Canada – U.S. 10 February 2025-

Canada – U.S. November 2024-10 February 2025
Evan Solomon:
Does Canada need to prepare for a US attack?

Policy Series: The Expert Group on Canada-US Relations on Navigating Trump II
As Canada and the world adjust to the second American presidency of Donald J. Trump, beginning with his threats of a tariff-based trade war, Policy will be posting regular insight pieces from members of the Expert Group on Canada-US Relations, sharing their individual perspectives and expertise. The Expert Group is a foreign policy initiative jointly sponsored by Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs and the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.
With many thanks to Expert Group co-chairs and Policy contributors Perrin Beatty and Fen Osler Hampson
Attempting to annex Canada would spell disaster for the U.S. at home and abroad
By George S. Rigakos, Professor of the Political Economy of Policing, Carleton University
(The Conversation) The notion that Canada could become the 51st state of the United States, as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has proposed, is not only unrealistic, but would also signal the collapse of American global hegemony and the disintegration of the U.S. as a unified nation.
I’m a Canadian listening to Trump. Let’s talk about ‘the 51st state’
Don Tapscott, Canadian author of a dozen globally read books, who advises business and government leaders in many countries.
(Fortune) Trump picked a choice moment to make a move on Ottawa. Canadians are in a dour mood, leading some on its cultural and political fringes to seriously consider the upside of a Washington tie-up. Canadian investor and Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary, for instance, called a potential U.S.-Canadian merger “a great idea” and “huge opportunity.” …
The problem is that Canadians overwhelmingly want to remain Canadian. A recent poll found that 94% of Canadians prefer not to join the U.S. Canadians are as likely to give up their national identity as Americans would be, and everyone here is deeply offended at the suggestion of abandoning our beloved country.
Still, the U.S. is the world’s largest economy and an undisputed leader in technology and innovation, and Canada could gain serious economic benefits to an ever-closer union with her southern neighbor. Canadians are proud, but we’re also nothing if not open-minded; perhaps we should at least consider the idea.
Make an offer, America—but here are our terms:
To begin, let’s talk about valuation—what is Washington willing to pay for a merger? Canada is the world’s second largest country, has the world’s largest coastline, and is the fourth largest oil producer. Oh, we’re also home to more than 10% of the planet’s fresh water, not to mention a thriving economy.
In her 2013 book Merger of the Century, U.S.-Canadian writer Diane Francis argued that the two countries should be combined, and she enlisted an investment banker to determine the price tag. The two used metrics sourced from the CIA’s World Factbook—comparing U.S. and Canadian GDPs; their total land areas, including offshore rights; debts; foreign reserves, and gold assets; renewable resources such as water and farmland; and fossil fuel production. In rough numbers, Canada was worth $17 trillion more
than the U.S., equivalent to $492,529 per Canadian! – Fortune 8 January 2025
The Moment ‘Elbows Up’ became a rally cry against Trump
In response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, Canadian actor Mike Myers may have started a movement by pointing to his elbow and mouthing the words ‘elbows up’ during appearances on Saturday Night Live. The phrase has caught on and has become a rallying cry in the trade war.

31 March
Trump threats open ‘floodgate’ of inquiries from U.S. physicians about moving north
Some Canadian doctors are also turning down opportunities in the U.S.
Canada’s health-care system could stand to benefit from the political upheaval unleashed by the U.S. president, as American physicians look to move north and Canadians forgo opportunities south of the border.
Meanwhile in the U.S., many physicians are considering whether they can continue doing their jobs under a second Trump administration.
CBC spoke with two American physicians seeking to relocate to Canada and a third who recently moved to B.C….they shared concerns over health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. advancing an anti-science and vaccine-skeptical agenda.

28 March
Carney calls 1st official call with Trump ‘cordial’ and ‘positive,’ but tariffs still expected next week
Liberal Party Leader Mark Carney says his phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday morning was very ‘cordial’ between two leaders of two sovereign nations. Carney says Trump respected Canada’s sovereignty both in his private and public comments on Friday.
Trump Tones Down His Rhetoric About Canada After Call With Its Leader
Ian Austen
The president and Canada’s new prime minister, Mark Carney, spoke for the first time on Friday and promised to begin negotiations on trade.
(NYT) References to the “governor” of the 51st U.S. state that once punctuated Mr. Trump’s social media posts about Justin Trudeau, the previous prime minister, were absent, and the president instead used Mr. Carney’s proper title and his given name.
And after offering positive comments online, the president later suggested to reporters that Canada was not among the nations he believed have treated the United States unfairly in trade. … “Many countries have taken advantage of us,” but not Canada, Mr. Trump said.
He added: “I think things will work out very well between Canada and the United States.”
Earlier, in a social media post, the president described his call with Mr. Carney on Friday as “an extremely productive call, we agree on many things.”
Canada, U.S. agree to start discussions on new economic, security relationship after federal election
Canada and the United States have agreed to begin comprehensive negotiations on a new economic and security relationship following this country’s April 28 election, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office announced Friday.
The agreement paves the way for talks between Mr. Trump and whoever wins the Canadian election, which decide who will deal with the U.S. President’s continuing tariff war against his country’s closest trading partners. Mr. Carney’s office acknowledged he has yet to win a new mandate.
Mr. Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump spoke for the first time Friday [28 March] morning since Mr. Carney took office March 14.

