Iran-Israel April 2024-

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2 October
US does not back strike on Iran nuclear sites; Iran ‘not looking for war’
Joe Biden says Israeli response to Iran attack must be ‘proportional’; Iran’s president says pledged a stronger response if Israel retaliates
Biden says he does not support strike on Iran’s nuclear sites
Joe Biden, the US president, has said he does not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites as Israel vowed to respond to Iran’s missile attack on Tuesday.
“The answer is no,” he said in response to the question.
We’ll be discussing with the Israelis what they’re going to do, but all seven of us [G7 nations] agree that they have a right to respond but they should respond proportionally.
Biden also told reporters that there would be more sanctions imposed on Iran and said he would speak “relatively soon” with the Israeli leader, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Exclusive: Iran’s Khamenei warned Nasrallah of Israeli plot to kill him, sources say
By Samia Nakhoul and Laila Bassam
Iran concerned about possible infiltration of its own
Trust damaged by Nasrallah’s assassination by Israel
Hezbollah investigating deep Mossad infiltration
Investigation was led by Nabil Kaouk; disrupted by his killing Nasrallah’s death has left Hezbollah leaderless and shaken trust
(Reuters) – Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Hezbollah leader Syyed Hassan Nasrallah to flee Lebanon days before he was killed in an Israeli strike and is now deeply worried about Israeli infiltration of senior government ranks in Tehran, three Iranian sources said.
Iran’s fears for the safety of Khamenei and the loss of trust, within both Hezbollah and Iran’s establishment and between them, emerged in the conversations with 10 sources for this story, who described a situation that could complicate the effective functioning of Iran’s Axis of Resistance alliance of anti-Israel irregular armed groups.

1 October
Thomas Friedman: The First Volleys of a Ballistic Missile War in the Mideast
Update, 2:15 p.m.: As forecast below, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel beginning around 12:30 p.m. Eastern time. The Israeli antimissile system shot down almost all of them, Israeli sources said, and while there was some damage the attack was not considered particularly successful. There are no reports at this time of extensive casualties.
The attack was executed by the Air Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and was not an operation of the regular Iranian army or air force, according to Israeli sources. The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was not informed of the attack until shortly before it began, the sources said, indicating that the Iranian regime is divided over the operation, which will probably add to the fractures in the government.
We may be about to enter what could be the most dangerous moment in the history of the modern Middle East: a ballistic missile war between Iran and Israel, which would almost certainly bring in the United States on Israel’s side and could culminate in a full-blown U.S.-Israeli effort to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
… The Israeli intelligence assessment is that the Iranian people by and large do not want this war with Israel. There has long been discontent in Iran over the billions of dollars the regime has spent supporting Hamas and Hezbollah at a time when Iranian infrastructure is so dilapidated and the country’s economy is on its back. The message the Israelis hope the U.S. can convey to Iran is also that if they start this war and it leads to great destruction and death of Iranian civilians, it could also trigger an uprising against the regime.
In the last year we have seen red lines crossed left and right — from the savage Hamas onslaught on Israel on Oct. 7 to the Israeli pager attack against Hezbollah’s leadership and the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The Iranians feel their deterrence has been eroded and need to respond.
This is Code Red time. Because once you start crossing red lines, they all disappear.

Netanyahu says ‘Iran made a big mistake’; IDF launches fresh strikes on Beirut
Israeli prime minister says Iran ‘will pay’ for strikes; Israeli military issues new warning to residents in the southern suburbs of Beirut
Julian Borger
(The Guardian) The forces of restraint in the Middle East are weakening with every passing day. Politically speaking, the Biden administration cannot be seen as tying Israel’s hands in the face of an Iranian attack on Israeli cities. The Iranian regime (the IRGC in particular) is feeling the pressure to show its regional proxies and allies, from Hezbollah to the Houthis in Yemen, that it is not a weakling but a regional power of substance, the leader of the “axis of resistance”.
Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, has a freer hand. With Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv, it is far harder for Washington to try to influence his actions, and much tougher for the prime minister’s opponents to call for his ousting.
Today, Netanyahu is also significantly closer to his longstanding ambition: to involve the US in a war on Iran which will destroy its nuclear programme, now close to the capacity to make a weapon after the collapse of the 2015 multilateral agreement, the JCPOA, which kept the programme within limits.
Israel vows response to Iran missile attack as fears of conflict escalation rise
Tehran warns Israel’s allies against intervening
Israel says school damaged by a missile, no casualties reported
Iran missile attack was ‘severe escalation,’ Israel says
Any Israel response to be met by ‘vast destruction,’ Iran says
(Reuters) – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised that arch foe Iran would pay for its missile attack against Israel on Tuesday, while Tehran said any retaliation would be met with “vast destruction”, raising fears of a wider war.
Iran launches salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel
Revolutionary Guards say response would be ‘more crushing and ruinous’ if Israel retaliates
A senior Iranian official tells Reuters the order to launch missiles against Israel came from Iran’s Supreme Leader
Israel’s airspace has been closed after Iran’s attack, says the Israeli military
(Reuters) – Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.
Alarms sounded across Israel and explosions could be heard in Jerusalem and the Jordan River valley after Israelis piled into bomb shelters. Reporters on state television lay flat on the ground during live broadcasts.

