U.S. International relations and foreign policy April 2024-

US election: How will results affect wars in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan?
Several wars raging around the globe could escalate or peter out based on the stance of the next US president.
(Al Jazeera) As leader of the foremost superpower and so-called “world police”, whoever sits in the United States’s White House – and the decisions they make – can have a huge effect on the course of conflicts around the world.
Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Sudan’s civil war have collectively seen hundreds of thousands killed and millions displaced. Those conflicts could worsen or end, based on Washington’s stance.

14 October
Brookings event:
The future of America’s international alliances and partnerships: What’s at stake in the 2024 election
The United States is at a critical juncture for its foreign policy. As U.S. policymakers confront long-term strategic competition with China, major wars in Europe and the Middle East are unfolding. How the next U.S. administration and Congress address these key challenges will define America’s global leadership role for decades to come. How should they navigate this complex landscape? Do existing foreign policy frameworks need reevaluation? Are the networks of alliances and partnerships delivering as intended? What military footprint best serves American interests in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East?

8 October
A bipartisan Iran strategy for the next US administration—and beyond
The Atlantic Council’s Iran Strategy Project brought together a bipartisan, ideologically diverse group of experts and former senior officials to develop a holistic US policy toward the Islamic Republic of Iran for the next four years, regardless of who sits in the Oval Office. This report is the result of nearly two years of work by the project’s advisory committee, working group, contributors, and staff.
The United States needs a bipartisan strategy toward Iran that can be maintained across several administrations, one that works patiently and resolutely to counter Iran’s efforts to dominate the Middle East, drive the United States out, destroy Israel, and threaten Arab allies.
Pressure to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and to halt its malign regional influence is crucial—but won’t work absent a strategic goal of new negotiations to address both challenges simultaneously.
The United States must also counter Iran’s hostage taking, assassinations, and cyber and election meddling by triggering automatic penalties and responses in lockstep with allies.
The Diagnosis
The wild swings in US policy toward Iran over the last decade have directly helped speed Iran’s malign influence in the Middle East and significant progress toward a nuclear weapon.
Iran is a deeply ideological regime unlikely to change its fundamental outlook on the world. But the geostrategic context has changed over the last two decades: Iran’s foreign ties are now so bolstered and buoyed, particularly by China, that isolating Tehran is far more difficult than ever before. These circumstances demand a bipartisan, long-term strategy that can span administrations.
The weapons, capabilities, and finances of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran’s other proxies have benefited from sanctions evasion and weak enforcement, allowing Tehran to funnel probably hundreds of millions of dollars to its proxy militias. Illicit oil sales to China have earned the regime around eighty billion dollars.
Iran has advanced close to the nuclear-weapon threshold and has come to believe it can defy international warnings regarding its nuclear activities with impunity.

Heather Cox Richardson September 24, 2024
This morning, President Joe Biden spoke to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. …in his final speech before the body, Biden offered optimism.
– “Every age faces its challenges,” Biden said. “I saw it as a young man. I see it today. But we are stronger than we think. We’re stronger together than alone. And what the people call ‘impossible’ is just an illusion. [As] Nelson Mandela taught us…: ‘It always seems impossible until it’s done.’”
Ishaan Tharoor: Biden walks off the U.N. stage, leaving behind ‘purgatory’
In his last speech from the dais of the U.N. General Assembly, Biden highlighted his efforts to resolve the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Others remain skeptical.
Biden assumed the role of an elder statesman shuffling off the world stage, offering wisdom and perspective to the assembled heads of state. He wistfully summoned “the remarkable sweep of history” that he’s experienced during more than a half-century in political life — the bloodshed of the Vietnam War, the racism of South Africa’s apartheid regime, the fall of the Soviet Union, the turbulence that followed the attacks of 9/11. “Things can get better,” Biden said, urging his counterparts not to indulge in “despair” at the perilous state of global affairs. “Maybe because of all I’ve seen and all we have done together over the decades, I have hope.”
Biden to deliver final UNGA address at precarious moment for US and world
(GZERO media) Biden’s speech comes amid deepening political divisions in the US — just weeks ahead of a historic presidential election — and in the face of multiple major wars. The war in Gaza, and the tensions it’s fueling across the Middle East, will hang particularly heavy over Biden’s remarks.
Biden is also leaving office at a time when countries across the Global South are pointing to major double standards in terms of how the West — especially the US — approaches and upholds international values and norms. Critics of the US, for example, feel it has shown far more concern for civilians in the war in Ukraine than Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
A new report from the Munich Security Conference, which was discussed Monday at an event on the sidelines of UNGA, found that the US scored worst — alongside Russia, China, and European countries — among five out of nine countries surveyed on whether these actors treat countries like theirs with respect. To put it another way, there appears to be a growing perception in the Global South that Western countries like the US talk the talk when it comes to upholding international rules but don’t always walk the walk.