27 March
Canada’s Prime Minister Says U.S. Is ‘No Longer a Reliable Partner’ on Trade
(NYT) President Trump’s announcement of 25 percent tariffs on cars and parts sent shock waves through the global auto industry. Canada said it would respond with tariffs of its own.
Carney says he’ll speak to Trump soon
(CBC) Carney said Trump’s team reached out to set up a call likely in the next day or two. It will be the first conversation between the two men as leaders of the once close countries.
Carney has previously said he is open to a conversation if the president, who repeatedly taunts that Canada should become the 51st state, respects Canada’s sovereignty.
Speaking in French he said that’s not much to ask for, but “apparently it’s a lot for him.”
Canadian Prime Minister Carney calls Trump’s auto tariffs a ‘direct attack’ on his country
(AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday that U.S. President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs are a “direct attack” on his country and that the trade war is hurting Americans, noting that American consumer confidence is at a multi-year low.
Trump said earlier Wednesday that he was placing 25% tariffs on auto imports and, to underscore his intention, he stated, “This is permanent.”
Carney said he needs to see the details of Trump’s executive order before taking retaliatory measures. He called it unjustified and said he will leave the election campaign to go to Ottawa on Thursday to chair his special Cabinet committee on U.S. relations.

25 March
‘A serious, serious issue’: Canada’s Carney jabs Trump admin after war plans leak fiasco
“Mistakes do happen, but what’s important is how people react to those mistakes,” Liberal leader needles Washington after a journalist received sensitive information about a bombing raid.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney rebuked the White House on Tuesday after sensitive American military plans were accidentally sent to a journalist on Signal.
Carney said the Five Eyes intelligence sharing network — which includes Britain, Australia and New Zealand as well as Canada and the U.S. — needs to learn lessons from the leak of intelligence
Lawyers advise Canadians working in U.S. to avoid travel amid border crackdown
(Globe & Mail) U.S. immigration lawyers are warning foreigners working and studying in America – including Canadians – to refrain from international travel, saying that crossing the U.S. border has become significantly more unpredictable since U.S. President Donald Trump took office and that they run the risk of being detained or refused entry.
The Trump administration has issued a series of broad executive orders over the past two months that aim to “secure” the American border by expediting the removal of undocumented migrants. But immigration lawyers say the overall hostile tone from the White House toward non-U.S. citizens is emboldening border agents to become more heavy-handed with travellers leaving and entering the country, even those who hold valid work and study visas.
In some cases lawyers are advising clients to prepare for increased scrutiny of their personal histories, including possible searches of their cellphones for evidence of their political leanings.
Earlier this month, New York-based immigration law firm Dyer Harris LLP, which helps foreigners secure work visas in the U.S., sent an e-mail to their clients residing and working in the country recommending that they hold off on international travel altogether, unless in an emergency.

24 March
Carney still hasn’t spoken to Trump, thinks president is waiting for election results to talk
PM says he’s available to talk if the president shows respect for Canada’s sovereignty
“I’m available for a call, but we’re going to talk on our terms. As a sovereign country — not as what he pretends we are — and on a comprehensive deal,” said Carney during a campaign stop in Gander, N.L., where he leaned heavily on Canadian patriotism.
In Canada, I saw how Trump is ripping North America apart – and how hard its bond will be to repair
Andy Beckett
With the US president now warmer to Moscow than to Ottawa, it’s little surprise Canadians I met rolled their eyes at the decline of the special relationship
(The Guardian) …the number of Canadians visiting the US is already plummeting: last month it was as low as during the latter stages of the pandemic. In this, as in much else, Canada may be an early adopter of new habits regarding the US which then spread across what is left of the liberal west. For left-leaning foreigners, Americana and American places may lose much of their appeal, because the US has been made so authoritarian and hostile to outsiders by such a quintessentially American figure.
Canada is self-consciously following another path. “Canada is a mosaic,” says Carney, and pro-diversity messages pour out of its government and businesses, as if calculated to wind up US conservatives. As well as vast, increasingly coveted supplies of water and minerals, Canada – despite its considerable inequalities and very heavy per capita carbon footprint – offers an increasingly different model of how to live on the North American continent.
…hard to imagine US-Canadian relations returning quickly to their former state. Too many imbalances and contrasts between the countries have been pointed out, too many threats offered. Trust has been lost. Political careers are being made on both sides by acting tough towards the neighbouring government.

21 March
US decision to limit Canadian access to border-straddling library prompts outpouring of emotion
(AP) — For more than 100 years, people in Stanstead, Quebec have been able to walk into Derby Line, Vermont to enter the border-straddling Haskell Free Library and Opera House – no passport required.
But municipal and library officials said on Friday that U.S. authorities have unilaterally decided to end the century-old unwritten agreement. Coming at a time of heightened tensions between the two countries, the decision is prompting an outpouring of emotion in communities on both sides of the border, which in places has been marked simply by flower pots.
U.S. maple farms ‘rely’ on Canada. How Trump’s tariffs tap a pain point
The trade war between Canada and the U.S. is threatening to slow the flow of a famed Canadian export — maple syrup — and the equipment used to manufacture what’s often dubbed liquid gold.
“We wouldn’t be able to make maple syrup without Canada. They’re the kings,” Vermont maple farmer Jim Judd told Global News.
Trump calls Canada a “nasty negotiator,” comments on election (YouTube)
Speaking in the Oval Office Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke about the trade war with Canada, justifying aggressive tariffs on the country, saying it has “been a very nasty negotiator.”
The Republican leader highlighted Canada’s 270 per cent tariffs on U.S. dairy farmers and a non-specific “couple of [other] tariffs” which he claimed sit at 400 per cent.”
“We don’t need their cars. We don’t need their lumber. We don’t need their energy. We don’t need anything from Canada,” Trump said. “And yet it costs us $200 billion a year in subsidy to keep Canada afloat. So, when I say they should be a state, I mean that,” he added.