30 September
PM Netanyahu: “The people of Iran should know – Israel stands with you” (YouTube)
I speak a lot about the leaders of Iran.
Yet at this pivotal moment, I want to address you – the people of Iran. I want to do so directly, without filters, without middlemen.
Every day, you see a regime that subjugates you, make fiery speeches about defending Lebanon, defending Gaza.
Yet every day, that regime plunges our region deeper into darkness and deeper into war.
Freedom for Iran will come “a lot sooner than people think”
After killing Nasrallah, Bibi is now the most popular politician among Iranians opposing the regime. There are thousands of « thank you » messages pouring in on Twitter!
Hezbollah Got Caught in Its Own Trap
How Nasrallah’s death remade the strategic landscape
Hussein Ibish
(The Atlantic) During a year of conflict in the Middle East, Israel and the Palestinians have bled while Iran and its regional allies have benefited at virtually no cost. Now Israel appears to have reshaped the landscape with its devastating war on Iran’s most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Hezbollah’s leadership is decimated, its command and control in disarray, and its intelligence and inner workings thoroughly penetrated, exposed, and vulnerable. Its personnel and heavy equipment are being degraded on a daily basis. Tehran’s strategy of relying on Hezbollah and other militant groups to provide an Arab-forward defense against Israeli or American attacks on Iran’s homeland or nuclear facilities appears to be failing, potentially decisively.
What will Nasrallah’s death mean for the Middle East?
Jeffrey Feltman
(Brookings) Israel’s assassination of Nasrallah, combined with the elimination of other leaders and followers, sets Hezbollah back in the immediate term.  But it does not eliminate the threat of an organization that has shown resilience in the past and remains heavily armed. The question is what happens now with Iran, Israel, and the Lebanese themselves. 
Iran has indicated publicly and privately that it does not wish to see a region-wide war in which Iran is directly involved.  But in the face of its partner’s humiliation, does Tehran dare come across to its proxies in Iraq and Yemen as passive, relying solely on the Houthis and others (including Hezbollah itself) for a response? 
Israel is likely to press its current military advantage, dismissing international outrage over civilian deaths and ignoring U.S. cease-fire proposals. 
A Weakened Iran May Take Time to Plot Revenge
(Bloomberg) While Iran says it’s weighing a response, there are clear signals that it isn’t going to act directly — and not immediately. Tehran says it will leave the counterattack to Hezbollah and other proxy groups weakened by waves of Israeli strikes — a continuation of the years-long shadow war between the adversaries.
Both Hezbollah and Hamas are down, not out. And as Israel showed with exploding pagers in Lebanon, revenge can be years in the making.
Iran is still operating through allies that can attack global shipping and target Western interests in the Middle East. Diplomatic efforts by the US and other powers to halt the violence have so far failed. The region may be teetering on the brink for some time to come.
Is Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ collapsing under Israeli attacks?
(NBC news) For decades, Iran has relied on Hezbollah and other proxies as its first line of defense. But after Israel inflicted unprecedented damage on the “axis,” Tehran faces a dilemma.
The Iranian regime viewed Hezbollah as a cornerstone of a strategy to outflank militarily superior adversaries with armed proxies, funded and trained by Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which Tehran dubbed the “axis of resistance.”
Equipping Hezbollah with an arsenal of rockets and missiles, along with other groups in Gaza, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, Iran gambled that it could steadily weaken Israel and the U.S. and flex its muscle while avoiding a direct confrontation that it could not win.
But Iran’s strategy underestimated how Israel would respond to the Hamas terrorist attack of Oct. 7 and subsequent cross-border rocket fire from Hezbollah. Tehran also overestimated the strength of its proxy network, former intelligence officers and counterterrorism analysts said.

Israel prepares to invade Lebanon, threatens Iran
(GZERO media) Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is issuing bold threats to Iran, even telling Iranians they will be free from their regime “a lot sooner than people think.” The messaging comes after Netanyahu said in his address to the United Nations General Assembly on Friday that “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that is true of the entire Middle East.”
While these are so far only threats, they raise the question of whether Israel is planning to attack Iran, its nuclear program, or perhaps even its Supreme Leader Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khameneior other senior leaders as the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate.
“Netanyahu is on a roll. The killing of Nasrallah clearly shows that Bibi is assuming more risk than observers expected,” says Eurasia Group’s Head of Research Cliff Kupchan.
“It’s still probably true that hitting Iranian leaders, weapons, or nuclear assets is too risky. If Iran has any red lines, those actions would cross it. But this version of Bibi is a gambler. If the chance of Israel hitting Iran was close to nil last week, it’s higher this week.”

