia’s foreign minister says Russia-North Korea defense deal is ‘risky for the world’ – Australia’s foreign minister said Tuesday the recent defense deal between North Korea and Russia was “destabilizing” and “risky for the world,” after she visited the tense border village shared by North and South Korea on Tuesday.
Should we help? Any successor might be worse.
North Korean officials seek medicine for Kim Jong Un’s health problems
The 40-year-old, known for heavy drinking and smoking, comes from a family with a history of heart problems.

First Hezbollah and Lebanon
Don’t bomb Beirut: U.S. leads push to rein in Israel’s response
The focus of the high-speed diplomacy has been to constrain Israel’s response by urging it against targeting densely populated Beirut, the southern suburbs of the city that form Hezbollah’s heartland, or key infrastructure like airports and bridges
Then Hamas and Iran
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, drawing threats of retaliation against Israel
generating this response Iran’s Leader Orders Attack on Israel for Haniyeh Killing, Officials Say -Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered retaliation after a humiliating security failure, as Iran once again balances showing strength against the risk of escalation.

In Sudan’s catastrophe, food runs out as guns flow freely
The effects of the war in Sudan can be measured in superlatives: the world’s biggest internal displacement crisis, largest education crisis and biggest hunger crisis
The UAE’s Secret War in Sudan

The Paris Olympics
It all seemed like such a wonderful idea, but unfortunately came off as being typically Parisian too-clever- by-half. Thanks to the WaPo (A memorable ceremony to open the Olympics found Paris plumbing its haunted past to acknowledge the world’s ever-present dangers) for delving into and attempting to explain some of the symbolism, e.g. “Dashing through it all was the torchbearer, his identity unknown” … We were glad to learn that Arsène Lupin was represented.
Furthermore, nobody reckoned with the depressing effects of the downpour. No matter that Paris is the fashion capital of the world, there is never anything chic about a plastic poncho.
We only watched the show in snatches, so missed most of the severely criticized scenes including The Last Supper  soi disant parody -for which the organizers apologized the next day. We did find the Lady Gaga performance a bit out of place, but were brought to tears by Céline Dion’s performance. What a comeback! And the airborne Olympic cauldron housing the flame was/is spectacular.
We have enjoyed the coverage of these Games more than usual- perhaps because of the small doses of each event, thanks to constant streaming available. The dressage and equine events at Versailles are fabulous. No words adequately describe Simone Biles. 17 year-old Summer McIntosh‘s medal performances were brilliant, as was Eleanor Harvey’s surprise fencing win -the first Canadian to win an Olympic fencing medal ever and Christa Deguchi, Canada’s 1st Olympic judoka champion. We also applaud the Canadian women’s soccer team’s resilience -and grit- as they fight to redeem Canada’s reputation in the absence of three disgraced coaches. And for sure there will be more to applaud in the coming days.

Since Joe Biden has stepped away from the campaign, Kamala Harris has enjoyed enthusiastic support of Democrats across the country, raising $200 million in the first week and signing up 170,000 volunteers. Conjecture about whom she will select as a running mate (Who should Kamala Harris choose as her vice president?) only enhances the excitement, while she is applauded for the careful vetting process that precedes the announcement. A sharp contrast with the case of JD Vance whose selection already seems to have provoked serious buyer’s remorse (Republicans are already souring on JD Vance).
The Guardian reports that she will appear with her running mate at a rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday –
“Speculation abounds that Pennsylvania’s governor, Josh Shapiro, will be named as Harris’s running mate”
Thanks to Heather Cox Richardson for saying what many have been thinking. “One of the advantages of refusing the Democratic nomination for president is that his decision to do that has left President Joe Biden in the position of being above the political fray and being able to act for the good of the whole country.”

Apologies for our skepticism regarding Donald Trump’s bullet wound. On Friday, the FBI said “What struck former President Trump in the ear was a bullet, whether whole or fragmented into smaller pieces, fired from the deceased subject’s rifle.” And Trump has agreed to be interviewed by the FBI as part of an investigation into his attempted assassination – that should be fun!
Meanwhile there are more and more reports of serious security lapses. Forbes reports that Police First Noticed Trump Gunman 90 Minutes Before Shots Fired, and according to the NYT Gunman at Trump Rally Was Often a Step Ahead of the Secret Service– Text messages, obtained exclusively by The Times, indicate that some law enforcement officers were aware of Thomas Crooks earlier than previously known. And he was aware of them.

You may have been following this latest label the Democrats are applying to the Trump/Vance team
How Trump and Vance went from a ‘threat to democracy’ to ‘weird’ Trump’s latest ‘weird’ moment
Trump Questions Harris’s Racial Identity, Saying She Only ‘Became a Black Person’ Recently
In an appearance before the National Association of Black Journalists, Donald Trump also said his choice of Senator JD Vance as vice president will not matter to voters.

Varia
Such good news!
Alzheimer’s blood test shows 90% accuracy, outperforming other exams
The findings come amid larger efforts to develop a cheap, simple test that can diagnose Alzheimer’s without forcing people to undergo expensive or invasive exams.

Jacob the Ugandan lion survived poacher traps and croc-infested waters. Now he’s looking for love
Jacob’s latest feat was a swim through crocodile- and hippo-infested waters in Uganda’s Queen Elizabeth National Park, which Braczkowski believes is the longest swim by a lion on record.