20 March
Canada Institute scrambles to survive
(GZERO North) At a moment of historic difficulty in the Canada-US relationship, Donald Trump last week cut the funding of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute, and he can likely block efforts to save it.
The think tank, which has studied the relationship and hosted events for visiting Canadian politicians since 2001, got a death sentence last week in the same Trump executive order that defunded Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and Radio Free Asia.
Former American Ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman, who is co-chair of the institute’s advisory board, is hoping it can be saved.
Heyman thinks that the institute, which has relied on US government funding, could find funding from Canadian governments or businesses that want to maintain the link, but that may depend on permission from the US government, which seems uninterested in cooperating with Canada.

19 March
How King Charles is sending Canada subtle signals of support amid Trump’s threats
Justin Vovk, Royal Historian, McMaster University
(The Conversation) Over the last several weeks, observers have started to pick up on subtle signs of support for Canadians from the King. But many people have no doubt been wondering why there’s not been a direct statement of support from King Charles.
The answer to that question isn’t as simple as many people might think.
Since 1689, Britain has been a constitutional monarchy. The sovereign is the head of state, but the prime minister leads the government. As such, the King can’t interfere with politics. He is supposed to remain neutral and be the embodiment of the nation.
… King Charles can’t make a political statement about the ongoing tensions between Canada and the U.S. without the green light from Ottawa. When asked about the situation in January, a palace official said simply that this is “not something we would comment on.”

Canada needs a new flight plan for fighter jets
Globe & Mail Editorial Board
The Liberal government’s decision to review its planned acquisition of the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet is mostly political theatre, at the moment.
The contract, after two full decades of debate and dithering, is signed and the first aircraft arrive next year. In any case, the upcoming federal election will pre-empt any formal reconsideration. But once the election is concluded, a review of the fighter jet acquisition is needed.
The government’s willingness to consider abandoning at least a portion of its commitment to the F-35 fighter speaks volumes about how profoundly Canada’s relationship with the United States has worsened. The country that has long been Canada’s defence partner is now so unreliable an ally – if ally is still the right word – that the federal government is reluctant to purchase arms from it.
Canada must weigh risk Trump blocks software upgrades for F-35s: former official
Steven Chase, Nicolas Van Praet
Ottawa needs to consider the risk that U.S.-made F-35 fighters could be denied software upgrades if President Donald Trump is upset at Canada, a former senior federal procurement official says.
The federal government has announced it is reviewing a multibillion-dollar agreement to buy the Lockheed Martin warplane as a bitter trade war with the United States deepens. Earlier this week, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada is weighing trimming its F-35 purchase plans to buy an alternative aircraft that is more cost effective and could deliver additional industrial benefits to this country instead of sending more dollars to the United States.
Alan Williams, who once served as assistant deputy minister of materiel at the Department of National Defence and before that as assistant deputy minister of supply operations service at the Department of Public Works, welcomed Ottawa’s decision to review its F-35 purchase.
Only 40% of air force inventory ready for action as Canada rethinks its F-35 contract
Mixed fleets and avoiding American firms come with their own challenges
(CBC) The F-35 fighter jet is built by American company Lockheed Martin. Canada has bought 88 of the aircraft, but is rethinking its full order.

18 March
U.S. trade actions have raised questions about validity of USMCA, Carney says
Asked what he would say in a future phone call with Mr. Trump, Mr. Carney said the United States’ behaviour in recent months – threatening and applying tariffs to a country that has a free-trade agreement with Washington and is integrated with the U.S. economy – has raised concerns.
“There are a series of trade initiatives from the U.S., such that they have called into question the validity of the USMCA.
“That means that we should have a broader conversation about our commercial relationship, which also involves a conversation about our security relationship, with the United States, [s]o I’m less interested in reacting to every initiative,” Mr. Carney said, adding he was “putting on the table that we want to have that broader conversation.”

The Americans who are buying Canadian to oppose Trump’s trade war
Some Americans are choosing to support Canada economically, whether by pouring travel dollars into the country, spending on Canadian groceries or rallying across social-media groups dedicated to supporting their northern neighbour’s businesses. They join Canadians who are already taking a stand against U.S. tariffs with their pocketbooks, dodging American products and tourism.
It’s too soon to measure whether there’s been an uptick in American tourism in Canada, but many U.S. travellers these days are vocal about their discomfort with the trade war, said Marc Telio, president and founder of boutique travel company Entrée Canada and a member of the Leisure Advisory Committee for Destination Canada.