29 September
Iran’s president denounces Israeli attacks on Tehran’s regional allies
(Reuters) – Israel should not be allowed to attack countries in the Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” one after the other, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday.
Israel said it had bombed Houthi targets in Yemen on Sunday, expanding its confrontation with Iran’s allies in the region after killing the Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday in an escalating conflict in Lebanon.
Pezeshkian, in comments carried by state media, said Lebanon should be supported.
Israel launches strikes on Yemeni Houthi targets
(Reuters) – Israel launched strikes at Houthi targets in Yemen on Sunday after the Houthi militants fired missiles at Israel over the past two days, marking a fresh exchange in another front of the regional conflict.
The Israeli military said in a statement that dozens of aircraft, including fighter jets, attacked power plants and a sea port at the Ras Issa and Hodeidah ports.
The strikes caused power outages in most parts of the port city of Hodeidah, residents said.

28 September
Iran’s Khamenei slams ‘criminal’ Israel for killing Hezbollah’s Nasrallah
(Al Jazeera) Supreme leader defiant after killing of Hassan Nasrallah, saying Israel had not seriously hurt Hezbollah’s ‘solid structure’.
Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian figures whose killings were blamed on Israel
Israel’s military claims that Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was killed in a massive Israeli strike on Beirut.

12 August
Fearing war, unsettled at home, Iran weighs retaliation against Israel
Iran seeks to project a show of force while avoiding a regional war, a task that has become more difficult after its first direct attack on Israel, which occurred in April.
Since Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination, Israel, Washington and the wider Middle East have nervously waited — and waited — for Iran’s promised retaliation. Nearly two weeks later, the response has yet to come, as Tehran wrestles with how to calibrate its counterattack.
In public, Iranian officials are continuing to warn of a “tough” reprisal to “punish” Israel. But in private meetings with the leaders of its armed proxies, according to those familiar with the conversations, Iran has called for caution — seeking to balance any show of force with the desire to avoid an all-out war in the region.

7 August
Arab States Urge Iran to Show Restraint in Conflict With Israel
(NYT) Several Arab countries are encouraging Iran to exercise restraint in responding to the assassination of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran last week, as fears of an unpredictable regional war expand.
The diplomatic blitz, led by countries allied with the United States, came as the Biden administration was trying to lower tensions in the Middle East and renew efforts to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza.
But the diplomacy also reflected concerns among some Arab countries of being dragged into a major conflict that could destabilize their economies and undermine their security.
Amid a flurry of international diplomatic activity to avert a wider war in the Middle East, France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, spoke to Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, on Wednesday, according to a statement from Mr. Macron’s office. France’s leader called on Mr. Pezeshkian “to do everything in his power to avoid a new military escalation, which would be in nobody’s interest, including Iran’s,” the statement said. It added that Mr. Macron was sending the same message to all actors in the region that he was in contact with and reiterated France’s support for “an immediate cease-fire in Gaza and a firm refusal of any escalation with Lebanon.”
3 August
Iran Arrests Dozens in Search for Suspects in Killing of Hamas Leader
Iran has begun a sweeping investigation into the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, with its intensity a sign of how damaging and shocking the security failure was.
(NYT) Iran has arrested more than two dozen people, including senior intelligence officers, military officials and staff workers at a military-run guesthouse in Tehran, in response to a huge and humiliating security breach that enabled the assassination of a top leader of Hamas, according to two Iranians familiar with the investigation.
The fervor of the response to the killing of Mr. Haniyeh underscores what a devastating security failure this was for Iran’s leadership, with the assassination occurring at a heavily guarded compound in the country’s capital within hours of the swearing-in ceremony of the country’s new president.
“The perception that Iran can neither protect its homeland nor its key allies could be fatal for the Iranian regime, because it basically signals to its foes that if they can’t topple the Islamic Republic, they can decapitate it,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran director for the International Crisis Group.
Israel Braces for Iranian Retaliation After Assassinations
(NYT) An uneasy calm hung over Israel on Saturday as the country braced for a threatened Iranian retaliation for the assassinations of senior Hamas and Hezbollah figures, with fears escalating that Israel’s long-running hostilities between Iran and its allies could intensify into a wider regional war.
The Israeli public is already worn down by 10 months of fighting in Gaza following the Oct. 7 attack led by Hamas on the country, and by attacks on other fronts. Hezbollah and the Israeli military have for months traded fire across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, and Iran in April launched a wave of missiles and drones at Israel in response to a strike on its embassy complex in Syria.

