Venezuela 2019 /August 2024

Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Hits 80,000% Per Year in 2018

9 September
Experts react: Maduro has forced Venezuela’s opposition leader into exile. What should the world do now?
(Atlantic Council) After falsely declaring victory in July’s presidential election, Venezuela’s autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro, has continued to tighten his grip on the country rather than engage in talks with the democratic opposition. Over the weekend, Edmundo González, who independent observers say won the election by a large margin, fled to Spain after a court issued a warrant for his arrest. “I trust that soon we will continue the struggle to achieve freedom and the recovery of democracy in Venezuela,” González said from Madrid. But how? And how can the United States and regional countries help? Our experts are on the case.
Jason Marczak: Democracies need to make life miserable for Maduro
Kevin Whitaker: Democracies should use Venezuela’s military and private sector to squeeze Maduro
Samantha Sultoon: It’s time to tighten sanctions and limit Maduro’s access to the UN
Diego Area: González now has an opportunity to lead renewed diplomatic efforts from abroad
Iria Puyosa: With Venezuela’s opposition under siege, now is the moment for coordinated international support

28 August
A month after Venezuela’s contested election, the opposition fights on
The opposition in Venezuela and its supporters have stood courageously, but risk being muffled by the Maduro regime’s suppression.
(WaPo) A month ago, Venezuela’s opposition nurtured a cautious hope. A national election seemed to present a genuine chance to oust the entrenched autocratic regime of President Nicolás Maduro. Even as Maduro and his allies stacked the odds against their opponents, disqualifying top candidates and wielding the machinery of the state to suppress their ability to campaign, pollsters and experts suggested the opposition looked certain to win more votes at the ballot box than the desperately unpopular Maduro.
But the regime’s electoral authorities declared Maduro’s victory by midnight on election day and moved in the days thereafter to consolidate control. Last week, the country’s Supreme Court, stacked with Maduro loyalists, confirmed the result.
Maduro clings to power 1 month after disputed Venezuela presidential election
(MSNBC) Nicolás Maduro continues to insist he won the Venezuelan presidential election despite evidence showing he lost in a landslide.
Venezuela opposition leader Machado vows to make Maduro ‘yield’ on election ‘fraud’
(France24) Hundreds of supporters of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado gathered in the capital Caracas on Wednesday to protest against what they describe as incumbent Nicolas Maduro’s reelection “fraud”. Machado, who has kept a low profile since Maduro called for her arrest after the July 28 presidential election, told her followers that she would not stop fighting until the opposition’s claim to victory is recognized.

22 August
Venezuela’s Supreme Court certifies Maduro’s claims that he won presidential election
(AP) — Venezuela’s Supreme Court has backed President Nicolás Maduro’s claims that he won last month’s presidential election and said voting tallies published online showing he lost by a landslide were forged.
The ruling is the latest attempt by Maduro to blunt protests and international criticism that erupted after the contested July 28 vote in which the self-proclaimed socialist leader was seeking a third, six-year term.
The high court is packed with Maduro loyalists and has almost never ruled against the government.
Its decision, read Thursday in an event attended by senior officials and foreign diplomats, came in response to a request by Maduro to review vote totals showing he had won by more than 1 million votes.
The high court’s ruling certifying the results contradicts the findings of experts from the United Nations and the Carter Center who were invited to observe the election and which both determined the results announced by authorities lacked credibility. Specifically, the outside experts noted that authorities didn’t release a breakdown of results by each of the 30,000 voting booths nationwide, as they have in almost every previous election.
The government has claimed — without evidence — that a foreign cyberattack staged by hackers from North Macedonia delayed the vote counting on election night and publication of the disaggregated results.

20 August
Amid rising insecurity in Venezuela, the US and its partners must prepare for a new wave of migration
(Atlantic Council) More than 7.7 million Venezuelans—about a quarter of the population—have left the country since 2014, 6.5 million of whom are living in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Earlier this month, opposition leader María Corina Machado said that if Maduro stays in power by force, the region will experience “a wave of migration like never before: three, four, five million Venezuelans in a very short span of time.”
Moreover, Venezuelans who have already left home are unlikely to return without political change. In a survey before the July 28 election of Venezuelans residing in the United States, 65 percent stated that they would return if an opposition candidate won the election, while less than 15 percent said they would return if Maduro remained in power, even if the economy significantly improved.

14-17 August
Venezuelans in Caracas and across the world demonstrate to defend opposition’s victory claim
(AP) — Venezuelans across the world — some with flags and other patriotic paraphernalia — responded to a call from their country’s political opposition Saturday and took to the streets to defend the faction’s claim to victory over President Nicolás Maduro in last month’s disputed presidential election.
The demonstrations in Tokyo, Sydney, Mexico City and several other cities were an effort by the main opposition coalition to make visible what they insist is the real outcome of the election. They also called on governments to throw their support behind candidate Edmundo González and express support to Venezuelans who are fearful in their home country of speaking against Maduro and his allies during a brutal repression campaign.

Biden voices support for new elections in Venezuela
The White House quickly sought to walk back Biden’s comments.
(Politico) President Joe Biden said Thursday that he supports Venezuela holding new elections, following calls from regional leaders to redo a vote both the U.S. and others have said appeared to have been rigged in favor of the sitting president.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro called on Caracas today to hold new elections that are fair and consistent with international standards. Both countries are regional interlocutors the administration has seen as critical in the effort to get Maduro to accept results that show he did not win the election.
Will Maduro negotiate a transfer of power? And four other questions about Venezuela’s political crisis.
We must start from the premise that Maduro’s government made a political decision in ignoring the results of the presidential election. This implies a radical break with popular sovereignty, which Chavismo proclaimed as the foundation of its legitimacy.
… Latin American countries have a crucial responsibility at this moment. It is necessary to support efforts to promote credible negotiations that will lead to a peaceful and democratic solution in Venezuela. However, it is imperative that any negotiations incorporate the desire of both the Venezuelan people and all of Latin America to respect the rule of law and democratic order in Venezuela. Only through a firm commitment to these principles can we move toward a solution that reflects the will of the Venezuelan people.
—Miguel Vargas, former foreign minister of the Dominican Republic and a senior advisor to the Venezuela Solutions Group.
Faced with this reality, it is imperative that Latin American countries continue to demand electoral transparency and condemn repression and the violation of human rights. It is essential to increase diplomatic coordination and demand transparency, independent auditing, and respect for the popular vote. Only with a firm and coordinated position in the region will we be able to engender a way out of the deep crisis in Venezuela, which must occur through a credible and realistic negotiation process with the accompaniment of guarantor countries.
—María Ángela Holguín, former foreign minister of Colombia and a senior advisor to the Atlantic Council’s Venezuela Solutions Group. …

The U.S. faces democratic and geopolitical defeat in Venezuela
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s violent crackdown after an election loss carries echoes of 1989.
(WaPo) One can quibble endlessly about the U.S. policy errors, strategic and tactical, that have brought us to this point, whether those of President Donald Trump, who tried a confrontational approach heavy on economic sanctions, or of President Joe Biden, who tried to coax Maduro into holding free and fair elections by relaxing sanctions.
However, U.S. policy mistakes do not explain the regime’s survival. The key factor has been that regime’s own relentlessness.
“There are only four ways in which a ruling group can fall from power. Either it is conquered from without, or it governs so inefficiently that the masses are stirred to revolt, or it allows a strong and discontented Middle group to come into being, or it loses its own self-confidence and willingness to govern,” George Orwell wrote in “1984,” adding that the fourth factor — “the mental attitude of the ruling class” — is the most important.

