Africa: Conflict and governance April 2024-

Why This is a Key Year for Democracy in Africa
19 elections are scheduled. Not all will be free or fair.
(Global Dispatches) 2024 is an important year for African democracy. At least 19 national elections are scheduled to take place this year. Not all of these elections will be free or fair — let alone competitive. Some of these elections will serve to ensconce leaders for life like Rwanda’s Paul Kagame. Others may serve to consolidate power following a coup. But genuine multi-party democracies like Ghana and South Africa are also headed to the polls in important elections.
Algeria, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Chad, Comoros, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Senegal, South Sudan, South Africa, Tunisia and Somaliland (not technically a country in the sense that it’s a UN member state, but quasi-independent, to be sure) are all scheduled to hold elections this year. (15 February)

8 September
Algeria’s president joins opponents in claiming election irregularities after being named the winner
President Abdelmadjid Tebboune doubted his own numbers.
(AP via Politico) After being declared the winner of Algeria’s election, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune joined his two challengers in criticizing the country’s election authority for announcing results that contradicted earlier turnout figures and local tallies.
In a country where elections have historically been carefully choreographed affairs, such astonishing questions about irregularities shocked Algerians who expected Tebboune to win in a relatively uneventful fashion.
It’s unclear what will follow all three candidates casting doubt on irregularities and whether they will prompt legal challenges or delay the final certification of the result.
The tally reported on Sunday gave Tebboune a total vote share that was far more than the 87% that Vladimir Putin won in Russia’s March elections and the 92% that Ilham Aliyev got in Azerbaijan’s February contest.
But efforts from Tebboune and members of his government to encourage voter turnout to project legitimacy appeared to have fallen short, with less than one out of every four voters participating.

5 September
DR Congo receives first shipment of mpox vaccines
Authorities aim to start vaccinations in October but face logistical challenges as doses need to be kept cold.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has received its first batch of mpox vaccines, which health authorities hope will help curb an outbreak that has prompted the United Nations to declare a global public health emergency.
Mpox has been reported in at least 13 African countries, according to an August 27 update from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC). On Wednesday, Guinea said it had recorded its first confirmed case of the disease and other countries have also promised to send vaccine doses to African nations.
The virus has also been detected in Pakistan, the Philippines, Sweden and Thailand.
The DRC, a Central African country of about 100 million people, is at the epicentre of an mpox outbreak that the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global public health emergency last month.
14 August
WHO Director-General declares mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern

26 August
Mpox, previously known as monkeypox, is a viral illness caused by the monkeypox virus

21 August
Addressing and preventing coups in Africa: What the United States can do
Vanda Felbab-Brown
(Brookings) As coups d’etat have swept West Africa and may expand into the Great Lakes Region and East Africa, U.S. policy responses have struggled. Economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation by the West have proven insufficient to reverse the power takeovers. With U.S. foreign policy focused primarily on great power competition with China and Russia and motivated by a strong desire to extricate the United States from internal conflicts, the United States does not have the will to reverse the coups militarily. Washington will thus increasingly face tough dilemmas of upholding its democratic commitments while losing strategic and economic access or accommodating in some ways to authoritarian governments. Only once the current tilt toward authoritarianism proves itself unable to deliver better security and governance will the United States have a strong capacity to encourage democratic reforms in countries that have fallen into authoritarian hands. But Washington can and should do more to prevent coups before they happen, and even in the authoritarian regimes, it should seek to strengthen democratic forces and moderate power abuses.
… in engaging with both authoritarian governments or electorally-legitimated ones, Washington should be willing to push for better governance. In more permissive environments, it should encourage stronger civilian control measures through tools beyond giving African officers human rights and civ-mil training. The United States should develop tracking mechanisms and intelligence assets to detect coup preparation and provide early warning to governing authorities.
But Washington should also get far tougher with elected officials about checks and balances, truly free and representative elections, institutional and civil service strengthening, and independent empowered justice systems. When the elected government’s inclinations are parochial, Washington should push against them, encouraging instead economic and social policies that generate resources and opportunities for the African people.

16 August
Zimbabwe’s ‘poor’ rights record clouds SADC summit
Isaac Kaledzi
The 16-nation Southern African Development Community summit in Harare seeks to prioritize an economic growth agenda for the region. But the human rights record of host nation Zimbabwe has overshadowed the talks.
Zimbabwe is hosting the Southern African Development Community summit this weekend for the first time in a decade, with President Emmerson Mnangagwa assuming the chair of the 16-member bloc at the meeting.
The SADC’s major goals are to reduce poverty, improve the standard of living for the people of southern Africa, promote economic development, peace, security, and growth, and assist the socially disadvantaged through regional integration.
Mnangagwa’s administration, though, has come under a lot of scrutiny for several human rights violations and a crackdown on his political opponents.