17 March
Canada’s Carney says Trump must stop comments before bilateral talks can start
(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump must stop making “disrespectful” comments about Canada before the two countries can start serious talks about future ties, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday.
“We’ve called out those comments. They’re disrespectful, they’re not helpful, and they … will have to stop before we sit down and have a conversation about our broader partnership with the United States,” Carney told reporters in London.
The remarks by Carney are his toughest yet on Trump since launching his political career in January.
Carney said Canada wanted a more comprehensive discussion and negotiation of the two neighbors’ overall commercial and security relationship.
“When the United States is ready to have that conversation, we’re more than ready to sit down,” he said.
Canada has retaliated with tariffs against tens of billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. imports. Carney said Ottawa would only take action it thought could affect U.S. behavior.
“So this will be very deliberate and there is a limit, full stop. There is a limit to matching these tariffs, dollar for dollar, given the fact that our economy is a tenth the size the United States,” he said.

16 March
Timothy Snyder: Blame Canada
Our warmongering, drugged-out conspiracy theory
… as former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said,…tariffs are a step in a policy designed to soften up Canada for annexation. This follows from what Trump himself has said, on a number of occasions in public, and also to Trudeau in private. Trump himself is ever more persistent and direct in his claim that Canada should become the fifty-first state. Once we see that the tariffs have nothing to do with fentanyl, we can ask: why, then, all the rhetoric?
The tariff policy and the fentanyl fantasy both come from another place: the desire to annex Canada.…

14 March
Joly tells Marco Rubio ‘Canada’s sovereignty is not up to debate, period’
Rubio says Trump’s 51st state comments reflect a ‘disagreement between the president’s position’ and Canada’s
At the G7 foreign ministers meeting in La Malbaie, Que., this week, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly says she told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ‘there’s no conversation about it, there’s no need to talk about’ President Donald Trump’s taunts that Canada should become the 51st state.

12 March
Canada hits U.S. with tariffs on $29.8B worth of goods after Trump slaps levy on metals
The federal government announced a plan on Wednesday to slap tariffs on $29.8 billion worth of American goods to hit back against U.S. President Donald Trump after he imposed punishing tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum early this morning.
Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, the government’s point person on Canada-U.S. relations, said Trump’s attack on Canadian industry is “unjustified and unjustifiable” and the government must retaliate as the U.S. inserts “disruption and disorder” into what was once one of the most successful trading relationships in the world.

11 March
Trump Intensifies Statehood Threats in Attack on Canada
The U.S. president on Tuesday reiterated his claims on Canada’s territory as he increased tariffs, threatening to bring the country’s economy to its knees.
(NYT) The fresh attacks President Trump aimed at Canada on Tuesday extended beyond imposing more tariffs on America’s neighbor and NATO ally, and laid out in the clearest terms yet his vision for annexing Canada and making it part of the United States.
… Much of the world has been seeing Mr. Trump’s fixation with annexing Canada as a joke, or merely bluster to push for concessions on trade and other forms of economic integration. It’s been regarded as the least realistic and plausible of Mr. Trump’s territorial ambitions, which also include annexing Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, and wanting to reclaim the Panama Canal.
But Canadian political leaders, and Canadians at large, have been taking Mr. Trump deadly seriously.

Snowbirds must soon submit fingerprints for U.S. travel under new Homeland Security rules
Rules apply to all foreign nationals staying for 30 days or longer
Canadians and other foreign nationals who plan to stay in the U.S. for 30 days or longer will soon be required to apply for registration and fingerprinting with the Department of Homeland Security.
The draft rule, which stems from a Jan. 20 executive order, is expected to be put in force April 11, according to media reports.

Trump placing 25% tariff on steel, aluminum after backing off 50% threat
Ottawa is promising to hit back if new tariffs go ahead
Trump said earlier in the day he would hike the tariff rate on those metals to 50 per cent because Ontario Premier Doug Ford slapped a tax on all electricity the province sends to the U.S., pushing up energy prices for 1.5 million American households and businesses.
After speaking with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump’s tariff czar, Ford agreed to pause the tax until he has trade discussions with the administration in Washington on Thursday.

10 March
Why Won’t Trump Shut Up about Canada?
The president sees us as standing in the way of plans for hemispheric dominance
by David Moscrop
(The Walrus) Trump is a mercantilist obsessed with the balance of trade. He sees commerce as a zero-sum game. In his view, if the US buys more from a country than it sells in return, it’s getting ripped off. And since Americans import more from Canada than we do from them, we get an outsized share of his attention—hence his preoccupation with punitive tariffs. “We pay hundreds of Billions of Dollars to SUBSIDIZE Canada,” Trump raged on social media in early February. “Why? There is no reason. We don’t need anything they have.”

9 March
Tariff battle set to escalate this week with U.S. levies on Canadian steel and aluminum
(Globe & Mail) The U.S. says 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are still set to take effect on Wednesday, a move that would escalate the trade war between the two countries that President Donald Trump launched last week.
Mr. Trump initiated 25-per-cent tariffs on all Canadian goods last Tuesday, with energy and critical minerals facing a 10-per-cent tariff. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau quickly retaliated with 25-per-cent tariffs on $30-billion worth of imported goods from the U.S., rising to $155-billion if the U.S. levies aren’t lifted.
Two days later, Mr. Trump signed an executive order to temporarily grant Canada and Mexico a partial reprieve from the 25-per-cent tariffs until April 2. The order also lowered the tariff on potash, a fertilizer essential to all major American crops, to 10 per cent from 25 per cent.
But previously planned tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are set to begin this week, U.S. officials said on the weekend.