12 August
ICC prosecutors are monitoring Venezuela, where security forces are cracking down on dissent
(AP) — International Criminal Court prosecutors said Monday that they are “actively monitoring” events in Venezuela, where security forces have launched a crackdown on the opposition in the aftermath of the nation’s disputed presidential election.
Forces loyal to President Nicolás Maduro have rounded up more than 2,000 people for demonstrating against the president or casting doubt on his claims that he won a third term in the July 28 election despite strong evidence he lost the vote by a more than two-to-one margin.

7 August
A Deal That Could Save Venezuela
Proffessor Francisco Rodríguez, Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.
There is time before the start of the next presidential term on Jan. 10 to negotiate and put before voters, in a referendum, a project of constitutional reform that would enshrine the guarantees needed to make a national accord work.
(NYT) … As the international community contemplates how to react to Mr. Maduro’s apparent election theft, a sense of understandable fatigue has set in for observers hoping for an end to his long, corrosive and antidemocratic rule. After all, it seems either the international community or the country’s opposition have tried just about everything. Targeted sanctions aimed at regime officials? Done that. Oil sanctions to starve the government of resources? Tried that, too. Easing sanctions as an incentive to hold free elections? That didn’t work, either. Put a $15 million reward on his head? Try to spur a military uprising? Check, check. None of it worked.
… A starting point for thinking about what a national unity government in Venezuela could look like was actually produced by the U.S. government in March 2020. Called the Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela, the plan contemplated the creation of a Council of State, a body that would have representation from various parties and serve as the executive branch while new elections were organized.

28 July – 6 August
Evidence shows Venezuela’s election was stolen – but will Maduro budge?
Tiago Rogero, South America correspondent
Analyses indicate Nicolás Maduro lost the presidential election, but country’s leader shows no signs of stepping aside
US recognizes opposition candidate González as the winner of Venezuela’s presidential election
(AP) — The stakes grew higher for Venezuela’s electoral authority to show proof backing its decision to declare President Nicolás Maduro the winner of the country’s presidential election after the United States on Thursday recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as the victor, discrediting the official results of the vote.
The U.S. announcement followed calls from multiple governments, including close allies of Maduro, for Venezuela’s National Electoral Council to release detailed vote counts, as it has done during previous elections.
The electoral body declared Maduro the winner Monday, but the main opposition coalition revealed hours later that it had evidence to the contrary in the form of more than two-thirds of the tally sheets that each electronic voting machine printed after polls closed.
Venezuela’s opposition secured over 80% of crucial vote tally sheets. Here’s how they did it
U.S. says Maduro lost Venezuelan election, calls for talks, transition
(WaPo) Maduro claims that he won the vote Sunday, despite exit polling and, the opposition says, the government’s own records, which indicate that Edmundo González won twice as many as votes.
Anne Applebaum writes: by [Tuesday] morning, it was absolutely clear that the election was not merely irregular or tainted or disputed—the election had been stolen. (Venezuela’s Dictator Can’t Even Lie Well)
(The Atlantic) How do they know that Maduro had truly lost the vote? Because organizers of Venezuela’s democratic opposition—thousands of people inside and outside of the country—painstakingly prepared for this election, assumed it could be stolen, kept track of multiple legal violations and violent attacks from the regime, and stayed united anyway. More than 2 million people from different opposition parties participated in a joint presidential primary and selected a candidate, María Corina Machado, a politician who has been active for more than two decades and is well known for her belief that the regime requires fundamental change. When Maduro arbitrarily barred her from running, the coalition switched to Edmundo González, a little-known former ambassador—and united behind him too.
Throughout the campaign, González supporters and other political leaders were assaulted, arrested, and detained by the National Guard as well as by armed civilian groups. Government thugs wrote threatening graffiti on campaign offices as well as university buildings, radio stations, union halls, and the homes of some activists. Official media overwhelmingly supported Maduro and smeared his opponents. Once the richest country in South America, Venezuela is now, after more than two decades of misrule, one of the poorest, and the regime uses food rationing to influence political behavior.
29 July
Maduro Regime Accuses Rival of Sabotage, Triggering Protests
Venezuela stops short of announcing arrest warrant for Machado
Access to international airport blocked as criticism floods in
Experts react: Maduro is clinging to power after a disputed election. What’s next for Venezuela?
(Atlantic Council) Voting doesn’t make a democracy—legitimate and transparent counting of the votes does. On Sunday, Venezuelans went to the polls to select their next president. Early on Monday, the Nicolás Maduro-controlled election committee declared Maduro, who took over the presidency from Hugo Chávez in 2013, the winner of another six-year term. The announcement came in the face of widespread accounts of voter intimidation and other irregularities meant to deny victory to opposition candidate Edmundo González, who led in pre-election polling. “The Venezuelans and the entire world know what happened,” González said of the electoral committee’s dodgy results.
Entrenched incumbent Maduro is declared winner of Venezuela’s disputed presidential election
The National Electoral Council, which is loyal to Maduro’s ruling party, announced his victory, handing him a third six-year term as the leader of an economy recovering from collapse and a population desperate for change.
Leaders across Americas react to Venezuela election results
(Reuters) – Leaders across the Americas reacted to Venezuela’s electoral authority’s announcement just after midnight on Monday that President Nicolas Maduro has won a third term in office, despite multiple exit polls which pointed to an opposition win.
Venezuela’s Autocrat Is Declared Winner of High-Stakes Election
The result, which would give Nicolás Maduro six more years as president, is likely to be disputed by the opposition. The voting was riddled with irregularities.
(NYT) Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, was declared the winner of the country’s tumultuous presidential election early Monday, despite enormous momentum from an opposition movement that had been convinced this was the year it would oust Mr. Maduro’s socialist-inspired party.
The vote was riddled with irregularities, and citizens were angrily protesting the government’s actions at voting centers even as the results were announced.
With 80 percent of voting stations counted, the election authority claimed that Mr. Maduro had received 51.2 percent of the vote, while his closest competitor, Edmundo González, had received 44.2 percent.
The result is very likely to be disputed by the opposition. And frustration over the outcome could plunge the oil-rich, crisis-laden nation into a period of deep uncertainty, with concern that street demonstrations could follow.