18 September
Ian Bremmer: How a second Trump term could reshape global politics
With less than 50 days to go until the US election and the former president now having near-even odds of taking back the White House, governments around the world are scrambling to work out what a second Trump term could mean for US foreign policy.
Two major regional wars, intensifying great-power competition with China, serious instability threatened by emboldened rogue actors like Russia and Iran, a sluggish global economy strained by structural supply chain shifts and 20-year-high interest rates, and disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence will place entirely new demands on Trump’s leadership.
The more challenging and volatile geopolitical context means the stakes are much higher than they were in 2017 when Trump first took office. Combined with the former president’s immutable traits, this suggests that a second Trump term would likely deliver significantly more extreme foreign policy outcomes than his first term, the current Biden administration, and a Kamala Harris presidency.

22 August

Full Transcript of Kamala Harris’s Democratic Convention Speech
…we must also be steadfast in advancing our security and values abroad. As vice president, I have confronted threats to our security, negotiated with foreign leaders, strengthened our alliances and engaged with our brave troops overseas. As commander in chief, I will ensure America always has the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world. And I will fulfill our sacred obligation to care for our troops and their families, and I will always honor and never disparage their service and their sacrifice.
I will make sure that we lead the world into the future on space and artificial intelligence. That America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership. Trump, on the other hand, threatened to abandon NATO. He encouraged Putin to invade our allies. Said Russia could “do whatever the hell they want.”
I will make sure that we lead the world into the future on space and artificial intelligence. That America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership. Trump, on the other hand, threatened to abandon NATO. He encouraged Putin to invade our allies. Said Russia could “do whatever the hell they want.”
Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelensky to warn him about Russia’s plan to invade. I helped mobilize a global response — over 50 countries — to defend against Putin’s aggression. And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.
With respect to the war in Gaza, President Biden and I are working around the clock, because now is the time to get a hostage deal and a cease-fire deal done.
And let me be clear. And let me be clear. I will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself, and I will always ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself, because the people of Israel must never again face the horror that a terrorist organization called Hamas caused on Oct. 7, including unspeakable sexual violence and the massacre of young people at a music festival.
At the same time, what has happened in Gaza over the past 10 months is devastating. So many innocent lives lost. Desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety, over and over again. The scale of suffering is heartbreaking.
President Biden and I are working to end this war, such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination.
And know this: I will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend our forces and our interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists. I will not cozy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim Jong-un, who are rooting for Trump. Who are rooting for Trump.

Palestinians must have right of self-determination, says Kamala Harris
(The Telegraph UK) Kamala Harris pledged to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and chart a “new way forward” as president in her closing speech to the Democratic convention on Thursday night.

22 July
How Kamala Harris views the world: From Gaza and Russia to China and India
(Al Jazeera) US presidential candidate Kamala Harris is expected to remain consistent with President Joe Biden’s policies on China, Ukraine and Gaza for the most part.
World leaders react to Biden dropping out of US election race
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Israeli President Isaac Herzog among those paying tribute to US president.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow was more focused on winning the war in Ukraine than the outcome of the US election.
“For us, reaching the goals of the special military operation [against Ukraine] is a priority, rather than the outcome of the US elections,” Peskov told state media.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he respected Biden’s decision and looked forward to working with him during the remainder of his presidency.
Canadian Prime Minister Justice Trudeau hailed Biden as a “great man” whose every action was “guided by his love for his country.”