7 March
How Trump’s ‘51st State’ Canada Talk Came to Be Seen as Deadly Serious
President Trump, in an early February call, challenged the border treaty between the two countries and told Justin Trudeau he didn’t like their shared water agreements.
By Matina Stevis-Gridneff
(NYT) After President Trump imposed tariffs on Canada on Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an extraordinary statement that was largely lost in the fray of the moment.
“The excuse that he’s giving for these tariffs today of fentanyl is completely bogus, completely unjustified, completely false,” Mr. Trudeau told the news media in Ottawa.
“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us,” he added.
This is the story of how Mr. Trudeau went from thinking Mr. Trump was joking when he referred to him as “governor” and Canada as “the 51st state” in early December to publicly stating that Canada’s closest ally and neighbor was implementing a strategy of crushing the country in order to take it over.
The February Calls
Mr. Trump and Mr. Trudeau spoke twice on Feb. 3, once in the morning and again in the afternoon, as part of discussions to stave off tariffs on Canadian exports.
… The details of the conversations between the two leaders, and subsequent discussions among top U.S. and Canadian officials, have not been previously fully reported, and were shared with The New York Times on condition of anonymity by four people with firsthand knowledge of their content. They did not want to be publicly identified discussing a sensitive topic.
On those calls, President Trump laid out a long list of grievances he had with the trade relationship between the two countries, including Canada’s protected dairy sector, the difficulty American banks face in doing business in Canada and Canadian consumption taxes that Mr. Trump deems unfair because they make American goods more expensive.
He also brought up something much more fundamental.
He told Mr. Trudeau that he did not believe that the treaty that demarcates the border between the two countries was valid and that he wants to revise the boundary. He offered no further explanation.
This week, the U.S. tariffs came into effect without a fresh reprieve on Tuesday. Canada, in return, imposed its own tariffs on U.S. exports, plunging the two nations into a trade war. (On Thursday, Mr. Trump granted Canada a month-long suspension on most of the tariffs.)
Glimpses of the rupture between Mr. Trump and Mr. Trudeau, and of Mr. Trump’s aggressive plans for Canada, have been becoming apparent over the past few months.
The Toronto Star, a Canadian newspaper, has reported that Mr. Trump mentioned the 1908 border treaty in the early February call and other details from the conversation. And the Financial Times has reported that there are discussions in the White House about removing Canada from a crucial intelligence alliance among five nations, attributing those to a senior Trump adviser.
… Mr. Lutnick called Mr. LeBlanc after the leaders had spoken on Feb. 3, and issued a devastating message, according to several people familiar with the call: Mr. Trump, he said, had come to realize that the relationship between the United States and Canada was governed by a slew of agreements and treaties that were easy to abandon.
Mr. Trump was interested in doing just that, Mr. Lutnick said.
He wanted to eject Canada out of an intelligence-sharing group known as the Five Eyes that also includes Britain, Australia and New Zealand.
He wanted to tear up the Great Lakes agreements and conventions between the two nations that lay out how they share and manage Lakes Superior, Huron, Erie and Ontario.
And he is also reviewing military cooperation between the two countries, particularly the North American Aerospace Defense Command.

4 March – TARIFF TUESDAY – except it wasn’t

Trump triggers trade war with tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico

Andrew Coyne: Donald Trump is trying to destroy Canada
Donald Trump does not have any legitimate issue he wishes to raise with Canada, nor any sort of concrete demand of us. The tariffs are intended, purely and simply, to harm us.
“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that will make it easier to annex us.”
After all the pretexts, after all the fake grievances – migrants, fentanyl, trade deficits, banks – there is no longer any doubt. After months of attempting to mollify Donald Trump, only to be struck by the same 25-per-cent, across-the-board tariff first announced in November, the Prime Minister at last saw no reason not to lay out the reality of our situation in the starkest possible terms.
The President of the United States is trying to destroy us.
This is not a trade war. Mr. Trump does not have any legitimate issue he wishes to raise with us, using the tariff to impress upon us how serious he is. It is not a negotiation, in which each side brings something to the table it is willing to trade for something else. But neither can it even be dignified as extortion. The tariff is not intended to extract concessions from us. If it were, we would have heard some sort of concrete demand from him by now. It is intended, purely and simply, to harm us.