Exit polling in Venezuela shows opposition beating Maduro by wide margin
Opposition candidate Edmundo González, a stand-in for banned leader Maria Corina Machado, more than doubled President Nicolás Maduro’s support
(WaPo) The Venezuelan opposition was hopeful of an election victory Sunday that could bring an end to the authoritarian government of Nicolás Maduro and the socialist state that has controlled this crisis-stricken South American nation for a quarter-century.
Venezuelans vote in highly charged election amid fraud worries
(Reuters) – Venezuelans waited in line at polling stations and cast ballots on Sunday in the most consequential election in a quarter-century of socialist party rule, with President Nicolas Maduro confident of victory even as the opposition has attracted impassioned support and warned of possible irregularities.
Great is the issue at stake in Venezuela
(The Week in Corruption) This election can be a turning point. Under Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chávez, democracy has collapsed, leading nearly eight million Venezuelans to flee. The country also struggles with inflation, widespread poverty and food shortages. For years, corruption has been a persistent issue, with watchdog organisations and media denouncing that government funds are mismanaged, stolen or spent on companies linked to those in power. In the Corruption Perceptions Index 2023, Venezuela scored just 13 out of 100 points, one of the lowest in the world, highlighting widespread impunity and a complete lack of independence of the judiciary.
Maduro has a history of questionable elections. His first win in 2013 was marred by claims of thousands of voting irregularities, from armed thugs in polling stations to mismatches on tally sheets. The 2018 election was widely questioned by the international community. This year, Transparencia Venezuela along with other civil society organisations, gathered information from citizens’ reports and documented attacks on politicians, candidates and political leaders during the pre-campaign and campaign periods. The attacks include detentions, forced disappearances, assaults and interventions in political parties, abuse of state resources for electoral gain, disinformation campaigns and threats of violence if the opposition

24-27 July
As Venezuela’s election nears, opposition figures face Maduro’s repression
Critics of Maduro’s government say they face roadblocks, arbitrary arrest and more as they campaign for the opposition.
(Al Jazeera) On Sunday, Venezuelans head to the polls to vote for the presidency. But Maduro, the socialist president who has been in power since 2013, has struggled in the polls, trailing Gonzalez by wide margins.
Why Venezuela’s presidential election should matter to the rest of the world
(AP) — Here are some reasons why the election matters to the world:
Migration impact
The election will impact migration flows regardless of the winner.
The instability in Venezuela for the past decade has pushed more than 7.7 million people to migrate, which the U.N.’s refugee agency describes as the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history.  …
Mismanaged oil industry
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude reserves, but its production declined over several years, in part because of government mismanagement and widespread corruption in the state-owned oil company.
In April, Venezuela’s government announced the arrest of Tareck El Aissami, the once-powerful oil minister and a Maduro ally, over an alleged scheme through which hundreds of millions of dollars in oil proceeds seemingly disappeared. … U.S. government reimposed sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector, after Maduro and his allies used the ruling party’s total control over Venezuela’s institutions to undermine an agreement to allow free elections. Among those actions, they blocked Machado from registering as a presidential candidate and arrested and persecuted members of her team. The sanctions make it illegal for U.S. companies to do business with state-run Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., better known as PDVSA, without prior authorization from the U.S. Treasury Department. The outcome of the election could decide whether those sanctions remain in place.
An uneven playing field
A U.N.-backed panel investigating human rights violations in Venezuela has reported that the government has increased repression of critics and opponents ahead of the election, subjecting targets to detention, surveillance, threats, defamatory campaigns and arbitrary criminal proceedings.
The government has also used its control of media outlets, the country’s fuel supply, electric network and other infrastructure to limit the reach of the Machado-González campaign.
The mounting actions taken against the opposition prompted the Biden administration earlier this year to end the sanctions relief it granted in October.
Venezuela Is Ready for Change. Maduro Must Allow It.
By María Corina Machado, leader of the country’s political opposition.
(NYT) Venezuelans are putting everything on the line in Sunday’s election. Faced with President Nicolás Maduro’s intention to entrench himself in power for six more years, the democratic movement has steadily built a pathway for profound change around Edmundo González, our presidential candidate.
Venezuela: Alarm over violence and electoral violations ahead of Sunday’s vote
Transparency International is deeply concerned about the presidential elections in Venezuela this Sunday, 28 July, following President Maduro’s recent statements suggesting a “bloodbath” or “civil war” if the opposition wins.
Transparency International Venezuela, citizens and civil society organisations report a troubling pre-campaign and campaign period marred by violence and threats of violence against the opposition, abuse of state resources for electoral gain and disinformation campaigns.
Identified perpetrators include the National Guard, state defence and security forces, SENIAT (tax authority), and armed civilian groups. The government has reportedly used these groups to incite violent actions against anyone perceived as seeking to “destabilise” Venezuela.

Venezuela opposition leader provides hope for many, even though she isn’t on the presidential ballot
(AP) —  The ruling party has blocked Maria Corina Machado from running in Sunday’s hotly contested presidential election, but fueled by that ban, she has become the driving force for the main opposition coalition and a symbol of hope, courage and perseverance for millions of Venezuelans. Machado, once a political outcast, is their freedom fighter and the main threat to President Nicolás Maduro’s reelection aspirations.
Venezuela’s political surprise
Despite the Maduro regime’s best efforts to quash dissent, the people are demanding change.
By Enrique Krauze, Mexican historian, author of “Mexico: Biography of Power” and “Redeemers: Ideas and Power in Latin America.”
(WaPo Opinion) When Venezuelan populists talk about stopping migration from their country by addressing root causes, they are referring to widespread poverty. And they often blame the United States and its policies for this.
What these populists do not say is that the actual root cause of poverty has been a lack of democracy and freedom. The Biden administration has the opportunity to correct the populists’ narrative this week — because something extraordinary is happening in Venezuela.
María Corina Machado, a courageous leader with a long history in the opposition, has managed to organize a real movement which, in the upcoming elections, stands to beat the regime that has been in power for a quarter of a century.

10 July
For Venezuela, a ray of light. Give the opposition a free and fair election.
The country’s July 28 vote threatens Nicolás Maduro’s hold on power as the opposition resurges.
(WaPo) After 25 years of politically authoritarian and economically ruinous rule under Hugo Chávez and his successor, Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela is heading toward a critical July 28 national election. Against all odds, a resurgent opposition could threaten the regime’s hold on power. But it is possible that Mr. Maduro will cling to office through fraud or force.

2023

22 December
Venezuela: The Rise and Fall of a Petrostate
Venezuela’s ongoing descent into economic and political chaos is a cautionary tale of the dangerous influence that resource wealth can have on developing countries.
(Council on Foreign Relations) Venezuela is an example of a petrostate, where the government is highly dependent on fossil fuel income, power is concentrated, and corruption is widespread.
Petrostates are vulnerable to what economists call Dutch disease, in which a government develops an unhealthy dependence on natural resource exports to the detriment of other sectors.
Venezuela continues to grapple with economic and political hardship under President Nicolás Maduro, but U.S. sanctions relief in exchange for democratic reforms have sparked hope for a revival of the oil industry. …
In recent years, Venezuela has suffered economic collapse, with output shrinking significantly and rampant hyperinflation contributing to a scarcity of basic goods, such as food and medicine. Meanwhile, government mismanagement and U.S. sanctions have led to a drastic decline in oil production and severe underinvestment in the sector. But Caracas hopes that Washington’s decision to ease an array of sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sector, including allowing U.S. oil giant Chevron to resume operations in the country, could signal a potential détente.