31 July
Ian Bremmer: Danger alert after Hamas leader assassinated in Iran
Almost certainly carried out by the Israelis. This is a big attack. It’s an enormous success for the Israeli Defense Forces. It is potentially a very significant escalation in the conflict across the Middle East with a so-called Iran-led Axis of Resistance, of which Hamas, of course, is a core part. Also shows the weakness of the United States in its lack of influence over the Israeli government, over the Israeli military. So an awful lot of moving parts here.
Let’s first talk about what we know. This is an enormous embarrassment. It is a security failure. It is an intelligence failure for the Iranian government. The idea that the leader, the political leader of Hamas who was there invited by the Iranian government in a secure military compound for the inauguration taken out and killed by the Israelis, enormously embarrassing. The Supreme leader has already said that there will be significant retaliation. The Iranian permanent mission in the UN said special operations in kind, which implies not military targets, but perhaps civilian government targets in Israel. This clearly has the potential to spill over into broader conflict between Iran and Israel. The one thing that would really have a regional impact, a global economic impact despite the prices of oil and also likely draw the Americans directly in. I wouldn’t say that this is more likely than not to happen, but it is more likely than at any point that we’ve seen in the war thus far.
… The United States…was not aware, had no coordination with, no intelligence sharing with Israel in the run-up to this attack. Let’s keep in mind the US did everything they could to defend Israel when the Iranians were sending drones and missiles against them. Israel is the closest ally of the United States in the Middle East. It gets more military support, more economic support and aid from the US every year than any other country, not just in the Middle East, but in the world, and yet Biden’s ability, Kamala Harris’s ability, Secretary of State Blinken’s ability, the US Administration’s ability to influence Israeli outcomes in terms of a negotiated settlement, a ceasefire, humanitarian aid, nature and scope of military operations has been exceptionally limited.
Iran and Hamas Blame Israel for Killing of Top Official and Vow to Strike Back
The deadly strike on Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran threatened to further inflame the region and derail negotiations aimed at reaching a cease-fire in Gaza.
The predawn killing of a top Hamas leader in Tehran on Wednesday left the entire Middle East on edge, bringing vows of revenge from Iran’s leaders and threatening to derail fragile negotiations for a Gaza cease-fire.
The Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, 62, a top negotiator in the cease-fire talks who had led the militant group’s political office in Qatar, was killed after he and other leaders of Iranian-backed militant groups had attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
Israeli leaders would not confirm or deny whether their country was behind the brazen breach of Iran’s defenses. But Iranian leaders and Hamas officials immediately blamed Israel and vowed to avenge the death of Mr. Haniyeh, heightening fears of a broader regional war.

19 July
Deadly drone attack hits Tel Aviv ahead of Bibi’s visit to Washington
(GZERO media) The Houthi militia in Yemen claimed responsibility for a drone attack in Tel Aviv early Friday that killed at least one person and wounded 10 others. The drone crashed into an apartment building not far from the US Embassy in Israel’s second-largest city.
This was the first time the Iran-backed group carried out a lethal attack in Israel – and it involved an Iran-made drone. The Israeli military is investigating how the drone evaded its defense systems. The drone was detected, but it wasn’t intercepted due to an “error,” said Israeli military spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari.
The war in Gaza has fueled major tensions between Israel and Tehran, as well as its proxies in the region. For months, there have been concerns that Israel could go to war in Lebanon with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Friday’s drone attack occurred not long after Israel announced it killed a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, and the fatal incident will likely raise further concerns that the war in Gaza risks spiraling into a much broader, regional conflict.

29 May
The Shallow Roots of Iran’s War With Israel
Beneath Tehran’s Extremism, a Lost History of Deep Iranian-Jewish Ties
By Ali M. Ansari, Professor of Iranian History, University of St. Andrews
(Foreign Affairs) … Iranian ambivalence about the war also has deeper social and cultural roots. Beneath the regime’s long-dominant rhetoric about a “Zionist occupying state” lies a more complex dynamic with Israel. In the pre-Islamic era in particular, successive Persian states enjoyed a surprisingly intimate connection to the Jewish people. For several decades of the twentieth century, Iran and Israel seemed to have more in common with each other than either country did with the Arab world. Nor did this affinity entirely end with the Islamic Revolution in 1979. One of the most important thinkers behind the revolution wrote a laudatory account of the young Jewish state, and until the early years of this century, Iranian leaders at times showed a surprisingly nuanced view of Israel’s role in the Middle East.
Today, this legacy is submerged by hard-liners on both sides, and the proxy conflict between Iran and Israel could still erupt into a catastrophic direct war. Yet the long history of Persian and Jewish coexistence suggests that the current geostrategic rivalry may be considerably more contingent than it appears. However great the enmity between the region’s arch-antagonists, their shared history offers alternatives that could, under different circumstances, be tapped in the future.