Watch Trudeau speak directly to Trump during blistering speech
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau outlined how his country will respond to the blanket 25 percent tariffs President Trump imposed on Canada and Mexico.
Trudeau outlines how Canada will fight 25% U.S. tariffs
Federal government, provinces expected to roll out a slew of retaliatory measures Tuesday
Trudeau to Trump: You’re a smart guy. But this is a ‘very dumb’ thing to do.’ Live trade war updates – CTV.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau addressing the country from Ottawa.
Trudeau has already announced retaliatory tariffs on $30 billion worth of American goods.
“There are no winners in a trade war,” Trudeau says.
Alberta premier slams U.S. tariffs as ‘foolish,’ but energy retaliation off the table
(National Newswatch) Smith said she and her United Conservative government supports the federal government’s response and will announce its own response plan Wednesday.
“These tariffs will hurt the American people, driving up costs for fuel, food, vehicles, housing and many other products. They will also cost hundreds of thousands of American and Canadian jobs,” she said.
Smith reiterated that Canada must work to tear down provincial trade barriers, build pipelines, beef up military spending and strengthen trade ties with other allies.
Speaking to American network CNBC, Smith said the province would not impose counter tariffs on energy exports, calling it an essential product for American consumers and businesses.
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said Smith’s approach to diplomacy failed and he criticized the premier for waiting until now to craft a plan to deal with a trade war she should have been prepared for.
“She thought her balls-and-parties tour of Mar-a-Lago and Washington D.C. would get Albertans a reprieve from devastating tariffs that will wreak havoc on our jobs, our industries and our way of life,” he said in a statement.

3 March
Canada ready to hit back at Trump’s tariffs
Ontario premier warns Trump: “I will do everything, including cut off their energy.”
States that will feel Ottawa’s retaliation include Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and many more that have Republican leadership and where voters helped bring Trump to power on his promise to reduce their cost of living. One government source said potential tariff targets include coffee from House Speaker Mike Johnson’s home state of Louisiana, along with anything from Pennsylvania, a key swing state that turned the election for Trump.

1-2 March
Canada PM Trudeau says protecting independence is his priority in talks with King Charles
(Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his priority in talks with King Charles on Monday will be protecting his country’s sovereignty after U.S. President Donald Trump recently suggested making Canada the 51st U.S. state.
Trudeau said nothing is more important to his citizens than “standing up for our sovereignty and our independence”, ahead of the meeting with Charles, who is Canada’s head of state.
Trudeau to meet with King Charles as Buckingham Palace remains mum on Trump’s annexation threat
As Buckingham Palace remains quiet on U.S. President Donald Trump’s persistent attacks on Canadian sovereignty, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to have an audience with King Charles III on Monday, during which that issue is expected to be a priority discussion.
… When asked by CTV News about the ramped-up rhetoric, King Charles refused to weigh in.
“I hope this email finds you well,” wrote a Buckingham Palace royal communications official, in an email to CTV News on Friday. “This is not something we would comment on.”
While King Charles is the Head of State, according to the Statute of Westminster, the monarch can only act on advice of the minister of each dominion, which for Canada is Trudeau.

27 February
Feeling ‘Slapped Across the Face by Trump,’ Canadians Say They’ll Skip U.S. Trips
Last year, Canadians visiting the United States were responsible for $20.5 billion in spending. Some are now changing their travel plans as the neighboring nations battle over trade.
(NYT) In a speech this month, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, clearly annoyed by import tariffs levied by President Trump and his threats of making Canada “the 51st state,” suggested that Canadians might act individually to respond to the affronts.
“Now is also the time to choose Canada,” Mr. Trudeau said, adding, “It might mean changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites and tourist destinations our great country has to offer.”
In the weeks since, it appears that at least some Canadian citizens are taking his directive seriously.
Amid Trump’s threats, Quebecers changing travel plans could cost U.S. $3B
By Harry North
According to the survey by the Québec Tourism Industry Alliance:
One in five Quebecers had planned to travel to the U.S. in 2025;
Of them, 45 per cent have already cancelled or are reconsidering;
Among those scrapping their U.S. trips, 49 per cent plan to vacation in Quebec instead;
An estimated $1.5 billion in additional tourism revenue is expected to flow into Quebec.
(Montreal Gazette) Nearly half of Quebecers who had planned trips to the U.S. in 2025 have either cancelled or are reconsidering, according to findings announced Thursday by the Québec Tourism Industry Alliance. The fallout could lead to as much as $3 billion being pulled back from U.S. trips as vacationers rethink where they spend their travel dollars.

26 February
Navarro dismisses report that he wants Canada ousted from Five Eyes
(The Hill) Peter Navarro, a senior counselor for trade and manufacturing for the Trump administration, may want Canada to be ousted from the Five Eyes intelligence alliance over its resistance to President Trump’s tariff plan, though he later dismissed the idea to reporters.
The idea to oust Canada from the intelligence network was first reported by the Financial Times, citing people familiar with Navarro’s efforts in the Trump administration.
People familiar with the situation said Navarro, a close Trump ally, thinks the U.S. should be increasing pressure on Canada by removing it from Five Eyes, the Times reported.

22 February
‘Canadian Caper’ participants saddened by frayed Canada-U.S. relations
“There were a few hiccups here and there, but we were always very close. It staggers me to see the turn it’s taken.”
By Blair Crawford
(Ottawa Citizen) It breaks Kathleen Stafford’s heart to think about the current tense relations between Canada and the United States.
Forty-five years ago, Stafford and her husband, Joseph, were among a handful of Americans spirited out of Iran with the help of Ambassador Ken Taylor and Canada’s diplomatic staff in Tehran. The “Canadian Caper” made headlines around the world and was later dramatized in the 2012 Oscar-winning film Argo.
But U.S. President Donald Trump’s talk of a trade war, insults that Canada “isn’t a real country” and repeated claims that Canada will become “the 51st state” threaten to fracture that once-strong relationship.