2021

12 July
Venezuela announces terrorism charges against Guaido ally after highway arrest
(Reuters) – Venezuelan prosecutors on Monday said they had charged opposition politician Freddy Guevara with terrorism and treason, among other allegations, after the country’s intelligence service arrested him from his car on a Caracas highway.
Guevara is a close ally of opposition leader Juan Guaido, who is recognized as the South American country’s legitimate president by the United States and others. Guaido said unidentified armed men threatened him with arrest earlier on Monday as he left his apartment in an effort to assist Guevara.
… The incidents took place as the government and opposition prepare for negotiations planned for next month in Mexico with mediation by Norway aimed at resolving the South American country’s deep political crisis, people familiar with the matter told Reuters last week.
8 July
Talks between Venezuelan gov’t, opposition set for August -sources
(Reuters) President Joe Biden’s administration, which says it is reviewing the sanctions policies it inherited, has not relaxed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and financial sectors and has maintained support for Guaido, recognized as the South American country’s rightful leader by Washington and dozens of other Western democracies.

2020

6 May
Detained American claims he plotted Maduro’s capture in Venezuela TV statement
(Reuters) – A former U.S. soldier captured in Venezuela said on Wednesday that he had been contracted by a Florida security firm to seize control of Caracas’ airport and bring in a plane to fly President Nicolas Maduro to the United States.
Venezuelan authorities on Monday arrested the man, Luke Denman, along with fellow U.S. citizen Airan Berry and 11 others, in what Maduro has called a failed plot coordinated with Washington to oust him.

7 January
Maduro opponents storm parliament to reinstall Guaidó as leader
Juan Guaidó sworn in for second term as caretaker leader
Maduro attempted to seize control of parliament on Sunday
(The Guardian) The new decade has started with a bang in Venezuela, with Guaidó’s stuttering year-long campaign to topple Maduro suddenly reinvigorated by this week’s events.
Even the leftwing governments of Argentina and Mexico were critical of Maduro’s attempt to take over Venezuela’s parliament on Sunday, with Argentina’s new foreign minister warning such actions would condemn Hugo Chávez’s heir to “international isolation”.
Bloomberg points out in Showdown looms that a senior U.S. official warned the Trump administration had underestimated Russian and Cuban support for President Nicolas Maduro, who Guaido is trying to oust.

5 January
Maduro accused of parliamentary ‘coup’ after replacing Guaidó as president of assembly
Troops blocked presidential rival from entering the parliament building in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas
Guaidó shot to international prominence last January after he was elected president of Venezuela’s national assembly and used that position to declare himself the country’s legitimate interim leader.
On Sunday Guaidó had hoped to extend his leadership of the anti-Maduro movement by being re-elected as the assembly’s president for another year.
But there were scenes of chaos and confusion as security forces and riot troops blocked opposition lawmakers and journalists from entering the parliament building in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas.
The move appeared designed to further weaken Guaidó, who recently vowed 2020 would be Venezuela’s “year of freedom” despite the growing impression that his campaign against Maduro is faltering.
More than 50 governments including the United States, the United Kingdom and Brazil recognized Guaidó as Venezuela’s president, based on his leadership of the assembly and suspicions Maduro had stolen the 2018 presidential election.
Despite that backing, mass street protests, and at least two attempts to spark military uprisings against Maduro, Guaidó has failed to topple Hugo Chávez’s authoritarian heir, who still enjoys support from China and Russia.

2019

6 June
Kremlin Rejects US Suggestions That Russian Military Personnel Are Pulling out of Venezuela
By Pavel Felgenhauer
(Eurasia Daily Monitor) … On May 3, 2019, Trump and Putin had a long phone conversation that both leaders later described as good and encouraging. In an apparent follow-on effort, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo met a couple of times with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov; and on May 14, he flew to Sochi for talks with Putin directly—to press for a US-Russian “deal” or compromise that could defuse the crisis in Venezuela
… In Washington, Venezuela is apparently seen as the most promising and urgent issue on the bilateral agenda with Russia: The corrupt and bankrupt regime of leftist President Nicolás Maduro—considered illegitimate by the US and most Latin American governments—looks doomed to collapse under the weight of economic and financial ruin, political and social chaos and mass protests. The US thinking goes that, given the right incentives, the Kremlin could abandon Maduro, recall its military specialists and personnel, and put pressure on Cuba to likewise withdraw. In the beginning of June, this scenario looked to be coming true.
… On June 6, Putin entered the fray, telling journalists, “We do not have any big military bases in Venezuela and no troops there.” Russia has been selling Venezuela arms and is now honoring previous contracts by sending in specialists who service the weapons. “Some of our specialists may have ended their task and left while others may have arrived in turn,” continued Putin, implying Caracas “pays in full” (Interfax, June 6). Putin ridiculed the countries that recognized the speaker of the Venezuelan National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, as interim president: “They must be mad. Maybe they want to proclaim presidents in France and the US on street corners?” (Interfax, June 6).

17 May
Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say
Butchers have stopped selling meat cuts in favor of offal, fat shavings and cow hooves, the only animal protein many of their customers can afford.
(NYT) Zimbabwe’s collapse under Robert Mugabe. The fall of the Soviet Union. Cuba’s disastrous unraveling in the 1990s.
The crumbling of Venezuela’s economy has now outpaced them all.
Venezuela’s fall is the single largest economic collapse outside of war in at least 45 years, economists say.
“It’s really hard to think of a human tragedy of this scale outside civil war,” said Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. “This will be a touchstone of disastrous policies for decades to come.”

16 May
Russia and Cuba Could End the Venezuelan Catastrophe. Seriously.
The Trump administration should include Havana and Moscow in its efforts to remove Maduro from power.
By Professor Jorge G. Castañeda
(NYT opinion) Russia has become a major player in the drama. Venezuela was on the agenda when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo first spoke with his Russian counterpart in Moscow in March, when they met in Helsinki earlier this month, and again this week in Sochi. President Trump discussed the Venezuelan situation with President Vladimir Putin of Russia on May 3. Nothing seems to have come from these exchanges. But it’s clear that there are stark differences between the two governments, and a growing awareness on Russia’s part of how much Washington cares about the matter.
Washington has a strong hand to play, but it must do so wisely. If in fact Mr. Trump wants to do away with both governments in Cuba and Venezuela, or if he is really after regime change only in Cuba, this will lead to failure and invariably anger the country’s democratic partners in Latin America and Europe. With the exceptions of Nicaragua, Bolivia, Uruguay and Mexico, the region wants Mr. Maduro out. But it will not support Mr. Trump in any effort to dislodge the Cuban dictatorship.
…  Mr. Trump should continue to press Cuba to join its efforts to remove Mr. Maduro. The country can play a crucial role by affording him a safe haven and by participating in the transitional arrangements that would ensure a democratic transition: freeing all political prisoners and allowing all opposition leaders to run for office in free, fair and internationally supervised elections, re-establishing freedom of the press and association, gradually and peacefully reducing its footprint in Venezuela. Mr. Trump should engage Russia to persuade the Cubans to do so. And he should remember that after all, there is no carrot and stick approach without a carrot.

