Wednesday Night #2231

We are deeply saddened to learn of the death on Tuesday of Anthony (Tony) Shine, who, with his wife Ruth Walzer Shine were among my very first new friends when I came to Montreal to work at Expo67. Our heartfelt condolences to Ruth, Adam, Manita and their families.

Canada
Although not totally unexpected, the timing -and tone- of Chrystia Freeland’s Monday morning announcement made it the bombshell of the week – resounding in media around the world.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigns on day of economic update
Freeland says she argued for ‘eschewing costly political gimmicks’ and ‘keeping our fiscal powder dry’
Chrystia Freeland’s resignation seems carefully aimed at removing a sitting prime minister – Other than a Parliamentary vote of non-confidence or an unprecedented intervention by the governor-general, the only person who can directly remove Trudeau is Trudeau himself.
Freeland defended by Liberal MPs, as Trudeau’s feminist reputation is questioned
Doug Sweet‘s must-read is Shannon Proudfoot’s Justin Trudeau and the Liberals gather for a holly jolly family fight
The evening started with an awkward cocktail mingle, like a wedding where they ran out of budget or interest at one specific point in the planning. It was all scrawny red and gold balloon bouquets, cheap-looking banquet chairs and way too much space. The dress code was flummoxing too, running the gamut from “I just left the office” to “I just came from the Oscars.”
Eventually, the 2,000-odd guests drifted into a hangar-sized room for dinner. Here, the holly jolly atmosphere conjured up by the Rogers Centre convention venue in the heart of downtown Ottawa was tragically, hilariously at odds with the moment.
Finally, check out Politico Ottawa Playbook Life of the Party.

Canada-US
The chaos in Ottawa has only encouraged Trump and (some of?) his followers in their enthusiasm to annex Canada as the fifty-first State.
Don Braid: Trump’s talk of 51st state called Canada is an age-old dream, and no joke
The Own Canada movement is spreading fast in the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump jokes about the 51st state, his Fox News boosters amplify, and we squirm uncomfortably at the notion that this country could be annexed.
Interesting development on Wednesday afternoon, as Jean Charest reprises his role as Captain Canada: Donald Trump says Canada becoming 51st U.S. state is ‘a great idea.’ Jean Charest calls the comment a ‘wake-up call’
“Every Canadian, regardless of their opinion of the Prime Minister or political affiliation, should feel deeply offended by President Trump’s remarks. We might one day be grateful for this WAKE-UP CALL. For too long, we have been complacent in our relationships with the United States and the rest of the world. We need to unite and rise to this historic occasion to shape the future of Canada.”
A far more palatable choice than others contemplated – Doug Ford anyone?

On your behalf, we have checked out the conditions for Admission to the Union and would call to your attention the requirement that In most cases, the organized government of a territory having made known the sentiment of its population in favor of statehood. … Congress then empowered that government to organize a constitutional convention to write a state constitution. We wonder how long the notwithstanding clause would last? And that is supposing that the results of the required referendum(a?) were positive …
Musk, Trump and MAGA
Meanwhile, Trump’s unelected hatchet men, Musk and Ramaswamy campaign to get Republican lawmakers to tank stopgap funding bill -The bill is “full of excessive spending, special interest giveaways & pork barrel politics,” Ramaswamy said in a post on X on Wednesday morning. While Musk ramped up his online campaign against the bill with several posts, including one that called the bill “crazy” and another that characterized it as “criminal.”. Elon Musk continues to dominate social media -and Trump? For the moment they are on the same path, but how long before these two YUGE egos collide? And when will American politicians and voters wake up to the dangers of Musk’s influence?

While we were focused on North America’s problems, Germany’s Scholz loses a confidence vote, setting up an early election in February Politico Eu comments Few other countries can choreograph a government collapse that’s as painstakingly slow and deliberate as Germany is doing right now. Monday’s vote of confidence in Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the German parliament, which he’ll almost certainly lose, is just the latest step in a process that started in early November and culminates in a snap election on Feb. 23.
Adding to the turmoil in France (New French Prime Minister François Bayrou off to a nightmarish start) is the tragic aftermath of Cyclone Chido on France’s Mayotte an Indian Ocean archipelago of which the world knows little. Macron is headed there.
Oh! Yes, this too: Ex-president Sarkozy faces house arrest in France after corruption charge upheld.