21-22 February
The political backdrop of 4 Nations tournament was hard to ignore
Canadian fans get a moment of catharsis after months of Trump’s threats and taunts
(CBC) In the months leading up to the faceoff, U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened numerous tariffs on Canada and continually talked about making the country the “51st state.” Trump’s taunts only spurred what is already considered a fierce rivalry, leading to fans jeering anthems, a fight-filled first game and shots fired on social media.
“[The Canadian players] would have had friends and family in Canada whose lives — their financial well-being — is going to feel an effect if and when heavy tariffs dropped,” Joyce said.
Trudeau takes swipe at Trump after Canada’s 4 Nations victory over the U.S.
It was the 51st U.S. state 3, Canada’s 11th province 2.
“You can’t take our country — and you can’t take our game,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau posted on X in a cross-border callback to President Donald Trump’s chatter about turning one of the United States’ closest allies into the 51st state.
(CTV) When they played “O Canada” for the second time, there were no American fans left in the arena to boo.
Instead, the Canadian team stood at the blue line, arm in arm, player and coach, wearing their championship hats while the maple leaf flag was lowered behind the 4 Nations Face-Off trophy and the national anthem reverberated across the Americans’ home ice. The fans who remained, many of them in their red Team Canada jerseys, sang along.
Connor McDavid scored at 8:18 of overtime to give Canada a 3-2 victory over the United States on Thursday night as the North American rivals turned what had been a tune-up for the 2026 Olympics into a geopolitical brawl over anthems and annexation as much as international hockey supremacy.

20 February
Stephen Harper: This is the moment to make Canada a proud and serious country again
These are dark days, but they will pass. Let us see this challenge as the opportunity for Canada to embark on a voyage of urgent national renewal.
… We should remain a partner of the United States, yes, but also be capable of independent action.
Finally, we must avoid indulging in our worst instincts. Bashing the United States or baiting President Trump, however emotionally satisfying, is beneath us. We must show respect and maintain a long-term perspective. But so too must we approach the coming negotiations with steely professionalism and quiet self-confidence.

19 February
Lloyd Axworthy: In facing an imperialist neighbour, Ukraine offers a cautionary tale for Canada
(Globe & Mail) What was once dismissed as a joke or a negotiating tactic is beginning to look disturbingly real. Donald Trump wants Canada – not for our social-safety net, the Charter of Rights and Freedoms or our history of cultural tolerance, but for our resources: our minerals, water, oil and Arctic region.
How far will he go? We already know he’s wielding tariffs as a weapon. We’ve seen his daily insults directed at our leaders, his mockery of our national identity – all well-worn techniques of ambitious autocrats.
We should also brace for a more insidious threat: election interference. With his tech-obsessed ally Elon Musk, Mr. Trump will likely work to manipulate our upcoming election, amplifying far-right candidates and undermining trust in our democratic system. Compared to what these two could unleash, past Russian and Chinese meddling might seem amateurish, just softening us up for the kill.
While the immediate focus is on the tariff war, the larger issue at stake is nothing less than Canada’s survival as an independent state. We must prepare our democracy to withstand the onslaught, and to do that, we should look to Ukraine – as a warning.

18 February
Trump’s musings on ‘very large faucet’ in Canada part of looming water crisis, say researchers
Aging infrastructure and changing climate could put pressure on long-standing treaties
(CBC) …when Donald Trump, as the Republican presidential nominee, made comments in September 2024 about there being a “very large faucet” that could be turned on to drain water from Canada to help with American water shortages, the ears of Canadian hydrologists perked up.
… For water experts, there’s worry that climate change and shifting U.S. policies could put pressure on long-standing cross-border water agreements.
And century-old infrastructure isn’t helping matters.
Take, for instance, failed siphons in Montana, where water is diverted from the St. Mary River through northern Montana and across southern Alberta, supplying essential water for some Canadian agricultural operators and an Alberta community near the border. Repairs on those siphons are now facing a U.S. federal funding pause under an executive order.
University of Saskatchewan water scientist John Pomeroy says Canada relies on its fresh water for energy, agriculture and industry, and with growing shortages and climate change affecting water supply, Canada should preserve its water for domestic use. …he’s very concerned about where this issue is heading for three reasons.
First, water management regimes in North America are not fulfilling the requirements they need for sustainable water supply and management for ecosystems and people, he said.
“Second, rapid climate change, which is bringing greater extremes of drought and floods and loss of snow and glaciers in high mountains, is changing the basic calculus on which we base our water management,” Pomeroy said.
“Third, the idea of conflict, that one country can take another country’s water resources and divert arbitrarily for its own means.…
“We’re breaking down a century of co-operation to solve these problems. When those three come together, then you can see the ingredients for a continental disaster.”

13 February
Chrystia Freeland: Retaliation Against Canada Won’t Work This Time
(NYT Opinion) A 25 percent tariff on Canadian aluminum is an act of self-harm — economic self-mutilation — by the United States.
President Trump’s announcement on Monday that he was raising tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum to 25 percent was all too familiar to Canadians, and to me, personally.
Some Americans may feel this “might makes right” approach suits the current economic situation. The problem is that it will hurt America’s economy, too. Higher costs for supplies of steel and aluminum will hurt the very manufacturers and consumers President Trump claims to support.
… Mr. Trump may not care much about the objections of people in Canada — or Mexico or the European Union or South Korea — but he does care about American workers and businesses. If exporters feeling the squeeze from tit-for-tat tariffs start calling the White House, the pressure on the administration to reverse course will grow. …
Such pushback led to the lifting of the tariffs on Canada in 2019 and it will work again now. All the steel- and aluminum-producing countries affected by these tariffs should impose dollar-for-dollar retaliation. We need to choose our targets with care. One hundred percent tariffs on Teslas, imposed by every country in the world, would be a good place to start.