9 May
Venezuelan lawmakers seek refuge in embassies after crackdown on Guaido allies
(Reuters) – Two Venezuelan lawmakers sought refuge at foreign embassies in Caracas on Thursday, as the government of President Nicolas Maduro cracked down on allies of opposition leader Juan Guaido who supported his attempted uprising last week. The ex-head of the state intelligence service, Manuel Cristopher, the top Maduro government official to defect during the uprising, also spoke out for the first time on Thursday, urging Venezuelans to “build a new state” and combat corruption.The moves came the day after authorities arrested Edgar Zambrano, the opposition-run National Assembly’s vice president.

7 May
Venezuela’s opposition debates new tactics as diplomats race to defuse crisis
(WaPo) After the failure of last week’s plot to oust President Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s opposition and its foreign backers are debating a new approach: extending an offer to senior government and military officials to join a post-Maduro transitional government — while also heightening the threat of U.S.-led intervention.
As the political crisis here deepened Tuesday, diplomatic activity was rapidly accelerating, particularly among nations concerned over the growing U.S. drumbeat on military options.
The European Union called on the Vatican and the United Nations to join talks to defuse tensions. Canada and other nations were seeking to enlist Cuba — one of Maduro’s closest allies — in finding a peaceful solution.
The United States, in an attempt to lure more defectors, lifted sanctions Tuesday on Maduro’s spy chief, who last week broke with the socialist leader and fled the country.

5 May
Putin Is Ready to Give Up Venezuela for the Right Price
Sergei Lavrov and Mike Pompeo will soon meet in Helsinki to discuss Venezuela’s future.
By Vladimir Frolov
(Moscow Times) Last week, Russia and Cuba may have thwarted a U.S. backed plot to engineer a peaceful transfer of power from Nicolas Maduro to a transitional government led by interim president Juan Guaido and Venezuela’s top officials, including Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino and Supreme Court Chief Justice Maikel Moreno.
On May 3, U.S. President Donald Trump called Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to flag American concerns over Russia’s “disruptive role” in Venezuela and stress his country’s determination to ensure Venezuela’s return to democratic rule.
The Kremlin was struck by [NSC Senior Director for Europe, Russia and Eurasia Fiona]  Hill’s prioritization of Venezuela as the most important issue in the relationship due to its direct impact on U.S. politics and the 2020 presidential race in Florida. Moscow concluded then it found an issue it could use to force the U.S. to grant concession elsewhere, most notably in Ukraine.

4 May
Guaidó says opposition overestimated military support for uprising
After a dramatic week that saw a clandestine plan to oust President Nicolás Maduro fall apart on Tuesday, Guaidó conceded that the opposition had miscalculated its support within the military.
In an exclusive interview with The Washington Post, Guaidó suggested that he expected Maduro to step down amid a groundswell of defectors within the military. Instead, Guaidó’s call for the rank and file and senior brass to abandon Maduro did not produce mass defections. Maduro’s security forces then quelled street protests and left Guaidó’s U.S.-backed opposition on its heels.
…the unraveling of a carefully laid plan to oust Maduro, including negotiations with his senior loyalists, has generated rifts within the opposition. Some of its senior leaders have issued recriminations over what went wrong. The sniping risks robbing the opposition of what became its single strongest asset in recent months: unity.

1 May
“Venezuelan authorities say they are putting down a small coup attempt after opposition leader Juan Guaidó announced he was in the “final phase” of ending President Nicolás Maduro’s rule. He appeared in a video with uniformed men, saying he had military support. Mr Guaidó, who declared himself interim president in January, called for more members of the military to help him end Mr Maduro’s “usurpation” of power. But military leaders appeared to be standing behind Mr Maduro. Venezuela’s defence minister appeared on television to stress the point. However, photos from Caracas show some soldiers aligning themselves with Mr Guaidó’s supporters.Mr Maduro’s detractors hope the military will change its allegiance as resentment grows following years of hyperinflation, power cuts, food and medicine shortages. So far, they have stood by Mr Maduro – despite dozens of countries, including the UK, the US and most of Latin America, recognising Mr Guaidó as Venezuela’s rightful leader.” (BBC https://bre.is/55HSAEeJ4)

30 April
The Atlantic: Venezuela’s crisis continues, and the opposition leader now calls for an uprising. Juan Guaidó appeared alongside soldiers today to demand the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro—leading to a spate of violent clashes. Economic strife has ravaged the country in recent years, and three months ago, Guaidó, with backing from the United States, declared himself the interim president. In the battle for the future of Venezuela, one of the Trump administration’s approaches has been to pressure Cuba to pressure Venezuela. But for that geopolitical calculus to work, so much more needs to fall in line.
Blackwater founder’s latest sales pitch: mercenaries for Venezuela
(Reuters) – Erik Prince – the founder of the controversial private security firm Blackwater and a prominent supporter of U.S. President Donald Trump – has been pushing a plan to deploy a private army to help topple Venezuela’s socialist president, Nicolas Maduro, four sources with knowledge of the effort told Reuters.
Some U.S. and Venezuelan security experts, told of the plan by Reuters, called it politically far-fetched and potentially dangerous because it could set off a civil war. A Venezuelan exile close to the opposition agreed but said private contractors might prove useful, in the event Maduro’s government collapses, by providing security for a new administration in the aftermath.

23 April
‘Operation Blackout is underway’: Russia blames US for Venezuela power crisis
Deputy defence minister says US using a ‘broad range of techniques’ in bid to oust president Nicolás Maduro
(The Guardian) Russia has accused the United States of deliberately causing a succession of crippling power cuts in Venezuela as part of a plot to topple its president, Nicolás Maduro, dubbed “Operation Blackout”.
The crisis-stricken South American country has been rocked by a series of nationwide power outrages since 7 March, which Maduro’s government has blamed on US-backed saboteurs and snipers but most experts attribute to poor maintenance and a bush fire that destroyed a key section of Venezuela’s power grid.
In an interview with the Moscow-funded broadcaster RT, however, Russia’s deputy defence minister, Alexander Fomin, backed Maduro’s version of events.

12 April
Red Cross aid to Venezuela to triple as Maduro stance softens
International Committee of the Red Cross to increase budget to $24m after president approves humanitarian assistance

29 March
Red Cross Granted Access to Deliver Aid in Venezuela
(NYT) The Red Cross said Friday it had received permission from Venezuela’s government and opposition to roll out one of the organization’s biggest global relief campaigns, signaling a possible easing in the dire humanitarian emergency gripping the country.
The announcement amounted to the first tacit acknowledgment by the government of Nicolás Maduro that Venezuelans are suffering from lack of food and other basics.
In scale and ambition, the relief effort could become an “operation very similar to what is happening in Syria,” said Francesco Rocca, the president of the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, to reporters in Caracas on Friday. “It obviously will not and cannot solve the country’s problems, but it’s a necessary step to save lives.”

24 March
Russian air force planes land in Venezuela carrying troops: reports
(Reuters) – Two Russian air force planes landed at Venezuela’s main airport on Saturday carrying a Russian defense official and nearly 100 troops, according to media reports, amid strengthening ties between Caracas and Moscow.