There is little new to be said about Putin’s War – leaks and rumours, information and disinformation abound, but what we know for sure is that Russian general Igor Kirillov was killed in Moscow and Ukraine’s SBU intelligence service claims responsibility.

Tuesday’s Economist reflects the growing concern over China’s economy China’s economy is in for another rough year – Bold action is needed to turn things around. Much of the concern centers on population decline China is aging. Can it accept the clear solution? Concerns about maintaining racial purity and political control, trump, worries about a shrinking workforce.

Following up on last week’s questions about Belt & Road defaults
Tightening the Belt or End of the Road? China’s BRI at 10
Rather than a development program, the BRI resembled a new kind of imperialism.34 That is partly because the BRI was increasingly viewed as a Chinese jobs and export promotion program.35 Facing excess supply of steel and similar commodities from slowing domestic demand, Chinese state-owned enterprises sought overseas markets to offload their surpluses.36 Exporting Chinese concrete and copper became more important than the needs of the borrowing nation. This encouraged large loans and ambitious projects, irrespective of need.
BRI-financed pipelines and ports, rather than increasing trade for local countries, focused more on bringing critical resources into China and Chinese exports out into the world.37 This hoarding of resources was central to Xi Jinping’s vision of cornering markets on essential materials, components, and supplies that would “tighten international production chains’ dependence on China, forming a powerful countermeasure and deterrent capability against foreigners…”38 China also invested in overseas infrastructure with civilian/military interoperability in mind so that the Chinese navy might someday be able to resupply its warships at foreign ports.
From Argentina to Zambia, scores of countries are facing extreme debt-to-GDP ratios and debts so large that servicing them (not to mention funding domestic needs or investing in future projects) is nearly impossible.50 Across sub-Saharan Africa, public debt has tripled since 2010 — with Chinese lending a substantial contributor. China is also increasingly using debt financing instead of direct aid.51 Currently, China’s debt-to-aid ratio is 31-to-1.52
Many BRI countries were heavily indebted before China’s loans — frequently from prior Western financing or funding from the World Bank or International Monetary Fund.53 Yet BRI loans pushed many countries into crippling dependency. Moreover, unlike most OECD countries or multilateral lenders, such as the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF), BRI loans tend to be offered at market rates, which add high interest on top of substantial principal obligations.

Murky is the adjective most applicable to events in the Middle East as the excruciating clean-up in Syriacontinues. UN envoy to Syria warns conflict is not over amid ‘significant hostilities’
Israel-Gaza
The US, Egypt and Qatar have made significant progress in a ceasefire deal to halt the war in Gaza and free hostages held in the Palestinian Territories, according to sources briefed on this week’s talks in Cairo. Some sources said that the deal could even be days away, meaning an end to the fighting and the return of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. However, White House spokesperson John Kirby also said to maintain caution. “We’ve been in this position before where we weren’t able to get it over the finish line,” he reminded. Hamas said the group would participate in a ceasefire if Israel stopped setting new conditions. Other sources said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not attend the meetings in Cairo.
Israel issues fresh Gaza evacuation order despite increasing ceasefire hopes

The World reports that Almost 800 arrested over Nigerian crypto-romance scam
Nigeria’s anti-graft agency said it had arrested 792 suspects in a raid on a building believed to be a hub for fraudsters who lured victims with offers of romance, then pressed them to hand over cash for phony cryptocurrency investments.
The suspects, including 148 Chinese and 40 Filipino nationals, were detained on Dec. 10

Daughter of Wednesday Night?
Great article about Mireille Silcoff‘s Hot Chain salon, with generous references to Wednesday Night, by T’Cha Dunlevy: Conversation is a lost art. Montreal’s Hot Chain salon aims to revive it
Every few months, a rotating roster of 50 Montrealers hand-picked by host Mireille Silcoff or nominated by previous attendees gathers over a glass of wine to sit and discuss the topic du jour.

What’s with the drones?
Panic over mystery drones says more about people than UFOs
Life’s great mysteries aren’t solved while taking out the trash or driving along a deserted highway.

Varia
Marble tablet inscribed with the Ten Commandments auctioned for $5m
The tablet sold by Sotheby’s is the oldest known inscription in stone of the ancient text in Paleo-Hebrew script.

