Wednesday Night #2223

The news from the U.S. is not encouraging. We urge you to read Bret Stephens: There’s One Main Culprit if Donald Trump Wins (See Long reads below) whose analysis seems to us to be depressingly accurate. Perhaps we should seek consolation from James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win. Other consideration – as Trump increasingly falters mentally, are we paying enough attention to JD Vance who looks a lot more dangerous than his running mate.
Harris and Trump locked in dead heat in seven-state poll, with some voters still deciding
Former president Donald Trump shows strength in Arizona while Vice President Kamala Harris runs strongest in Georgia, according to a Post-Schar School survey.
The state-by-state breakdown: Arizona: Trump +3 … Georgia: Harris +4 … Michigan: Harris +2 … Nevada: tied at 48% … North Carolina: Trump +3 … Pennsylvania: Harris +2 … Wisconsin: Harris +3.
Elon Musk, Trump and MAGA
(WaPo) Elon Musk’s daily giveaway of million-dollar checks to swing-state voters is generating the buzz he no doubt hoped for. But Mr. Musk’s oversize checks are distracting from a less-visible campaign the world’s richest man is conducting: laying the groundwork to cast doubt on the election results if his favored candidate, former president Donald Trump, loses.
Finally! Justice Department Warns Musk That His $1 Million Giveaway Might Be Illegal
Elon Musk’s super PAC, which supports Donald Trump’s presidential bid, is giving cash prizes to registered voters who sign a petition. ‘Might Be illegal’? – it is obvious bribery.
Bill Gates Privately Says He Has Backed Harris With $50 Million Donation Mr. Gates said in a statement to The Times that “this election is different,” reflecting a significant change in his political strategy.
Jeff Jackson writes that his campaign [for AG of North Carolina] whirlwind hits top speed. His tone is somewhere between exhilarated and exhausted.

We had expected to spend time on the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, but they are receiving little attention as the Event du jour is the Russia-hosted BRICS Summit.. Perhaps we should wait for a week or two until the pundits (including our OWN) have digested all reports and releases.
Brics summit vs IMF-World Bank annual meetings
So far, the only media outlet to draw attention to this week’s important rival international meetings is the South China Morning Post(SCMP): Brics summit vs IMF-World Bank meetings: the global divide is clear The West and its institutions are deluded if they think ignoring the Global South’s demands and preserving the status quo will work.
Putin plays host to 36 world leaders at Brics summit in Russia
West infuriated as UN secretary general accepts invitation to meeting of countries including China, India and Iran
Putin Brings Together Economies He Hopes Will Eclipse the West
The Russian leader hopes to use the meeting of the so-called BRICS group, which includes China and India, as a counterweight to the West.

2024 IMF/World Bank Group Annual Meetings
Monday, October 21 to Saturday, October 26

US presidential election looms over IMF and World Bank annual meetings
Global finance leaders face a major uncertainty as they meet in Washington: Who will win the U.S. presidential election and shape the policies of the world’s biggest economy?
The world’s financial leaders are descending on Washington this week for the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, but one of the most important issues for the future of the global economy won’t be on the official agenda.
While China’s economy, debt relief, and slowing inflation will all be at the top of the agenda for ministers, what everyone wants to talk about is the US election. They have good reason. The outcome will determine the trajectory on US trade policy and tariffs in the world’s largest economy and may impact who is selected as the next Federal Reserve chair (Jay Powell’s term is up in 2026). It will also tell the world how the United States plans to engage—or not—in international economic collaboration over the next four years.
There is a reason why the US Treasury’s Jay Shambaugh has been arguing (as he did at the Atlantic Council last week) that the world needs the Bretton Woods institutions—and that without them, there would be a giant “IMF-shaped vacuum” in the global economy. He’s concerned that as the institutions mark their eightieth birthday, many around the world have forgotten why they were created in the first place.

Nobel Laureates Help Solve the Inequality Puzzle
While even the world’s poorest economies have become richer in recent decades, they have continued to lag far behind their higher-income counterparts – and the gap is not getting any smaller. According to this year’s Nobel Prize-winning economists, institutions are a key reason why. From Ukraine’s reconstruction to the regulation of artificial intelligence, the implications are as consequential as they are far-reaching.

Blinken Pursues Regional Tour as Mideast Conflict Deepens
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sought to ease tensions on a visit to Israel, followed by a meeting with the Saudi crown prince in Riyadh.
Israel is pressing on with its military campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza. And, of course, Israel pounds Beirut in ‘violent night’ of attacks on south suburbs. Our thoughts are with Joumane, waiting anxiously in London with John.

Spiraling Conflict in Lebanon ‘Out of Control’
(NYT) A top U.S. official said on Monday that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah had “escalated out of control,” and called for the revival of a United Nations resolution that, if enforced fully, could pull the region back from the brink amid Israel’s widening war in Lebanon.
‘Utter ruin’: Gaza economy would take 350 years to return to pre-conflict level, UN says
Report says ‘intense military operations in Gaza have left unprecedented humanitarian, environmental and social catastrophe’
In a report on the economic costs of the war prepared by its trade and development wing (Unctad), the UN said the fighting since Hamas killed more than 1,000 Israelis on 7 October last year had devastated the remnants of Gaza’s economy and infrastructure.
The report, presented to last month’s UN general assembly, said economic activity across Gaza – which had been weak before the war – had ground to a halt, apart from minimum humanitarian health and food services provided under conditions of severe water, fuel and electricity shortages, and significant access constraints.
Construction output was down by 96%, agriculture output by 93%, manufacturing by 92% and services sector output by 76%. Meanwhile, unemployment reached 81.7% in the first quarter of 2024, a rate the UN said was likely to worsen or persist for as long as the military operation continued.