14 March
The Economist: At least 40 people have died in Venezuela as a result of the country’s longest-ever power cut, which affected all 23 states. Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s dictator, has claimed that the “demonic” government of the United States is responsible for the failure of the grid as part of its efforts to topple him. But incompetence and corruption, exacerbated by the fact that half the skilled employees of the state-run electricity monopoly have emigrated, are probably to blame

10 March
Nerves fray, tempers flare as Venezuela blackout hits fourth day
(Reuters) – Furious Venezuelans lined up to buy water and fuel on Sunday as the country endured a fourth day of a nationwide blackout that has left already-scarce food rotting in shops, homes suffering for lack of water and cell phones without reception.
Authorities have managed to provide only patchy access to power since the outage began on Thursday in what President Nicolas Maduro called an act of U.S.-backed sabotage, but critics insist it is the result of incompetence and corruption.
Lines at fuel stations extended for blocks as drivers queued for gasoline and busses waited to fill up with diesel. Families stood under the sun to buy potable water, which is unavailable for most residents whose homes do not have power.

6 March
Venezuela orders German ambassador to leave
Nicolás Maduro’s administration accuses Daniel Kriener of ‘crass’ and ‘unlawful’ meddling in Venezuelan affairs
(The Guardian) Friction between Maduro and European diplomats has been growing since 10 January when Caracas-based ambassadors, including Kriener and his British counterpart, Andrew Soper, boycotted the inauguration ceremony for Maduro’s disputed second term.
Tensions intensified last month when European countries including the UK, Spain, France, Germany, Sweden and Denmark officially recognised Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president after Maduro ignored calls for fresh presidential elections.
Addressing a sitting of Venezuela’s opposition-controlled national assembly on Wednesday, the opposition lawmaker Omar Barboza said the decision reflected “the deepening of the totalitarian behaviour” of Maduro’s government and deserved condemnation.
The United States – Guaidó’s most important backer – stepped up its pressure on Maduro on Wednesday as Donald Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, warned foreign banks and financial institutions not to do business with the Venezuelan strongman.

28 February
Russia, China veto US push for UN action on Venezuela
(euronews) Russia and China on Thursday vetoed a US push for the United Nations Security Council to call for free and fair presidential elections in Venezuela and unhindered aid access.
The US draft resolution garnered the minimum nine votes, forcing Russia and China to cast vetoes. South Africa also voted against the text, while Indonesia, Equatorial Guinea and Ivory Coast abstained.
Russia and the United States have been at loggerheads over a US-led campaign for international recognition of Juan Guaido, the Venezuelan opposition leader and head of the country’s elected National Assembly, over President Nicholas Maduro.
“We are seriously concerned about the fact that today’s meeting may be exploited as a step for preparations of a real, not humanitarian, intervention … as a result of the alleged inability of the Security Council to resolve the situation in Venezuela,” Russian UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said.

25 February
For the few, not the many: Meet the real beneficiaries of Venezuelan socialism
(CapX) The magnitude of this plunder explains why despite the very stark consequences for the Venezuelan population, subdued by a humanitarian crisis, there are still some lasting regime supporters. The Venezuelan military have benefited greatly from this corruption as well as from drug trafficking and illegal gold mining in the Amazonian basin.
Venezuelan oil money was also used to buy political loyalties across the region and finance the revolution’s propaganda abroad. So next time you read some Maduro disinformation, consider that it is financed with oil-money that could — and should — have been used to buy food and medicines for those Venezuelans who now suffer the double standards of the self-called revolutionary government.

After Venezuelan troops block aid, Maduro faces ‘diplomatic siege’
(Reuters) – Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro faced growing regional pressure on Sunday after his troops repelled foreign aid convoys, with the United States threatening new sanctions and Brazil urging allies to join a “liberation effort”. Juan Guaido, recognized by most Western nations as Venezuela’s legitimate leader, urged foreign powers to consider “all options” in ousting Maduro, ahead of a meeting of the regional Lima Group of nations in Bogota on Monday that will be attended by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence.

23 February
Some Aid From Brazil Pierces Venezuela’s Blockade, but Violence Erupts Along the Colombian Border
(NYT) An ambitious plan by Venezuela’s opposition to peacefully import foreign aid in truck convoys degenerated into deadly skirmishes Saturday along the impoverished country’s borders, with a smattering of supplies getting through but most of it blocked by armed loyalists of President Nicolás Maduro.
As the day progressed, some of the humanitarian aid pierced Mr. Maduro’s blockade, but most of it did not. And although a few members of the security forces defected, Mr. Guaidó’s hope that the armed forces would step aside and even join his flag-waving supporters did not come to pass.

Sanctions, Rock Concerts and Still Maduro May Not Go So Soon
(Bloomberg) Nicolas Maduro’s opponents are stepping up pressure on multiple fronts to unseat him as Venezuela’s president, but behind the scenes even staunch critics have their doubts. Josh Wingrove and Raymond Colitt write about the growing sense that Maduro is holding on to power longer than expected and measures to oust him could even backfire.

Trump and Venezuela
The implausible liberator
(The Economist) Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s dictator, has promised to block American-supplied shipments of food and medicines that volunteers working with Juan Guaidó, Venezuela’s interim president, are expected to try to bring into the country tomorrow. The longer Mr Maduro survives, the more pressure President Donald Trump will face to intervene militarily. He should resist: an American invasion would deprive a new government of legitimacy and revive anti-imperialism across Latin America

21 Feb
Maduro and Venezuela’s Opposition Prepare for Dramatic Confrontation
(New York) Venezuela’s opposition lawmakers, lead by National Assembly leader and self-proclaimed acting president Juan Guaidó, boarded buses Thursday on their way to confront a blockade that’s keeping humanitarian aid away from the desperate citizens of the South American nation.
They left from Caracas early Thursday en route to the border with Colombia, where aid from the U.S. and other countries has piled up for weeks. They have two goals in mind ahead of a Saturday deadline to receive the aid: They want to let in food and medicine to help the millions of Venezuelans affected by the humanitarian crisis gripping the country. But they also want to deal a blow to President Nicolás Maduro, who has rejected the aid because he says Venezuelans are not “beggars.”
The aid is currently being held back by the Venezuelan military, which remains loyal to Maduro. But Guaidó, who has been recognized as the country’s rightful president by more than 50 nations, has warned the military that aid will enter the country “one way or another.”
He is reportedly betting that the troops amassed at the border will not resort to violence to stop a large group of civilians from bringing food and medicine into the country. And if the military allows the aid in, the opposition believes “they will essentially have recognized Guaidó as Venezuela’s commander in chief,” the AP reports. They also believe that aid moving into the country, against Maduro’s wishes, will weaken his hold on power.

(The Atlantic) Humanitarian efforts aren’t generally controversial, but that hasn’t been the case with American aid to Venezuela. The Latin American country has been consumed by a cascading economic and hunger crisis, leading millions of Venezuelans to flee to neighboring Colombia. The U.S. government has responded by sending supplies such as groceries, vitamin supplements, and hygiene products to the country, but the aid has another, thinly veiled purpose —helping lead to the ouster of the country’s president, Nicolás Maduro. That ulterior motive has some aid workers fretting that the politicization of humanitarian initiatives could have disastrous effects.

