Wednesday Night #2221

It is a week of waiting for other shoes to drop.
Topping the list is Israel and the Middle East
While many may have expected Israel to confront Iran on the anniversary of 7 October, that did not happen. Instead, there have been renewed attacks on Gaza and Lebanon
John Buchanan recommends Israel’s war against Hezbollah – a view from Beirut
The Atlantic’s Kim Ghattas, who is a friend of Joumane and John, tells Fareed Zakaria about Israel’s intense bombardment of Beirut and why she thinks militant groups like Hezbollah cannot be defeated without a real political alternative.
A Dangerous Dance for Israel and Iran
Abbas Milani sees both countries walking a tightrope to maintain deterrence without provoking a full-blown war.

Biden and Netanyahu Speak for the First Time in Months as Mideast Crisis Deepens …a terse account of the conversation issued by the White House hours later said Mr. Biden “condemned unequivocally Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on Oct. 1,” but made no reference to discussions on how to respond — which was the purpose of the call. Does the explanation lie in these reported divisions?
Netanyahu-Gallant rivalry complicates Israeli response to Iran attack
Divisions inside the Israeli government, as well as between Netanyahu and the White House, are converging at a critical moment for the Middle East.

The Mideast War Threatens Harris in Michigan as Arab Voters Reject Her
A year after the Oct. 7 attacks, Kamala Harris faces deepening Democratic fractures in a crucial state. Interviews suggest that her support from Muslim and Arab Americans is drying up.

Natural disasters in the guise of hurricanes -with inevitable political consequences- are top of the mind in the U.S.
In the wake of Hurricane Helene, rescue attempts are hampered by the inexperience of the local authorities and victims in areas that were never identified as vulnerable. Adding to the problems is the misinformation spread deliberately by Donald Trump, Elon Musk and their allies. (See Long reads below) Meanwhile, Milton menaces southwest Florida with a destructive tornado outbreak. Latest news is that Milton has been downgraded to category 3, still a destructive force.
FEMA capabilities are stretched as are those of local authorities. Of additional -albeit not humanitarian concern- how will the devastation affect facilities and communications for the election? And how will rescue efforts affect voters’ attitudes in a crucial swing state? And possibly in Florida?

SCOTUS is back in session with a 6-3 conservative majority
How the Supreme Court could reshape the 2024 race — again
From mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania to hurricane accommodations in North Carolina, here are the legal issues to watch.

A fair fight in Georgia (updated)
This presidential election can go three ways: Harris wins, Trump wins, or organized mischief by Trumpists breaks the electoral system and the country.
In Georgia, right now, we have a foretaste of the chaos option. If we understand what is going wrong there, we can do something about it.
What the campaign feels like in Pennsylvania
In the 2024 presidential race, there are swing states and then there is Pennsylvania. This year it looms as the essential battleground — it’s the single biggest trove of electoral votes (19) that is in play — and the state stands to blow up the electoral strategy of the campaign that loses it in November.
It’s why the Trump and Harris campaigns have carpet-bombed Pennsylvania with ads, why the candidates have spent so much time stumping there — and why Donald Trump had rallies scheduled in Scranton and Reading today, his second visit to the state in five days.

-Best newsletter click bait of the week- Deficit Attention Disorder
Ian Bremmer breaks down the economic consequences of America’s next presidential choice

Democracy North African style
Tunisia’s president wins landslide second term after cracking down on opponents
Kais Saied secured 90.7% of the vote in election on a turnout of just 27.7%, after detaining rival Ayachi Zamme

It’s Nobel time again
Leading the pack of announcements, the Prize in Physics goes to John J. Hopfield, of Princeton and Geoffrey E. Hinton, University of Toronto,“for foundational discoveries and inventions that enable machine learning with artificial neural networks”.
Geoffrey Hinton, who warned of AI’s dangers, co-wins Nobel Prize in Physics
We wonder what Dr. Hinton, who left his position at Google last year so he could speak more freely about artificial intelligence, a field he helped to pioneer and is increasingly critical of, will say about the news that Google might get broken up after its big antitrust loss
David Baker, University of Washington in Seattle, Demis Hassabis and John Jumper, Google DeepMind, a British-American artificial intelligence research laboratory, who discovered powerful techniques to predict and even design novel proteins — the building blocks of life — were awarded the Nobel Prize in chemistry . Their work used advanced technologies, including machine learning, and holds the potential to transform how new drugs are made.

We have been remiss in failing to acknowledge our great appreciation of former (once and future?) Mayor Peter Trent‘s contributions to the Gazette’s opinion columns, most recently The furry and the feathered are at odds in a Westmount sanctuary
How can we ensure dogs do not degrade Summit Woods’ primary and legal function as a protected habitat for birds and plants all year round? If not the wisdom of Solomon, Peter offers a well reasoned argument in the tradition of thoughtful, civil discourse – and who can resist ‘tiptoeing through the trillia’?