15-18 July
Rwanda’s president smashes his own election record
(BBC) Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame has smashed his own record by winning Monday’s elections with more than 99% of the vote, full provisional results show.
The 66-year-old won the 2017 election with 98.63% of the vote, higher than the 93% he got in 2010 and the 95% in 2003.
His critics say Mr Kagame’s thundering majorities come as no surprise as he rules with an iron hand.
However, his supporters say they point to his huge popularity, with Rwanda having achieved stability and economic growth under his rule.
Paul Kagame banned opponents like me from Rwanda’s election. No wonder he cruised to victory
Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza, a Rwandan opposition leader
The president won 99% of the vote. But that isn’t a sign of popularity – it’s a sign of a ‘democracy’ that silences all dissent
(The Guardian) Since the end of the civil war and the genocide against the Tutsis in 1994, Rwanda’s ruling party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), has dominated the political space. Its leader, Paul Kagame, scored upwards of 90% in the previous three presidential elections, and this week appears to have beaten his own record, with provisional results showing that he has won 99.15% of the vote. But this victory has been won while excluding several prominent opponents from standing – including me. This makes the just-concluded elections no different to previous ones, and only underscores the country’s lack of democracy.
With Rivals Restricted, Kagame Looks Set for Another Term in Rwanda
(NYT) The Central African nation is voting on a potential fourth term for President Paul Kagame. Opposition figures say they have been threatened and arbitrarily detained.
On Monday, more than nine million people are casting their ballots in a presidential and parliamentary election that analysts and rights groups say is a rubber-stamp vote with a foregone conclusion. Even though hundreds of candidates have registered to run for various seats, only Mr. Kagame’s face dots the landscapes of this hilly, landlocked nation of 14 million people.

6 July
Junta-led Sahel states rule out return to West African economic bloc
(Reuters) – Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, three West African states led by the military, signed a confederation treaty on Saturday, underscoring their determination to chart a joint course outside a regional economic bloc that has been urging them to return to democratic rule.
The signing took place at the first summit of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and signals a closer alignment between the neighbours in the insurgency-torn central Sahel. Juntas seized control in a series of coups in the three states in 2020-2023 and severed military and diplomatic ties with regional allies and Western powers.

26 June
The International Criminal Court on Wednesday [26 June] convicted an al-Qaida-linked extremist leader of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Mali, notably for abusing prisoners as the de facto chief of the Islamic police in the historic desert city of Timbuktu. (Al Jazeera/The World) Al Hassan Ag Abdoul Aziz Ag Mohamed Ag Mahmoud sat stoically while the decision finding him guilty of torture and cruel treatment between 2012 and 2013 was read out. Judges continued to read the verdict on the many other charges he faced for his alleged role in a reign of terror insurgents unleashed on Timbuktu, including rape, torture, persecution, enforced marriages and sexual slavery. Al Hassan faces up to life imprisonment when a sentence is handed down at a later date. Prosecutors say he was a key member of Ansar Dine, an extremist group with links to al-Qaida that held power in northern Mali at the time.

25 May
‘We didn’t fight for this’: ANC’s grip on power in peril in South Africa election
Thirty years after the end of apartheid, corruption is rife, crime is high and the economy is a mess. The party of Mandela admits it ‘made mistakes’. But will the people forgive them?
(The Guardian) As South Africa prepares to go to the polls on Wednesday, 30 years on from the first democratic elections, it is a nation in crisis. It’s the most unequal country in the world and among the most dangerous. The economy is stagnant, with almost zero growth in a decade and nearly half of adults are out of work.

21 May
5 ways that free trade can boost sustainable agriculture in Africa
The continent is undergoing unprecedented changes, with the implementation of the African Continent Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) – which aims to eliminate trade barriers and boost intra-African trade – projected to represent a single market of 1.7 billion people and $6.7 trillion in consumer and business spending for the region by 2030.
… However, despite its crucial role in the African economy, most of the farming systems are not sustainable. It’s therefore important to unleash Africa’s agricultural capacity, especially that of smallholder farmers, in order to meet local and international demand for food, create more jobs, expand intra-Africa trade and make Africa a continent of infinite opportunities.
Here are five focus areas to drive the continent’s food production from potentiality to sustainability by leveraging the benefits of the AfCFTA.

Hundreds of hostages, mostly children and women, who were held captive for months or years by Boko Haram extremists in northeastern Nigeria, have been rescued from a forest enclave and handed over to authorities, the army said.
9the Republic) The 350 hostages had been held in the Sambisa Forest, a hideout for the extremist group which launched an insurgency in 2009, Maj. Gen. Ken Chigbu, a senior Nigerian army officer, said late Monday while presenting them to authorities in Borno, where the forest is. The 209 children, 135 women and six men appeared exhausted in their worn-out clothes. Some of the girls had babies believed to have been born from forced marriages, as is often the case with female victims who are either raped or forced to marry the militants while in captivity. One of the hostages had seven children and spoke of how she and others couldn’t escape because of their children.
The army said the hostages were rescued during a days-long military operation in Sambisa Forest, which was once a bustling forest reserve that stretches along the border with Cameroon and Niger, but now serves as an enclave from where Boko Haram and its breakaway factions carry out attacks that also target people and security forces in neighboring countries.