23 May
Heads of Iran-allied militant groups meet in Tehran
The “axis of resistance” brings together Iran’s regional allies in the fight against Israel, including the Palestinian movement Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Huthis and Iraqi Shiite armed groups.
Leaders of the Iran-led, so-called “axis of resistance”, including Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh, discussed the war in Gaza during a meeting in Tehran on the sidelines of president Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral, state media reported on May 23.
The “axis of resistance” brings together Iran’s regional allies in the fight against Israel, including the Palestinian movement Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Huthis and Iraqi Shiite armed groups.
The meeting was attended by Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s Qatar-based political bureau, as well as Hezbollah deputy Naim Qassem and Huthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam.
Haniyeh had also previously had an audience with Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iranian officials meanwhile included General Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as General Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force, the foreign operations branch of the guards.
Leaders of the Iran-led, so-called “axis of resistance”, including Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh, discussed the war in Gaza during a meeting in Tehran on the sidelines of president Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral, state media reported on May 23.
Iran’s Fars news agency said representatives of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and Iraqi groups were also present at the meeting.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei meets Haniyeh in Tehran, says elimination of Israel ‘feasible’
Iran’s supreme leader told Hamas’ top leader Ismail Haniyeh that the elimination of Israel was a divine promise and is feasible. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made the comments during a meeting with the acting President Mohammad Mokhber on Wednesday in Tehran.

25-26 April
Is an Anti-Iran Alliance Emerging in the Middle East?
The Limits of Cooperation Between Israel and the Arab States
By Dalia Dassa Kaye and Sanam Vakil
(Foreign Affairs) … To be sure, Israel’s future strategy against Iran may take regional considerations into greater account, given the unprecedented nature of April’s military exchanges. But the realities in the region that inhibit Arab-Israeli cooperation have not significantly changed. Even before Hamas’s October 7 attack and Israel’s subsequent war on Gaza, the Arab states that signed the 2020 Abraham Accords, embracing normalization with Israel, were growing frustrated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s support for expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank and his tolerance for his far-right ministers’ attempts to undermine the status quo in Jerusalem. A string of deadly attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinians in West Bank towns in the spring of 2023 further inflamed regional tensions. After Israel launched its military operations in Gaza in October, prompting waves of protests across the Middle East, Arab leaders became even more hesitant to openly back Israel, aware that open cooperation could hurt their domestic legitimacy.

The nuclear threats that loom over Iran and Israel
(WaPo) A volley of back-and-forth strikes between Israel and Iran, culminating with explosions in the Islamic Republic on Friday, added a nuclear edge to the regional fallout from the war in Gaza. Here, the world watched two powers with nuclear technology — one with not-so-secret weapons, the other with ambiguous arms ambitions — as they threatened to strike each other’s nuclear sites.
… More than half a century after their covert development began, Israel’s nuclear weapons are a fait accompli. Israel is the only nuclear-armed power in the Middle East — an open secret even if not acknowledged by the country nor governed by international agreements. Iran, meanwhile, does not possess nuclear weapons. However, its pursuit of nuclear technology, which it claims is not for military purposes, has left it internationally isolated.
Worryingly, norms appeared to be changing. Iran’s strike on Israel the weekend before had marked the first time it had struck the country from its soil. Last Thursday, an Iranian official warned that if Israel struck at their nuclear sites, they could reconsider their official stance on the development of nuclear weapons and potentially target Israeli nuclear facilities.

18-19 April
How Iran’s attack will force Israel to rethink its security
C. Uday Bhaskar
Tehran’s aerial strike and Hamas’ October 7 surprise attack are reminders that Tel Aviv’s deterrence capabilities are not infallible
Major powers must pursue diplomacy to ensure the region does not descend into greater turmoil and bloodshed
(SCMP) Given the tangled history and geopolitics of the West Asian region, Israeli security planners will have to develop an effective template that internalises the deterrence lapses book-ended by the October 7 and April 13 setbacks. Nuclear weapons do not deter determined terror groups, as we have learned from the events of September 11, the 2008 Mumbai attacks and cases of extremist violence in Russia.
Israel is now part of that group of nations, where the possession of WMD capabilities does not provide any failproof insurance against rival non-state entities taking recourse to terrorism or against states that enable and support their activities.
Given the sociopolitical choices Israel has made in relation to Palestine, Iran and the Arab world in general, the IDF will need to define a more appropriate form of deterrence against both state and non-state challenges to ensure credible security for Israeli citizens.
While Iran may be seen as a more abiding challenge for Tel Aviv, with hardliners demonising the US and Israel, the challenge posed by Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels is much more volatile. Both Israel and the region have been convulsed by the covert and direct actions of such proxies.
Israel is expected to respond militarily to the Iranian attack. At the time of writing, reports say a response may be “imminent”. Such a course of action will perhaps ensure the survival of the beleaguered government of Benjamin Netanyahu and also increase the probability of escalation – but the deterrence conundrum for Israel will remain.
With the war in Ukraine simmering and Gaza devastated, West Asia should not be allowed to slide into greater regional turmoil and bloodshed, leading to further disruption of the global economy with dire consequences for human security. The major powers that have the leverage with Iran and Israel must pursue quiet diplomacy with equitable firmness.
An Iran-Israel War?
(Project Syndicate) While the vast majority of the more than 300 drones and missiles were shot down by Israel and its partners – primarily the United States but also the United Kingdom and Jordan – the attack represented a grave escalation between the regional foes, raising fears of a broader Middle East conflagration.
The Middle East Needs a Ceasefire Now
Palestinian journalist Daoud Kuttab, however, sees a possible silver lining: “Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel could generate an equally unprecedented breakthrough for peace in the Middle East.” The first step must be for the United Nations Security Council to “pass a binding resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and across the region.”
The Urgency of Palestinian Statehood
The next step, argues former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans, is widespread international recognition of Palestinian statehood, with all the “legitimacy, leverage, and bargaining power” that this implies. Internationally recognized statehood would open the way for a “political solution that satisfies legitimate Palestinian aspirations,” which is in Israel’s own interest, as it seeks to exorcise the “specter of terrorism.”
Israel Must End the Gaza War
It is also in Israel’s interest to end its war in Gaza quickly, explains Dennis Ross, a former director of policy planning at the US State Department. Israel is already close to achieving the only strategic objective that matters – demilitarizing Gaza and setting the stage for an alternative to rule by Hamas – and continuing the war will almost certainly weaken support for Israel, including in the US. And, as Iran’s recent attack demonstrated anything, Israel needs the US.
The Gaza War Goes Global
But having the US on its side may not be enough. Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer notes that Iran’s strike on Israel highlights the growing willingness and ability of new and emerging powers to challenge the West. In any transition away from the US-led world order, Iran’s theocratic regime may well be “among the big winners.”
Israel’s limited strike on Iran appears designed to avoid escalation
(WaPo) Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran on Friday appears to have been very limited in scope and designed to avoid turning the long-running shadow war between the two Middle East rivals into a full-blown conflagration, according to analysts and officials.
The Israeli military carried out the strikes against the central province of Isfahan and possibly Tabriz early Friday. Iranian authorities almost immediately said that no damage was caused and that reported explosions were just antiaircraft measures.
With both sides Friday seeking to downplay the strike, the chances of immediate escalation between the two rivals appeared to be easing, analysts said. (AP) Israel, Iran play down apparent Israeli strike. The muted responses could calm tensions — for now