Things Canadian
We are not always consumed by Quebec politics, it is often entertaining to divert our gaze westward
B.C. leaders debate health care, vaccines — and paper straws
Debate featured a series of polarizing topics, as party leaders faced tough questions ahead of Oct. 19 vote
Meanwhile, The Guardian applauds British Columbia’s blueprint for decolonisation – ‘It’s path-breaking’
First Nations are negotiating with government on sharing crucial decisions over forestry, mining and construction
Let’s pay more attention to this
It is comforting to know that if the governing federal party offers little if any moral or legal support to the Anglo population of Quebec, we do have a friend in official languages commissioner Raymond Théberge, who says Quebec’s English-speaking community is often misunderstood and faces significant obstacles. In a report published Wednesday, he said “For several years, the English-speaking minority in Quebec has been facing challenges that are threatening its vitality,” . Of course, there is no reason to believe that the Fed Libs will read his report. No doubt it will languish in the PMO and/or the PCO.
See also Building Bridges: Perceptions and realities about the English-speaking communities of Quebec and their relationship with French in Quebec and bilingualism in Canada (19 June)
Paul Wells: Mon premier livre en français
Justin Trudeau dans les câbles: Gouverner quand ça va mal, en kiosque dès la fin octobre
L’idée vient de Chantal Hébert. En mai, lors de la parution de mon dernier livre, Justin Trudeau on the Ropes: Governing in Troubled Times, ma collègue a exprimé, sur les ondes d’ICI Première, le souhait que ce court essai d’une centaine de pages paraisse en français.
Andrew Caddell writes that it is time for Canada’s special representative on combatting Islamophobia, Amira Elghawaby to step down. It is hard to disagree with his argument.
“Most recently, she wrote Canadian university administrators to say—according to a Canadian Press report—that “since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023, a dangerous climate has arisen on campuses.” She suggested the way to ease tensions would be hiring more professors of Muslim, Arab, and Palestinian origin. Quebec’s Higher Education Minister Pascale Déry said Elghawaby should “mind her own business,” stating hiring professors based on religion goes against Quebec’s principles of secularism in Bill 21, and was a federal incursion into provincial jurisdiction.
While I consider Bill 21 anathema, have denounced Quebec nationalism, and support affirmative action, this was not the way to go about it. Even The Suburban newspaper in Montreal—no friend of the Legault government—wrote: “Elghawaby’s views are divisive and inflammatory.”

Hard to imagine our world without an ever-present, all-knowing Google
Google might get broken up after its big antitrust loss
The DOJ is considering “behavioral and structural remedies” to curtail Google’s search dominance

Varia
According to Margaret Trudeau, she once asked PET whether he dreamed in color and he responded “that is the most ridiculous question…” . His skepticism was not justified; science explores the question.
Do you dream in color or black and white? Here’s what the science says.
The tendency to dream in gray scale or color may be influenced in part by age and when people grew up.
Singapore Ends 181 Years of Horse Racing to Make Way for Homes
The site of more than 120 hectares (300 acres) is to be bulldozed for new public and private homes as the nation, smaller than New York City, tries to accommodate a growing population that crossed six million this year. The government has said that this is necessary to ensure “there is sufficient land for future generations.” After some preparation work, the site must be returned by early 2027.

Long reads
Is FEMA messing up? An expert weighs in.
Every disaster starts and ends locally, so every disaster response starts at the local level, and it ends at the local level. A lot of people don’t realize that. They think immediately of FEMA. FEMA has the purse strings, they help pay for a lot of this.
But the response is local. It goes to the state if locals can’t handle it. The state then does an emergency declaration to release additional funds. If it’s going to be more than they can handle, they go to their FEMA region. That then goes up to FEMA national, and then to the president for an emergency declaration or disaster declaration depending on which is needed.
October 6, 2024 Heather Cox Richardson focuses on the Trump team’s disinformation campaign – not only the CNN headline story by fact checker Daniel Dale, titled “Six days of Trump lies about the Hurricane Helene response”, but “a well-documented strategy to overturn democracy by using modern media to create a false political world. Voters begin to base their political decisions on that fake image, rather than on reality, and are manipulated into giving up control of their government to an authoritarian.”
A bipartisan Iran strategy for the next US administration—and beyond
The Atlantic Council’s Iran Strategy Project brought together a bipartisan, ideologically diverse group of experts and former senior officials to develop a holistic US policy toward the Islamic Republic of Iran for the next four years, regardless of who sits in the Oval Office. This report is the result of nearly two years of work by the project’s advisory committee, working group, contributors, and staff.
Bringing Politics Back In: The Neglected Explanation of the Oct. 7 Surprise Attack
Janice Gross Stein
Civil-military relations are a neglected dimension in the explanation of surprise. … There are no technical or organizational fixes to the political roots of surprise. In this case, surprise can best be explained as a political as well as a psychological and organizational failure.
The Phony Populism of Trump and Musk
Around the world, fantastically wealthy people are hoodwinking ordinary voters, warning that dark forces—always an indistinct “they” and “them”—are conspiring to take away their rights and turn their nation into an immense ghetto full of undesirables (who are almost always racial minorities or immigrants or, in the ideal narrative, both).
The British writer Martin Wolf calls this “pluto-populism,” a brash attempt by people at the top of the financial and social pyramid to stay afloat by capering as ostensibly anti-establishment, pro-worker candidates.