The Extremely Offline Joy of the Board Game Club
Hungry for in-person interaction, Gen Z and millennial players are joining old-fashioned chess, mahjong and backgammon groups.
Board game sales in the United States surged more than 30 percent from 2019 to 2020, fueled by the Covid-19 pandemic, said Juli Lennett, a toy industry adviser for Circana, a market research firm. Stuck at home and starved for social interaction, many Americans were able to “rediscover the love of gameplay.”
Barry Jenkins brings fresh energy, originality to the ‘Lion King’ prequel ‘Mufasa’
“Mufasa: The Lion King” has one very important thing going for it: an original story.
And this story isn’t simply checking off fan service boxes and overexplaining origins that never needed them: It’s actually good. A prequel to “The Lion King,” opening in theaters Thursday, it’s a tale of found family, betrayal and destiny, one that begins to explain the estrangement between brothers Scar and Mufasa that we all know will end in murder, how Mufasa ( Aaron Pierre ) ends up as king of the pride lands and, perhaps most importantly, why only one has an English accent.

‘It’s become uncomfortable for me’: Jordan Peterson says he’s leaving Canada for the U.S.
‘The issue with the College of Psychologists is very annoying to say the least,’ he said in the interview

Events
Carols by Candlelight
The Church of St. Andrew and St. Paul
Friday, December 20, 2024, 7:30 p.m.
Saturday, December 21, 2024, 4:00 p.m.
Entrance: freewill offering (suggested donation $40)

Inauguration and Beyond -Framing the impacts of the new U.S. presidency
https://globeandmailevents.com/inaugurationandbeyondvirtual/GlobeEmail
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 | 1:00 P.M. – 4:00 P.M. ET
FREE VIRTUAL EVENT
As the U.S. prepares to inaugurate its 47th president, Canada and other nations are preparing for change – from trade deals and tariffs to the economy, protectionism and geopolitics. On the domestic front the new U.S. administration must navigate a range of contingencies, not the least of which is the makeup of the House and Senate.
Against this backdrop The Globe and Mail will host part two of its U.S. Election series, on January 15, 2025. The event will bring together top political journalists and analysts to discuss what the shifts might mean for Canada and the world.

Local news and outrage – Montreal, Westmount and adjacent
We are sorry to learn that Michel Leblanc is stepping down as head of Montreal chamber of commerce. He has been a voice of moderation whilst undertaking numerous initiatives on behalf of the business community -and Montreal’s economy.

Development plan for Westmount’s southeast sector must be rejected
Westmount City Council is currently considering a high-density development proposal in our neighborhood that goes against all the principles espoused by previous administrations. Bravo to former mayors Peter Trent and Karin Marks, who along with Julia Gersovitz, professor at McGill’s School of Architecture and a former chairperson of Westmount’s Planning Advisory Committee, have raised the alarm and we are helping to rally the troops.

Long reads/videos

If you don’t watch anything else, see Wednesday’s  CTV Power Play
Donald Trump says Canada becoming 51st U.S. state is ‘a great idea.’ Jean Charest calls the comment a ‘wake-up call’

With mention of “Montreal take-no-prisoners freelancer Sandy Wolofsky”
Jeremy Kinsman: The Many Stages of Chrystia Freeland
Policy foreign affairs writer and veteran diplomat Jeremy Kinsman first met Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland over dinner at a mutual friend’s apartment in Moscow in the tumultuous early 90s, when he was Canada’s ambassador to Russia and she was a young journalist. Since that moment, he has seen her dance on a tabletop at the Hungry Duck pub, provoke Vladimir Putin, finesse Donald Trump and become the most powerful woman in Canada. It’s been a trip. (Policy January 2020)

The New Battle for the Middle East – Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Clash of Visions
(Foreign Affairs November/December 2024) Iran and Saudi Arabia are both autocratic energy titans, collectively controlling nearly a third of the world’s oil reserves and a fifth of its natural gas. Yet they are led by starkly different men with profoundly different plans.

My [Paul Krugman’s] Last Column: Finding Hope in an Age of Resentment
These days there has been a lot of discussion of the hard right turn of some tech billionaires, from Elon Musk on down. I’d argue that we shouldn’t overthink it, and we especially shouldn’t try to say that this is somehow the fault of politically correct liberals. Basically it comes down to the pettiness of plutocrats who used to bask in public approval and are now discovering that all the money in the world can’t buy you love. So is there a way out of the grim place we’re in? What I believe is that while resentment can put bad people in power, in the long run it can’t keep them there.

The China-Russia relationship and threats to vital US interests
Patricia M. Kim, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Angela Stent, and Tara Varma
The growing alignment between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation has significant implications for vital U.S. interests and the interests of U.S. allies and partners.