18 February
Trump just issued an ultimatum to the Venezuelan military: abandon Maduro or else
Either Venezuela’s military leaders join Juan Guaidó or risk losing everything
(Vox) Since January, the Trump administration, joined by governments in the Americas and Europe, has called for Venezuela’s socialist president to step down, partly because the country has suffered an immense economic and humanitarian collapse during his rule. The US and others now support Guaidó, the leader of the country’s opposition-controlled legislative body, who claims he is the country’s rightful president. But Guaidó can’t govern the nation until the military supports him, and so far, the leaders of Venezuela’s military stand behind Maduro. Their resolve, however, is facing its biggest test yet.
Three US military planes arrived in neighboring Colombia on Saturday to deliver aid to Venezuelans desperately in need of humanitarian relief due to the country’s high inflation and hunger rates. Maduro has ordered the military to block the aid, saying that the assistance is tantamount to foreign intervention and denying Venezuela faces a crisis.
That may lead lower-level Venezuelan troops — who also suffer from economic hardship — to back Guaidó as he has repeatedly called for Maduro to let the aid into the country. To push those troops over the edge, Trump aimed his Tuesday address directly at them.
Panama Papers ‘tightened the noose’ on offshore assets of Maduro’s inner circle
In the wake of the scandal, it became harder to launder money through investment in Panamanian real estate for Venezuelans who grew rich on the back of their political connections
As authorities in the US, Panama and Spain home in on the Chavistas’ errant billions, those close to the regime are running out of time to secure their foreign assets. In any future rebuilding of the Venezuelan economy a strong emphasis is likely to be put on recovering stolen assets according to Pedro Armada, a Panama City based investigator and forensic accountant.

11 February
As Maduro Digs In, His Aides Hunt for an Emergency Escape Route
By Esteban Duarte, Eric Martin and Ilya Arkhipov
(Bloomberg) The Venezuelan leader has held on for years in the face of protests, a collapsed economy and international sanctions, via a tight grip on the military and by cracking down on the opposition. But the stress has never been greater. The financial noose is tightening globally, many neighbors and western nations are calling on him to hold elections or step aside, and the opposition has galvanized under Juan Guaido into a more cohesive force.
The fate of Maduro, his family and top lieutenants is key to any transition of power in Venezuela, an OPEC member whose population is suffering chronic shortages of food, medicines and basic amenities. A summit of European and Latin American countries held in the Uruguayan capital Montevideo last week agreed to work toward a peaceful political process that leads to new presidential elections in Venezuela.

8 February
Venezuelans ‘ready to fight back’ against Maduro government as military blocks U.S. aid
‘The people will not hesitate to take to the streets and even take up arms if we have to. There is no doubt they will deploy the army, but they are on our side’
(The Telegraph) Sixty tonnes of food and medicine began arriving from the U.S. Thursday and was placed within viewing distance of Venezuela in a high-stakes game designed to put pressure on Nicolas Maduro, the president — and stoke unrest among the local population.
The aid was called in by Juan Guaido, the opposition leader and self-appointed interim president, who has been recognized by 40 countries so far, including Canada, in a challenge to Maduro.
Guaido’s gamble looks to be a lose-lose situation for Maduro.
If he lets the aid in, he tacitly acknowledges Guaido’s authority. If he doesn’t, he risks further inflaming unrest. But a successful blockade will prove the one thing Maduro is relying on at this point — that the military still remains loyal.

5 February
Graphics Truth: How Bad Is Venezuela’s Collapse?
(GZEROMedia) Low oil prices, economic mismanagement, and political uncertainty have plunged Venezuela into an economic tailspin virtually unknown among countries during peacetime. By the end of this year, Venezuela’s economy will have shrunk by 63 percent since the current political crisis erupted in 2016. Here’s how that drop compares with other notable economic collapses over the past century.

4 February
Lima Group embraces Venezuelan opposition leader Guaidó, calls on military to quit Maduro
Foreign ministers from the Lima Group countries — Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Saint Lucia, alongside representatives from the U.K, the EU and the U.S. — met in Ottawa today to further solidify support for Guaidó as protests over the legitimacy of Maduro’s government continue to fill the streets in Venezuela.
The countries of the Lima Group completed their meeting…proclaiming the South American nation’s opposition leader and its National Assembly as full members of the multi-nation group while ruling out military intervention to end the humanitarian crisis gripping the oil-rich nation.
The move elevates Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó to the status of a “fully fledged” member of the group, said Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland. The move further sidelines the authoritarian government of Nicolas Maduro, which has been declared illegitimate by Canada and many of its allies.
The Lima group wrapped its meeting today with a 17-point declaration that included a call for the “national armed forces of Venezuela to demonstrate their loyalty to the interim president in his constitutional functions as their commander in chief.”
That call followed news on Friday that Venezuelan Air Force Gen. Francisco Yanez had switched his allegiance to Guaidó and had called on his fellow officers to do the same.
The Lima Group nations did not encourage any military action against the Maduro regime, however, saying that the countries making up the group “reiterate their support for a process of peaceful transition through political and diplomatic means without the use of force.”
Who Is Venezuela’s Legitimate Leader? A Messy Dispute, Explained
The United States and several countries in Latin America and Europe have recognized Mr. Guaidó as the rightful leader, and he has called on the military to withdraw its support for Mr. Maduro.
But would elevating Mr. Guaidó constitute a democratic transition or a coup?
The answers to these questions, though urgently important, are not at all straightforward. Here is some help in trying to think them through.

Canadian unions helped fund delegation that gave glowing review of Venezuela election widely seen as illegitimate
‘The labour groups who went down there seem to be acting reflexively out of a … left-right agenda rather than a right-wrong approach’
Marie-Danielle Smith
(National Post) Four Canadian unions helped fund a private delegation to observe the Venezuelan presidential election last year, even as Canada, the United States and President Nicolas Maduro’s opponents decried the results as illegitimate.
With many of Maduro’s opponents in jail or barred from running for office and the country’s legislative system already weakened under his rule, opposition leaders had urged international observers not to travel to Caracas to lend legitimacy to the May 2018 proceedings.
The group of six Canadian observers, among them representatives of Common Frontiers, Unifor, the Canadian Union of Postal Workers, the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF), the United Church of Canada and Rabble.ca, lauded Venezuela’s “strong and vibrant democracy,” however, in a report published by Common Frontiers after the May 2018 trip. United Steelworkers and a Toronto personal injury law firm, Carranza LLP, also provided “delegation support,” according to the report.