20 May
The foiled coup in DR Congo: Here’s what to know
(Reuters) Security forces thwarted a coup attempt in the Democratic Republic of Congo on Sunday in which armed men targeted the homes of top officials and briefly occupied the office of the presidency in the capital Kinshasa, authorities said.
In the early hours of Sunday, a group of around 50 men armed in camouflage fatigues attacked the residences of the prime minister, the defence minister, and a senior politician tipped to become speaker of parliament, according to the army.
Soon after, security forces moved in, killing the group’s leader, U.S.-based Congolese politician Christian Malanga, and three others. Around 40 others were arrested, the army said.
Congo authorities said participants in the coup attempt included foreigners and Congolese citizens. Three U.S. citizens, including Malanga’s son, were among those detained, [army spokesperson Sylvain] Ekenge said.
The drama comes at a delicate time for President Tshisekedi, who is struggling to curb a two-year offensive by Rwanda-backed rebels in eastern Congo that threatens to spill over into a broader conflict.
Five months after Tshisekedi’s disputed re-election, the ruling coalition has failed to form a government due to internal rivalries over jobs, despite a large majority in parliament.

A live-streamed attempted coup in Congo shakes the region
The involvement of Americans in the botched putsch is embarrassing for Washington as it tries to maintain influence
(The Economist) In the very early hours of May 19th around 50 armed and camouflaged men screeched through Kinshasa, Congo’s capital. First they attacked the home of Vital Kamerhe, a government minister. After a fruitless 40-minute firefight with his guards, the attackers moved on to the Palais de la Nation, the official residence of Félix Tshisekedi, the president.
There, the supposed leader of the coup had ample time to live-stream his rebellion on Facebook. “We can’t put up with Tshisekedi and Kamerhe any longer,” declared Christian Malanga, an eccentric Congolese politician and former army officer, as his men held up flags of the Republic of Zaire, as Congo was named until 1997 when Mobutu Sese Seko, a kleptocrat, was deposed by Rwanda-backed rebels.

2 May
RFSD Calls for Aligning Pact for the Future with Africa’s Priorities
The 2024 Africa Regional Forum on Sustainable Development (RFSD) adopted the ‘Addis Ababa declaration on the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions to reinforce the 2030 Agenda and Agenda 2063 and to eradicate poverty in times of multiple crises.’ The declaration reflects Africa’s priorities for the Summit of the Future in September.
Participants focused on five SDGs under HLPF review this year – SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 2 (zero hunger), – SDG 13 (climate action), SDG 16 (peace, justice and strong institutions), and SDG 17 (partnerships for the Goals) – and the corresponding goals of Agenda 2063.
– Delegates shared experiences, good practices, and lessons learned from implementing the two agendas.
– Along with key messages, the Addis Ababa Declaration will be presented at the July session of the High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development, the Summit of the Future in September, and the UN Climate Change Conference in November.
The tenth session of the Africa RFSD convened from 23-25 April 2024 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in hybrid format. Participants focused on five SDGs under HLPF review this year – SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 2 (zero hunger), SDG 13 (climate action), SDG 16 (peace, justice and strong institutions), and SDG 17 (partnerships for the Goals) – and the corresponding goals of Agenda 2063. Delegates shared experiences, good practices, and lessons learned from implementing the two agendas.