Jasper The Bear
The original statue that once welcomed visitors to Jasper is at the top of the SkyTram. A Jasper replica is on Patricia Street in the townsite and still stands tall, according to photos shared on Friday by Parks Canada.  “This lovable icon continues to watch over his community,” a bear fan commented on the park’s Facebook post confirming his unscathed status.

Bloomberg’s CityLab recently posted this item on the evolution of tastes and the popularity of open-plan design among younger apartment dwellers – a matter of some debate here in older buildings where many -if not most- long-term residents are resolutely set against open kitchens – open bedrooms? Not sure!
Singapore’s Public Housing Gets Open-Plan Makeover as Design Tastes Shift
Larger living rooms and fewer bedrooms are some of the trends among younger owners of so-called HDB flats, reflecting changing demographic and economic trends.

Continuing unhappiness in Canada over the decline in the news media. See How Ottawa failed to save journalism. Over a year ago, Andrew Coyne wrote that “It would be ironic, to say the least, if a bill purporting to save the Canadian news media were instead to hasten its demise. But that seems to be where we are heading with Bill C-18, the Online News Act” (The best thing the government could do to save the media is to stop trying to save the media
Two federal byelections called for Sept. 16 – one is for David Lametti’s seat of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, expected to be a close race – we are betting on the NDP candidate well-known municipal politician, Craig Sauvé.
And in Quebec it seems the Ministry of Health bureaucrats and employees of the OQLF do not have enough to do so are concocting directives and harassing hospital staff about language issues. See New language directive for Quebec hospitals denounced as ‘dangerous’ – and the latest outrage: Anglos may now need eligibility certificates for English health care, directive says
See QCGN Special bulletin for most recent Update

Events
𝐀𝐧 𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜 𝐆𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐚𝐮.
Wednesday, October 16th
7-9 pm
𝐕𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐚 𝐇𝐚𝐥𝐥 (4626 Sherbrooke Street West)
Canada’s First Astronaut, and former Member of Parliament for Westmount, 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜 𝐆𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐚𝐮, discusses and signs his new book 𝑨 𝑴𝒐𝒔𝒕 𝑬𝒙𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒐𝒓𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒓𝒚 𝑹𝒊𝒅𝒆: 𝑺𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒆, 𝑷𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒔, 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑷𝒖𝒓𝒔𝒖𝒊𝒕 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝑪𝒂𝒏𝒂𝒅𝒊𝒂𝒏 𝑫𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒎 (title available October 8th, 2024) live and in person at 𝐕𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐚 𝐇𝐚𝐥𝐥 (4626 Sherbrooke Street West) with special host CFCF’s 𝐌𝐮𝐭𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐢 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐚𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐢.

16-17 October
Montreal International Security Summit 2024
A conference on China and the Indo-Pacific
Hosted by Montreal Institute for Genocide and Human Rights Studies

Long reads/listens
Opioid of the Masses
To many, Donald Trump feels good, but he can’t fix America’s growing social and cultural crisis, and the eventual comedown will be harsh. By J. D. Vance (July 2016)

Canada’s Olympic spying scandal: Everything you need to know
…the rapid investigation — and severe punishment — of Canada’s women’s soccer team for spying on an opponent’s closed practice session has remained a dominant, if complex, storyline.

Pulitzer Prize-winning writer Anne Applebaum discusses her new book, Autocracy Inc., and the threat a second Trump presidency could pose to those working to undermine dictators around the world.
Traditionally, the image of a foreign dictator has been one of a strongman, concerned with keeping power within their own borders and enriching their own family. But those days are over, and today’s dictators – whether they be in Russia, North Korea, Venezuela, or China – are actually working together in a global fight to dismantle liberal democracy.

A different perspective
Bret Stephens: Israel’s Five Wars
The world will soon know the full shape and scale of Israel’s response to Hezbollah for Saturday’s rocket attack on a Druze town in the Golan Heights, which killed 12 children. But it’s not too soon to ask what purpose the expected retaliation will serve in the context of Israel’s five wars.
Five wars? Yes. And they are more about ideas than they are about geography.

Technology’s grip on modern life is pushing us down a dimly lit path of digital land mines
If anything, technology appears destined to become even more pervasive now that artificial intelligence seems poised to automate more tasks, including potentially writing the code for software updates that will be checked by a computer — that will be overseen by another computer to make sure it’s not malfunctioning.

A Pedigreed Rail Magnate Is Pouring Millions Into Electing Donald Trump
In the 1970s, his charitable giving supported feminist and ecological causes and Native Americans. By 2014, he was posting comments in an online chat room comparing climate-change scientists to ISIS and worrying that terrorists could attack America using “donkeys coming over our Southern border.”

Even Richard Schiff thinks we’re living in ‘The West Wing’
The choice over the next few months, Schiff says, is really what kind of television show we want to be living in. “If we’re a combination of ‘West Wing’ and ‘Veep,’ I think we’ll survive,” he says. “If we’re a combination of ‘House of Cards’ and ‘Veep,’ then we won’t.”
As clips of “Veep” began circulating Sunday afternoon in the wake of President Biden’s exit from the 2024 race and Vice President Harris’s ascendance in his place, the group chat of another political show beloved among Washington’s goverati was on fire.
“Our ‘West Wing’ thread lit up,” says Richard Schiff. …
“Everywhere I look, there’s a ‘West Wing’ episode apparently relevant to whatever the news is that day,” he says.