While playing genial host to BRICS leaders with one hand, with the other Vladimir Putin pursues his war against Ukraine as ruthlessly as possible. In the latest development, US confirms North Korea has sent 3,000 troops to Russia for training and possible Ukraine combat
The deployment raises the potential for the North Koreans to join Russian forces in Ukraine and suggests expanded military ties between the two nations as Moscow seeks weapons and troops to gain ground in a grinding war that has stalemated after more than two years. South Korean Intel Reveals Date Kim’s Soldiers Will Join Putin’s War South Korea’s top spy agency, which briefed legislators during a closed-door session of the parliament’s intelligence committee, said it expects the troop count to reach 10,000 by December, Yonhap News Agency reported.
At least, the White House has announced that the Group of Seven (G7) will offer Ukraine a $50bn loan backed by interests accrued on Russian government assets frozen by the political and economic group of wealthy nations.

“Patriot,” Alexei Navalny’s posthumous memoir published on Tuesday [22 October], eight months after his death at age 47 in an Arctic penal colony.

And in Canada
Trudeau prevails
Trudeau says Liberals ‘strong and united’ despite caucus dissent
It’s unclear exactly how many MPs are part of the effort to oust him, though sources say it’s at least twenty, largely from Atlantic Canada and southwestern Ontario.
The Bank of Canada delivered an interest rate cut of half a percentage point on Wednesday, focusing now on boosting the Canadian economy amid signs inflation is well under control. Since the previous interest rate cut in September, inflation has not only returned to the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target but even dropped below it to 1.6 per cent in the most recent reading.
Susan Holt leads Liberals to majority, Blaine Higgs loses seat
First woman to win premier’s job in New Brunswick history
While in B.C.: A close election, a distant resolution
British Columbians face weeks of process and political manoeuvring before they will learn who their government will be, after Saturday’s election results revealed an intractably divided province. But the process of finding consensus in a province in which the popular vote was divided by the two main parties by only one percentage point will take much, much longer.
Just 20 votes in this riding separate NDP, Conservatives in B.C.
Result in Juan de Fuca-Malahat on knife edge before mail-in, absentee ballots counted — and possible recount

We applaud Sauvé alumnus Jonathan Sas (Leslie) and his co-authors of We are progressive Jews who have been let down by our community leaders (Toronto Star Opinion)
He writes: “For the past year, the community organizations that claim to speak for me have demanded I ignore the testimony of my own eyes.
“Like so many progressive Jews, I have been whipsawed between the images of buildings being levelled, children crushed, families burned in tents, blindfolded civilians being marched at gunpoint… and full throated defense and even joyful celebration of the violence and destruction in Gaza by our leadership.
As we write in the piece, antisemitism has been dangerously emboldened. We can’t allow that scourge to provide cover for the dehumanization of Palestinians and its lethal consequences.”

Tristan Brand will be in Montreal October 31st through November 5th. He has 5 spots available for portrait sessions ($200 per session). Contact by text 514-999-0666.

Events
From Chris Neal
Thursday, 7 November
5:30 p.m.
Launch of My Life in Politics, a memoir by former Foreign Affairs Minister Lloyd Axworthy
Maison du développement durable,
50 St-Catherine Street West
Please register at the link below.
https://mailchi.mp/canada.hi.org/lloydbook

Long reads
Exceedingly uncomfortable truths
Bret Stephens: There’s One Main Culprit if Donald Trump Wins
the main culprit: the way in which leading liberal voices in government, academia and media practice politics today
The Bretton Woods Institutions at 80: Towards A Bigger, Better and More Inclusive Global Economic Governance Architecture – Boston University Global Development Policy Center
The World Bank-IMF annual meetings mull how to solve a debt crisis
(Devex) Leaders at the meetings are deliberating over how to resolve the debt situation — but must first decide what they actually want to solve. Plus, some optimism for climate finance from [Barbados Prime Minister] Mia Mottley, and calls for the superrich to pay more taxes.
The Sun Belt path matters more than you think
Population trends and Electoral College votes
Brics’ path to a fairer global system starts at home
For Brics nations to secure global reforms, they must build effective institutions, protect property rights and strengthen the rule of law
Research by Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson – this year’s Nobel laureates in economics – emphasises that inclusive institutions and strong rule of law are fundamental to sustained growth.
Heather Cox Richardson October 22, 2024
Former president Trump’s closing economic argument for the American people is that putting a high tariff wall around the country will bring in so much foreign money that it will fund domestic programs and bring down the deficit, enabling massive tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s closing economic argument is that the government should invest in the middle class by permitting Medicare to pay for in-home health aides for the elderly, cutting taxes for small businesses and families, and passing a federal law against price gouging for groceries during emergencies.
Brilliant analysis by the Atlantic’s Tom Nichols leads to depressing conclusion
Trump’s Depravity Will Not Cost Him This Election
For millions of the GOP faithful, Trump’s daily attempts to breach new frontiers of hideousness are not offensive but reassuring. They want Trump to be awful—precisely because the people they view as their political foes will be so appalled if he wins.