23 April
Tanzania
World Bank suspends Tanzania tourism funding after claims of killings and evictions that caused the suffering of tens of thousands of villagers, according to a US-based rights group that has long urged the global lender to take such action.
(The World/AP) The World Bank has suspended financing intended to improve the management of natural resources and tourism assets in a remote part of southern Tanzania after allegations of killings, rape and forced evictions.
The plan to expand Ruaha national park has been beset by allegations of abuse, leading bank to withhold final $50m of $150m budget
The World Bank’s decision to suspend the $150 million project, which aims in a remote part of southern Tanzania, was “long overdue.”
At least $100 million has already been disbursed for the project, which started in 2017. The suspension of World Bank financing took effect April 18. The Oakland Institute, a California-based rights watchdog whose work focuses on marginalized communities, for years led calls for the World Bank to stop funding the project known by the acronym REGROW, documenting serious rights abuses suffered by Indigenous communities in the area.
8 April
‘This Will Finish Us’
How Gulf princes, the safari industry, and conservation groups are displacing the Maasai from the last of their Serengeti homeland
By Stephanie McCrummen
(The Atlantic) More and more of the finest, lushest land in northern Tanzania was being set aside for conservation, which turned out to mean for trophy hunters and tourists on “bespoke expeditions.”
Global leaders are seeking what they consider to be undeveloped land to meet a stated goal of conserving 30 percent of the planet’s surface by 2030. Corporations want undisturbed forests in order to offset pollution. Western conservation groups, which refer to the Maasai as “stakeholders” on their own land, exert great influence, as does a booming safari industry that sells an old and destructive myth—casting the Serengeti as some primordial wilderness, with the Maasai as cultural relics obstructing a perfect view.
The reality is that the Maasai have been stewards, integral to creating that very ecosystem. The same can be said of Indigenous groups around the world, to whom conservation often feels like a land grab. In the past two decades, more than a quarter million Indigenous people have been evicted to make way for ecotourism, carbon-offset schemes, and other activities that fall under the banner of conservation. That figure is expected to soar.
For all its accomplishments, the cause of saving the planet has become a trillion-dollar business, a global scramble in which wealthy nations are looking to the developing world not just for natural resources, but for nature itself. The wealthy players include not only Europeans and Americans but Arabs and Chinese and others. On the African continent, political leaders are enthusiastic about what so-called green foreign investment might mean for their own economies (and, maybe, their bank accounts).

7 April
Documenting the Rwandan genocide
(Al Jazeera) On April 7, 1994, one of the most harrowing events in modern history began: the Rwandan genocide.

5 April
Fears of violence grow as Somalia scraps power-sharing system
Semi-autonomous state of Puntland refuses to recognise changes to the fragile country’s constitution and has withdrawn from the federal system
An overhaul of Somalia’s constitution, scrapping its power-sharing system and handing the president increased control, is threatening to destabilise the fragile country, as its wealthiest and most stable state refuses to recognise the changes.
The amendments risk worsening violence, the information minister from the semi-autonomous state of Puntland has warned. Mohamud Aidid Dirir told the Guardian that “almost a totally new constitution” had been introduced without input from the state’s leaders. He accused the Somali president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, of using parliament to “gather authority into his hands”.
… Somalia’s central government collapsed in 1991, plunging the country into civil war, made worse with the emergence of the jihadist group al-Shabaab in the mid-2000s. Millions of people have been displaced by fighting between militants and the army, and years of drought caused by failed rains. About 6.9 million people are in need of humanitarian aid.

3 April
Zimbabwean president declares state of disaster due to drought
Emmerson Mnangagwa says country needs $2bn of aid as severe dry spell caused by El Niño afflicts southern Africa
(The Guardian) Due to poor rains, more than 2.7 million people will not have enough food to put on the table this year, he warned. This season’s grain harvest was expected to bring in just over half of the cereals needed to feed the nation, he said.
Former rebels in Central African Republic disarm but face few options. Wagner is one of them
(AP) — The bodies of children killed in the crossfire lay on the ground. It was too much for the rebel. After a year of fighting rivals across Central African Republic, the abuses were mounting and he wanted out.
The 42-year-old took advantage of a nationwide program meant to help people like him lay down their guns. He trained in entrepreneurship, received a bi-weekly stipend of about $35 and was told to return to civilian life.
But there’s little normal life for veteran fighters in one of the world’s most volatile countries. He couldn’t find work, was shunned by his family for his violent past and was threatened by enemies. Two years later he became a fighter again, this time helping Russian mercenaries combat the armed groups he had left.
… Another armed presence is Wagner, the Russian mercenary group tasked with protecting the presidency and securing the country. Its fighters have been accused by rights groups and civilians of recruiting a local militia to help it fight rebels while committing abuses and exploiting Central African Republic’s rich mines and forests.

2 April
Bassirou Diomaye Faye sworn in as Senegal’s youngest president
Leftwinger one of a group of opposition politicians freed from prison 10 days before presidential ballot
27 March
‘We are finally free’: Senegal hails new anti-establishment president

27 March
Togo’s opposition calls for protests to stop president from signing off on a new constitution
(AP) Togo’s government said a planned three-day protest this week over the arrest of opposition figures and new legislation scrapping president elections was illegal, a move that heightened tensions in the West African nation that has been ruled by the same family for almost 60 years. The interior and security ministries said the protests set to begin Thursday would seriously disturb public order. In a separate notice, the government also delayed parliamentary elections until April 29, pushing the vote back by just over a week. The proposed constitution passed by lawmakers in late March grants parliament the power to choose the president, doing away with direct elections. It makes it likely that President Faure Gnassingbe would be reelected when his mandate expires in 2025.
Some legal experts say the constitution actually restricts the power of future presidents as it introduces a one-term limit and hands over greater power to a figure similar to a prime minister. But opposition fears the role — officially, the president of the council of ministers — could become another avenue for Gnassingbe to extend his grip on power.