12 February
White House official says he ‘never agreed’ Canada won’t be 51st state in meeting with premiers
Premiers hail ‘constructive’ meeting as they lobby against tariffs
Canada’s premiers in Washington on mission to push back against Trump’s tariff threat
The diplomatic push marks the first time all 13 premiers have travelled to the American capital together — and reflects the rising alarm among Canadians about Trump’s unpredictable tariff strategy.

11 February
Jeremy Kinsman: Canada’s Fork in the Road
(Policy) … Canada suddenly has gained stature from its patriotic resistance to Trump’s denigration, hostility, and deluge of lies. Canadians are united as never before according to Angus Reid polling. For Canadian leaders, and citizens, there is now the opportunity to make real what a previous government’s “Third Option” intended in 1972 in reaction to President Nixon’s imposition of punishing tariffs: to “develop and strengthen the Canadian economy and other aspects of its national life and in the process reduce the Canadian vulnerability.”
We need bravery among our premiers to break down trade and other internal barriers. We do need to come down harder on fentanyl activity, and its export by sea, and fix our laws to enable tracking of dark money and firm prosecution of the criminals involved.
Diversification of international interdependencies will not happen overnight, but will come. An early emphasis should be on concertation with Nordic Arctic partners on shared infrastructure and other projects. In a more reasonable relationship, the U.S. could cooperate with Canada in reviving our Arctic partnership in security, and maritime infrastructure, but it is hard to contemplate partnership when the US head of state continuously threatens to annex Canada.

Trudeau warns Vance about impact of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs
Justin Trudeau brought up the impact of tariffs in U.S. vice-president’s home state
(CBC) Trudeau mentioned the impact of tariffs on Ohio to Vance, a Canadian official said. The state is America’s biggest exporter sending more than $21 billion US in goods to Canada in 2023, according to the U.S. Trade Representative. If Canada retaliates, its steel, cars, plastics, iron and plane exports could be hit with counter tariffs.
The prime minister didn’t announce specific retaliatory measures on Tuesday, but his government has warned that a trade war could drive up consumer prices and hurt the economy south of the border.
The federal government will work with the Trump administration over the coming weeks, Trudeau said, to make sure it understands the impact the levies would have on both the U.S. and Canada.

10 February
Trump signs order imposing 25% tariffs on aluminum, steel
(Montreal Gazette) The tariffs almost immediately drew criticism from Canada, the largest source of steel imports. Candace Laing, president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce,…said the United States should remove tariffs on those industries so it can benefit from the expected job growth and GDP increase that would come with fewer trade barriers. Laing said the tariff announcement should galvanize Canada’s political parties to reconvene Parliament and “focus on what’s within our control.”
Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne said steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada are “totally unjustified.” He said Canadian steel and aluminum support key industries in the United States, including defence, shipbuilding, energy and automotive. Champagne said the government is consulting with international partners and promised a “clear and calibrated” response.
In 2023, Canada exported more than $20 billion worth of iron and steel to the U.S. and $15.2 billion worth of aluminum.
While U.S. manufacturers could face supply chain disruptions and cost increases, [McGill University supply chain management professor Saibal] Ray stressed the impact the tariffs could also have on rural Quebec towns that rely on aluminum plants for their economy. The aluminum sector accounts for nearly 40,000 jobs across Quebec, the bulk of which are with the more than 1,700 processing companies operating in the province. There are also eight aluminum smelters in the province, located in the Capitale-Nationale, Centre-du-Québec, Côte-Nord, Montérégie and Saguenay—Lac-St-Jean regions. “The whole economy of many of these small towns is based on the aluminum plant that is there,” Ray said, “so if they have to start reducing production, it could have a very, very big impact on the whole town.”
Trump is giving the steel industry everything it wants
The industry wants fewer regulations, more tariffs, and an end to “unfair” trade rules. Trump plans to deliver
(Quartz) While most American businesses have cautioned that tariffs — like those set to hit Canada and Mexico next month and the 10% duties already in effect on Chinese imports — will hurt their profit margins, the steel industry supports them.
Take Trump seriously, but not ‘at his word’ |
Aaron Rand and Bill Brownstein host John Parisella
(The Corner Booth) There’s a silver lining to U.S. president Donald Trump’s tariff threats: Canadian unity. “In some ways, what he has done is he’s made us work together as I have never seen in a long time,” said John Parisella, referring the newly energized dialogue around inter-provincial trade in Canada.
Parisella, the former delegate-general of Quebec in New York, spoke to hosts Bill Brownstein and Aaron Rand about this historic moment in U.S.-Canada relations and how Canada can prepare for the worst. “Take (Trump) seriously, but don’t take him necessarily at his word. And have a plan: don’t just be reactive, be proactive. And our proactivity now has got to be on dealing with inter-provincial barriers, it’s got to be with the diversity of economic partners.”