The unspoken story of why Israel didn’t clobber Iran
By David Ignatius
Here’s my take: Israel is behaving like the leader of a regional coalition against Iran. In its measured response, it appeared to be weighing the interests of its allies in this coalition — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan — which all provided quiet help in last weekend’s shoot-down. It’s playing the long game, in other words.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/19/israel-iran-retaliate-diplomacy/
Iran and Israel’s War Comes Out of the Shadows
Why Tehran’s Hard-Liners Chose to Escalate
By Afshon Ostovar, an Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and the author of the forthcoming Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East.
(Foreign Affairs) …the operation revealed the ascendance of the IRGC’s hawks in Tehran and the depth of their desire to take Israel head-on.
… The Iranian-Israeli conflict has played out mostly in the shadows of the Middle East’s larger wars. Iran’s principal mode of waging this fight has been to supply advanced weaponry—especially missiles and drones—to militant groups hostile to Israel in the Gaza Strip and in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen … Tehran wants to destabilize Israel by ensnaring it in persistent conflict and surrounding it with enemies that it cannot easily defeat through military action.
… As long as Iran continues to press in its strategy of encircling Israel, and funneling advanced weapons to militant proxies that threaten Israeli population centers, Israel will be compelled to pursue its countervailing campaign against Iran. The longer that dynamic continues, the more likely open warfare between the two countries becomes. Such a war could not be fought by Iran and Israel in isolation. It would invariably draw in the United States, Iran’s regional proxies, and perhaps even neighboring states. It would range across a large swath of the region and, because of the many actors involved, would probably not be short. In truth, whether in a week, a year, or another decade, an open war between Iran and Israel in some form is all but inevitable. Indeed, the region may already be on the precipice, awaiting the plunge.

Israel gave US last-minute warning about drone attack on Iran, Italian foreign minister says at G7
(AP) — The United States told the Group of Seven foreign ministers on Friday that it received “last minute” information from Israel about a drone action in Iran, but didn’t participate in the apparent attack, officials said.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who chaired the meeting of ministers of industrialized countries, said the United States provided the information at a Friday morning session that was changed at the last minute to address the suspected attack.

Iran, Israel and What Comes Next
“If one missile lands in the wrong spot, we’re in a different ballgame”
Mark Leon Goldberg
(Global Dispatches) Late Thursday night, Israel confirmed a strike in Iran, with media reports indicating a military airbase in Isfahan was targeted by drones. The base is near an Iranian nuclear facility, but there is no indication that the nuclear facility was impacted by this attack, nor was the intended target. The damage seems limited and Iran seems to be playing down the incident in state media.
Still, we are another rung up the ladder of escalation. If Israel and Iran keep climbing, there may be an all out war — and potentially drag the United States deeper into conflict in the Middle East.