1 February
Doug Saunders: How Canada almost saved Venezuela – until Washington crashed the party
(Globe & Mail) Venezuela is one place where Canada has done the right thing.
When Venezuelans began to rise against their increasingly dictatorial president, Nicolas Maduro, Ottawa took the considerable risk of providing outspoken support to the democratic opposition.
In 2017, Canada played a key role in organizing the Lima Group – a bloc of 14 Latin American and Caribbean countries that has pressed for the restoration of democracy and the end of atrocities in Caracas – and in urging that group to isolate and sanction the Maduro regime.
When Mr. Maduro’s dictatorship provoked a grotesque humanitarian crisis, with Venezuelans starving and millions of refugees flooding neighbouring countries, Canada was a leader in providing material aid and behind-the-scenes backing to the elected opposition. And on Jan. 23, when Venezuela’s fairly elected legislature announced that under the terms of their constitution, their representative, Juan Guaidó, had become the country’s legitimate leader, the federal government led the way in recognizing him.
The abrupt entry of Donald Trump and his administration[‘s] … ham-fisted embrace of Mr. Guaidó and his movement has made Venezuela’s hopeful, progressive moment – and the growing circle of democratic countries that helped bring that moment about – look to many observers like something else entirely.
Mr. Guaidó, 35, is a social democrat, with a lifelong history of community work on the democratic left. He is a member of Socialist International, whose key members include Britain’s Labour Party, the Democratic Socialists of America – the organization behind Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – and included Canada’s New Democrats until 2018, when the NDP decided to dissociate themselves from the word “socialist.” His political biography is a story of community organizing and progressive politics from his early student activism through to his transformative role – after things turned dark in 2017 – in organizing a nationwide network of open-air town-hall meetings to bring the voices of ordinary Venezuelans into the democratic process.
As Ben Rowswell, who was Canada’s ambassador to Venezuela until 2017, wrote in this paper on Monday, Mr. Trump’s gunboat diplomacy is offensive to Canadians and anyone who understands that “foreign military intervention is a violation of popular sovereignty, not a means to uphold it.”
Worse, some of the more unsavoury figures in Mr. Trump’s circle, such as his national-security adviser John Bolton, have suggested openly that the end of Mr. Maduro might be profitable for the U.S. oil industry. Mr. Maduro could not have devised a better strategy to ensure his hold on power: Now he can claim to be the last bulwark against the Yankee invasion.

28-31 January
The battle for Venezuela’s future
The world’s democracies are right to seek change in Latin America’s worst-governed country
(The Economist, 2 Feb edition) This week we assess the power struggle in Venezuela between Juan Guaidó, who recently proclaimed himself interim president, and the man he would replace, Nicolás Maduro. Many, especially on the left, argue that outsiders should leave Venezuelans to sort out their differences. But the world’s democracies are right to seek change. Venezuelans have been made wretched by six years under Mr Maduro and the region is struggling with the exodus of over 3m of its people fleeing hunger, repression and the socialist dystopia created by the late Hugo Chávez. As countries pile in for Mr Maduro or against him, they are battling over an important idea which has lately fallen from favour: that when a leader pillages his state, oppresses his people and subverts the rule of law, it is everybody’s business. … Mr Guaidó has won the backing of most of Latin America, as well as the United States and Europe. Protests planned for February 2nd promise to be even bigger. But Mr Maduro is supported by the army as well as Russia, China and Turkey.
Venezuela’s Juan Guaidó recognized as head of state by EU
(CBC) In a statement with the non-binding vote, the parliament urged the bloc’s 28 governments to follow suit and consider Guaidó “the only legitimate interim president” until there were “new free, transparent and credible presidential elections.” Britain, France, Germany and Spain said on Saturday, however, that they would recognize Guaidó unless Maduro called elections within eight days. But the EU as a whole has not set a time limit in its call for a new presidential vote.
Analysis: Putin wins, the longer Venezuela’s Maduro hangs on
Juan Guaidó barred from leaving Venezuela
In Venezuela, Canada promotes democracy. The U.S. does not
By Ben Rowswell, Canada’s ambassador to Venezuela from 2014 to 2017
There’s No Case for War With Venezuela
The public doesn’t want it. Congress won’t authorize it. So why is the Trump administration declaring it an option?
(The Atlantic) If a war were begun, neither Congress nor the public would possess the resolve to see it through to a successful conclusion.

Lima Group bloc will meet in Canada on Feb. 4 for Venezuela talks
Canada hosting ‘urgent’ Lima Group meeting on Venezuela as U.S sanctions oil
Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland on Monday called on Nicolas Maduro to cede power to Venezuela’s National Assembly, “the only remaining democratic institution” in the country.
Canada is right to recognize Juan Guaidó as the interim president of Venezuela
The hands of Venezuelans have been tied for years. They want change
Trump steps up Maduro pressure with sanctions on Venezuelan oil company
Sanctions on $7bn in assets intended to boost Guaidó
The Trump administration has tightened the screws on Venezuela’s embattled president, Nicolás Maduro, announcing sanctions against the country’s state-owned oil company PDVSA in what the US national security adviser admitted was partly an attempt to counter strategic threats from Cuba and Iran.
….US treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin told reporters the sanctions would help punish “those responsible for Venezuela’s tragic decline” and boost Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader who last week declared himself Venezuela’s rightful interim president and was recognized by the United States..
The sanctions – which represent the US’s toughest economic move against Maduro to date – come five days after Guaidó’s dramatic declaration sparked Venezuela’s latest political crisis.

27 January
Photo credit: Reuters: Carlos Garcia Rawlins
Who Is Venezuela’s Juan Guaidó?
(NPR) In less than a month, Juan Guaidó has risen from obscure, junior lawmaker to self-proclaimed interim president of Venezuela and the most serious threat yet to the authoritarian government of Nicolás Maduro.
As a member of the Popular Will party, Guaidó in 2015 won a seat to the National Assembly – Venezuela’s legislature – amid an opposition sweep of congressional elections. But that momentum quickly stalled.
Guaidó, who defied Maduro by taking the oath of office on Wednesday, claims to lead a transitional government that will call free elections and return Venezuela to democracy. The 35-year-old was immediately recognized as Venezuela’s legitimate leader by the United States, Canada and most Latin American nations and received widespread support from European countries.

Power & Politics NDP questions Trudeau’s response to Venezuela crisis (video)
…excellent interview with Ben Rowswell, Canada’s former ambassador to Venezuela, who articulately defends Canada’s position stating that backing Guaido and the National Assembly is standing with the only democratically elected institution left in the country while striking its own path.

24 January
Venezuela: The Rise and Fall of a Petrostate
(Council on Foreign Relations) Venezuela’s descent into economic and political chaos in recent years is a cautionary tale of the dangerous influence that resource wealth can have on developing countries.
Since its discovery in the 1920s, oil has taken Venezuela on an exhilarating but dangerous boom-and-bust ride that offers lessons for other resource-rich states. Decades of poor governance have driven what was once one of Latin America’s most prosperous countries to economic and political ruin.

23 January
U.S. recognizes opposition leader as Venezuela president, weighs oil sanctions
(Reuters) With street protests against Maduro underway across Venezuela, Trump said the United States recognized Juan Guaido, head of the opposition-controlled Congress, as the country’s leader and called socialist President Nicolas Maduro’s government “illegitimate.”

10 January
Canada slams Venezuela’s Maduro’s 2nd term as ‘illegitimate’ as he is sworn in
Thursday’s inauguration of Nicolas Maduro has solidified him as a dictator, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a scathing denunciation of the Venezuelan president that aligned Canada with major allies.

9 January
(The Economist) On Thursday, January 10, Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, will be sworn in for a second six-year term. Mr Maduro has a claim to be the worst president of any country not at war. Under him Venezuela’s GDP has dropped by nearly half, violence has soared and health care has all but collapsed. A tenth of the population, about 3m people, has emigrated since 2014. How long Mr Maduro remains in power depends on the loyalty of his cronies