18 June
A Foreign Policy for the World as It Is
Biden and the Search for a New American Strategy
By Ben Rhodes
(Foreign Affairs July/August 2024) “America is back.” In the early days of his presidency, Joe Biden repeated those words as a starting point for his foreign policy. … Biden’s initial pledge was a balm to many after Trump’s presidency ended in the dual catastrophes of COVID-19 and the January 6 insurrection. Yet two challenges largely beyond the Biden administration’s control shadowed the message of superpower restoration. First was the specter of Trump’s return. Allies watched nervously as the former president maintained his grip on the Republican Party and Washington remained mired in dysfunction. Autocratic adversaries, most notably Russian President Vladimir Putin, bet on Washington’s lack of staying power. New multilateral agreements akin to the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris agreement on climate change, or the Trans-Pacific Partnership were impossible, given the vertiginous swings in U.S. foreign policy.
Second, the old rules-based international order doesn’t really exist anymore. Sure, the laws, structures, and summits remain in place. But core institutions such as the UN Security Council and the World Trade Organization are tied in knots by disagreements among their members. Russia is committed to disrupting U.S.-fortified norms. China is committed to building its own alternative order. On trade and industrial policy, even Washington is moving away from core tenets of post–Cold War globalization. Regional powers such as Brazil, India, Turkey, and the Gulf states pick and choose which partner to plug into depending on the issue. Even the high-water mark for multilateral action in the Biden years—support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia—remains a largely Western initiative. As the old order unravels, these overlapping blocs are competing over what will replace it.
… If Biden does win a second term, he should use it to build on those of his policies that have accounted for shifting global realities, while pivoting away from the political considerations, maximalism, and Western-centric view that have caused his administration to make some of the same mistakes as its predecessors. The stakes are high. Whoever is president in the coming years will have to avoid global war, respond to the escalating climate crisis, and grapple with the rise of new technologies such as artificial intelligence. Meeting the moment requires abandoning a mindset of American primacy and recognizing that the world will be a turbulent place for years to come. Above all, it requires building a bridge to the future—not the past.

11 June
Biden and Zelenskyy will sign a security deal, as G7 leaders agree to use Russian cash to help Kyiv
(AP) — President Joe Biden and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will sign a bilateral security agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine on Thursday when they meet on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Italy.

5-6 June
Biden in Normandy says he prays Americans don’t become isolationists
In the first of his two addresses in France, Biden makes the case for international alliances.
(Politico) President Joe Biden on Thursday used the 80th anniversary of D-Day to warn against the spread of isolationism and to promise that the U.S. would “not walk away” from Ukraine.
Speaking before a crowd of aging WWII veterans, many over 100 years old and wheelchair bound, Biden pointed to the beaches of Normandy, where he spoke, as “a powerful illustration of how alliances make us stronger. It was, he remarked, “a lesson that I pray Americans never forget.”
Biden’s speech was a combination of somber reflections and calls for action. Standing alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and dozens of American veterans, Biden lauded the courage of World War II’s last living veterans while connecting their fight eight decades ago to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Noting that Ukranians who have fought invading Russian troops for the past two years, Biden touted the recent expansion of NATO and vowed never to back down to autocrats like Russian President Vladimir Putin. …
Macron, who spoke before Biden during the ceremony, described the “eternal bond” between the U.S. and France. “It’s a blood tie, shed for liberty,” he said,
Biden is set to attend a second, larger D-Day commemoration at Omaha Beach Thursday afternoon with a number of other world leaders, including Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is likely to be NATO’s next secretary general.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will also be among the guests. Biden and Zelenskyy are likely to meet briefly following the event where they are expected to briefly discuss the latest developments around Russia’s invasion and additional security guarantees and actions the U.S. and other allies may be able to take.
Biden will return to Normandy on Friday for a longer speech he plans to deliver at Pointe du Hoc, the legendary 100-foot cliff that Army rangers scaled during the D-Day invasion. The back-to-back speeches over two days here, according to national security adviser Jake Sullivan, are about “drawing a through line” from World War II through the Cold War to the present day.
Foreign policy becomes a liability for Biden’s campaign as he heads to France
Even Democrats are sounding alarms about foreign wars hurting Biden in November.
(Politico) As Biden begins a month of high stakes international meetings with a trip to France this week, two bloody wars in Ukraine and Gaza have complicated the president’s job and, polls show, contributed to the shakiness of his political standing at home.
“There is a sense of global chaos that will not be helpful to him” this fall, said Matt Duss, a former senior policy adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and an executive vice president at the Center for International Policy. “I think people have legitimate questions of, ‘Are we on the right track here?’”
Or as put by one longtime Democratic strategist, who was granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly: “Foreign policy is a problem for Biden because it undermines the central tenet of his 2020 candidacy, when he said he would restore America abroad and return us to normalcy.”
Biden’s polling took a hit — and never recovered — after the the botched withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, with 13 American service members killed by a suicide bomber. But after that debacle, Biden could still point to a string of foreign policy successes. By the midway point of his term, he had helped unify NATO allies following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and stymie President Vladimir Putin’s hopes for a quick and easy war.