Israeli Officials Claim Strikes on Iran
(NYT) Senior Iranian officials reported overnight blasts at a military base near the city of Isfahan. The explosions came after Israel vowed retaliation for Iran’s first-ever direct strike on the country.
The Israeli military struck Iran early on Friday, according to two Israeli defense officials, in what appeared to be Israel’s first military response to Iran’s attack on Israel five days earlier.
Three Iranian officials confirmed that a strike had hit a military air base near the city of Isfahan, in central Iran, early on Friday, but did not say which country had mounted the attack. Fars News, an Iranian news agency affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, said that explosions were heard near Isfahan’s civilian airport, adding that the cause of the blasts was not immediately clear.

16 April
Iran says next attack could be ‘much bigger’
(CNN) On Sunday, Iran said a “new equation” in its adversarial relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu decide on a tit-for-tat attack.
“We have decided to create a new equation, which is that if from now on the Zionist regime attacks our interests, assets, personalities, and citizens, anywhere, and at any point we will retaliate against them,” the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami told Iranian state TV. The “Zionist regime” is a term Iran uses to refer to Israel.
Earlier, Sardar Bagheri, the Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, had said: “If the Zionist regime responds, our next operation will be much bigger.”
Iran’s attacks targeted the Israeli airbase from which, it said, the strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus was launched. Iranian ballistic missiles that reached Israel fell on the airbase in southern Israel, and caused only light structural damage, Hagari said.
Bagheri said that from Iran’s perspective, the military operation against Israel “has concluded.” But he emphasized that Iranian armed forces remain on high alert and are prepared to “act if necessary,” according to an interview on state IRINN TV on Sunday.

14-15 April

Why did Iran attack Israel? What to know about the strikes, U.S. response.
By Niha Masih, Jennifer Hassan and Maham Javaid
(WaPo) Iran launched a wave of missiles and drones toward Israel late Saturday as regional tensions continued to mount over the war in Gaza. President Biden condemned the attack and spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reiterate the United States’ “ironclad” commitment to Israeli security, the White House said. Other allies including Germany, Canada, France and Britain reaffirmed their support for Israel in the wake of the attack while expressing fears that Tehran’s assault could further destabilize the Middle East.
Iranian media said the attack was in retaliation for an Israeli strike this month on an Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria, which killed members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including senior commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi.

Israel weighs strike on Iran to ‘send a message’ while preserving alliance
(WaPo) Israel’s war cabinet deliberated Monday how to respond to Iran’s unprecedented aerial assault without rankling allies and squandering an opportunity to build an international alliance against Tehran.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked the Israel Defense Forces to provide a target list, according to an official familiar with high-level discussions, who said Israel is mulling retaliation that would “send a message” but not cause casualties.
Iran strikes Israel. How will Netanyahu respond?
Tasha Kheiriddin
(GZERO media) The slow-motion nature of the attack, which gave Israel and its allies hours to prepare, led some analysts to call itmore symbolic than serious. However, it allowed Iran to gauge Israel’s capabilities, see who would come to the Jewish state’s aid, and learn how other regional powers and groups would respond to an Iranian barrage.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense, according to Israeli military intelligence. The two monarchies both have close ties to the US, Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is no love lost between Iran’s Shi’a fundamentalist government and the Saudi Sunni monarchy and religious authorities.
But according to Masoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, “… if tonight’s attacks escalate into a wider Israel-Iran conflict, regional actors perceived as defenders of Israel may find themselves targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration.”
“Israel is currently weighing options. Strikes on Iran directly are possible, but it appears that the war cabinet is divided over how to respond,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. “Bombing Iran in response to Saturday’s attack would likely escalate the confrontation and compel Iran to attack again – this time with less warning and stage-managing.”
Iran has warned that attacks by its allies won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends – but that ending is still nowhere in sight. On Sunday, Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a deal presented a week ago by mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
According to Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, the Iranian attack is “going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. [This] doesn’t mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally,” he says, “And there’s also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near future.”

Iran is trying to create a new normal with its attack. Here’s how Israel and the US should respond.
By William F. Wechsler, Senior director of Middle East Programs and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations and combatting terrorism
While Hamas might be desperate for a wider conflagration, its patron Iran is certainly quite satisfied by the post-October 7 status quo, from which it benefits immensely.
(Atlantic Council) Iran’s supreme leader took his time to consider how and where to respond to Israel’s strike in Damascus on April 1. The United States and Israel should similarly take time to consider what he likely intended to accomplish with this weekend’s retaliation and what messages he was trying to send.
Most immediately, Tehran clearly intended to deter Israel from once again targeting its diplomatic facilities—locations that it previously thought were safe enough to use for military purposes. Israel’s longstanding “war between the wars” has put Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps officers at risk when operating near Israel’s borders, so Tehran is undoubtedly loath to see its remaining sanctuaries become an accepted part of the battlefield.
Operationally, Iran sent an unmistakable signal that it wanted to avoid a further escalation that could spark a truly regional war. It chose long-range attacks that could be readily thwarted by known Israeli defenses and pointedly did not target any US facilities. It did this all while issuing extraordinary statements (in English) that “the matter can be deemed concluded” and that “U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!” (emphasis in the original).
While Hamas might be desperate for a wider conflagration, its patron Iran is certainly quite satisfied by the post-October 7 status quo, from which it benefits immensely. For many people across the region, awash with images of Palestinian suffering, their perceptions of Iran have never been more positive, as it alone is “standing up” to Israel—previously through its proxies and now directly as well.