30 May
Biden to mark D-Day anniversary with remarks in France
Biden will travel to Normandy on June 5 and give his remarks the next day. He then will participate in other engagements with first lady Jill Biden for the anniversary, which will include greeting American veterans and their family members to honor those who landed at Utah and Omaha beaches in Normandy in 1944.
The president celebrated the 79 anniversary of D-Day last year with a statement, saying the service members who served that day “represent the greatest generation in our history.”
On June 7, the president will deliver remarks at Pointe du Hoc, France, and then travel to Paris on June 8 for a state visit with French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife, Brigitte.
King Charles III is also planning to travel to France for British ceremonies to mark D-Day.
Biden’s engagement with foreign leaders is a break from his domestic travel to campaign ahead of November.
Biden to make state visit to France after D-Day 80th anniversary ceremonies
The US president and his wife Jill Biden will be hosted by Emmanuel Macron in Paris starting on June 8, after the commemorations in Normandy on June 6.
(Le Monde) President Emmanuel Macron will next week host Joe Biden for the US leader’s first state visit to France after both leaders attend commemorations for the World War II D-Day landings, the Elysée Palace said Thursday, May 30. Biden’s visit on June 8 for talks with Macron in Paris will come after the June 6 ceremony in Normandy marking 80 years since the D-Day landings. In a separate statement, the White House said Biden would be in France from June 5 to June 9.
Macron, Biden to discuss Ukraine, Middle East after marking D-Day
The state visit on June 8 will “reflect the enduring and comprehensive relationship between the United States and France, our oldest ally, founded on shared democratic values, economic ties, and defence and security cooperation.”
The two presidents will discuss a wide range of “global challenges” such as the Gaza war, Washington said.
Macron’s office said for its part that the two leaders would discuss “unfailing and long-term support” for Ukraine.

28 May
Blinken Travels to Eastern Europe as Russia Presses War in Ukraine
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken aims to show support for Moldova, which is under threat from Russia, and plans to attend a NATO meeting in the Czech Republic.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken plans to spend this week showing U.S. support for nations facing a hostile Russia in visits to Moldova and the Czech Republic, where he is scheduled to attend a meeting of NATO foreign ministers that will discuss how to bolster Ukraine.
Mr. Blinken, who made an overnight stop in Kyiv more than two weeks ago, flew into Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, on Wednesday to meet with Maia Sandu, the nation’s president, who is running for re-election. Ms. Sandu has advocated for Moldova to join the European Union, and she has scheduled a referendum vote on E.U. membership on the same day as the general election in October.

23 May
The Kenyan president’s landmark White House visit
On the diplomatic front, it was the first official state visit by an African leader to the White House since 2008.
(GZERO media)On the security front, President Joe Biden used the occasion to announce that his administration will work with Congress to designate Kenya as a “major non-NATO ally,” making the East African nation the 19th country to hold that status but the first in sub-Saharan Africa. This designation won’t require the US to defend Kenya if it falls under attack, as all NATO members are obligated by treaty to do on behalf of alliance partners, but it deepens strategic defense cooperation between the two and allows for jointly funded research and development projects.
On the technology front, Kenya is already home to a large concentration of startup tech companies. Biden and Ruto announced a partnership on semiconductor development on Thursday that could make Kenya the first country in Africa to receive funding from the so-called CHIPS Act, which subsidizes the production of cutting-edge computer chips. There will also be investment in AI and cybersecurity development.
Finally, on the geopolitical front, these agreements signal that the Biden administration recognizes the need to compete more aggressively with China, Russia, the UAE, Turkey, and others for trade, investment, and diplomatic opportunities in a resource-rich and increasingly innovative region of Africa.
Biden Honors Kenya as the East African Nation Prepares to Send Forces to Haiti
President Biden welcomed President William Ruto of Kenya and said he intended to designate his country as a “major non-NATO ally.”
(NYT) President Biden suggested on Thursday that the decision to have Kenya lead a security mission in Haiti, without troops from the United States on the ground, was meant to avoid the fraught history of American intervention in the deeply troubled country.
Mr. Biden said the United States would contribute money, logistical support and equipment as Kenya and other nations try to quell the gang violence that erupted there after the assassination of the country’s president in 2021. But in response to a question about why American troops will not participate, Mr. Biden alluded to previous U.S. interventions there.