What does Israel want to do after Iran’s drone and missile attacks?
Analysts look at the reasons behind Israel’s attack on Iran’s consulate, which triggered Iran’s overnight barrage on Israel.
(Al Jazeera) Laying the foundation on April 1?
In determining how Israel may respond to the overnight attack, analysts have focused on Israel’s own attack on the Iranian consulate on April 1.
That strike, which killed two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals and five officers, was carried out with scant regard to Israel’s allies, who were only notified shortly ahead of the attack, according to at least one analyst Al Jazeera spoke to.
Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at SWP Berlin, outlined two scenarios, both resting upon the motivations behind the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate.
In the first scenario, the Israeli strike occurred with little or no thought given to the consequences. In the second, the strike was a deliberate attempt to draw Iran into regional war and shift US and Western focus away from Israel’s war on Gaza and towards the regional bogeyman, Iran.
In both scenarios, US involvement would be critical.
Despite its status as a regional superpower, Israel – overstretched by six months of war on Gaza – would stand little chance against Iran’s standing army of at least 580,000, supplemented by some 200,000 trained reserve personnel, divided among the army and the IRGC.
“Netanyahu’s plan is clear, to distract attention from the war in Gaza and to drag the US and other Western allies back into the Middle East,” Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said.
“Given the close relationship between Israel and the US and Israel’s dependency on US aid, Israel should have informed the US that it was planning to attack the Iranian consulate building where the IRGC is based.
“By not doing so, Israel crossed a red line. Israel’s motives … need to be questioned. An attack on a foreign consulate constitutes a strike on foreign soil under international law, and it is clear that Netanyahu knew he was crossing the line and that Iran would respond with force,” she said.

11-13 April
April 13: IDF says Iran fired 200 missiles and drones; most intercepted; minor damage at IDF base
(Times of Israel) Unprecedented assault triggered sirens nationwide, booms of interceptions IAF, US, UK, Jordan intercepted projectiles
Here’s how Iran’s strike on Israel has unfolded
The U.S. has downed some of the incoming drones.
(Politico) Iran has made good on its threat to retaliate against a deadly strike on its consulate in Syria with a large aerial strike against Israel on Saturday.
It is important to know that these attacks, unlike others in the past, are explicitly and directly coming from the Iranian government and its military. Iranian-backed proxies, including Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Hamas, have sparred with Israeli forces on and off for years, and Hezbollah has regularly fired rockets at Israeli targets since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October.
Iranian-backed proxies, including Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Hezbollah, have launched their own coinciding strikes at Israel.
Iran said around 6 p.m. EST that it concluded its military action, according to an X post from Tehran’s mission to the United Nations.
Foreign Affairs: On Friday, Israel was bracing for an attack by Iran or its proxies after Tehran vowed to retaliate for an April 1 Israeli airstrike on Syria in which seven members of the Revolutionary Guards including two generals were killed, sparking fears that an already volatile climate in the Middle East, with Israel and Hamas in Gaza at war, could quickly spiral further. Although the tit-for-tat strikes are the latest in a long-running shadow war between the two countries, the risk for miscalculation and escalation continue to grow.
Iran’s IRGC seizes ‘Israeli-linked’ ship near Strait of Hormuz
IRGC forces conducted an operation via helicopter to take control of the commercial vessel, state media reports.
12 April
Iran warns U.S. to stay out of fight with Israel or face attack on troops
(Axios)  Why it matters: The U.S. and Israel are preparing for Iran to retaliate against Israel for an airstrike that killed a top Iranian general in Damascus last week.
The Iranian supreme leader has threatened “punishment” for Israel but through private channels Iran has signaled it would be limited.

11 April
Will Iran attack Israel?
(GZERO media) There are rising concerns over how Iran will retaliate to a recent Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, that killed several top Iranian commanders and enraged Tehran. US President Joe Biden on Wednesday warned that Iran is threatening a “significant attack” against Israel, and he promised Washington’s “ironclad” support to the Jewish state.

1 April
Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Syria killed two generals, Iranian officials say
(AP) — An Israeli airstrike that demolished Iran’s consulate in Syria on Monday killed Gen. Ali Reza Zahdi, who led the elite Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria until 2016, according to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. It also killed Zahdi’s deputy, Gen Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi, and five other officers, according to Syrian and Iranian officials. The strike appeared to signify an escalation of Israel’s targeting of military officials from Iran, which provides money and weapons to Hamas and other militants responsible for the Oct. 7 attack against Israel.