Wednesday Night #2244

Welcome to the much-anticipated evening with Peter Berezin!

Webcast with [David Rosenberg] — Featuring Special Guest, Peter Berezin
A bull turned into an unrelenting bear. Peter sees the recession beginning in May but acknowledged that it may have already commenced. His earnings and multiple estimates suggest a 30% bear market in the S&P 500 — with downside risks. He is wary on China and sees the European bounce as a tactical trade with a three-to-six-month shelf life. As for credit, spreads are at risk of a big widening. So, what does he like? Staples, health care, utilities, Treasuries (especially later this year), gold, and the yen.
On March 7, Peter wrote
• We raised our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75% following the election last November. Today, we are reaffirming these odds. We expect a recession to most likely begin within the next three months.
• Although the metrics the NBER tracks to determine recession start dates still looked reasonably benign in January, more recent data suggest that the US economy is reaching stall speed.
• Conventional estimates understate the likely impact on economic activity from the trade war and DOGE cuts. This implies that growth will slow more than expected.
• The pickup in manufacturing activity outside the US will not last because it has been largely driven by the front-running of import purchases ahead of tariffs.
• One can debate whether increased fiscal spending in Europe will boost growth over the medium-to-long-term, but in the near term, the prospect of larger budget deficits has led to a tightening of financial conditions via higher bond yields and a stronger euro.
• Our MacroQuant model further cut its recommended allocation to equities in the first few days of March. Consistent with our own subjective view, it is now underweight stocks.
Bottom Line: The US economy is set to enter a recession within the next few months. Stay underweight equities and overweight cash. Look to increase fixed-income duration exposure over the coming months. The euro is likely to strengthen and European stocks should outperform US stocks over the next month or so, but these trends will reverse by the middle of this year.
Three days earlier Mohamed A. El-Erian opined US Recession Odds Are Becoming Unsettlingly High – It’s only a matter of time before economists start slashing growth forecasts for the American economy.
Possibly for discussion
Trump’s Tariffs Have Sown Uncertainty. That Might Be the Point.
President Trump’s economic advisers have used a hodgepodge of messages to justify starting trade wars that are spooking markets.
Trump, Bitcoin, and the Future of the Dollar
Carla Norrlöf
By launching new trade wars and ordering the creation of a Bitcoin reserve, Donald Trump is assuming that US trade partners will pay any price to maintain access to the American market. But if he is wrong about that, the dominance of the US dollar, and all the advantages it confers, could be lost indefinitely.
Did we ever see any follow-up to this?
Trump Says He’s Going To Check If ‘Somebody Stole’ Fort Knox $400 Billion Gold Supply.
President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and head of the powerful Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), elevated decades-old conspiracies about the state of the U.S. government’s gold reserve at Fort Knox over the last two weeks, as Trump vowed to take a rare look inside the tightly guarded facility.
Trump’s Crypto Reserve Is Really Happening: the president [has] signed an executive order…creating both a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and a “Digital Asset Stockpile” made up of different kinds of cryptocurrencies. The bitcoin stockpile, which presumably will be the larger of the two, amounts to “a virtual Fort Knox for digital gold.”

Canada Federal Liberals
Hard to believe that Mark Carney became Canada’s Prime Minister only last Friday. The swearing-in ceremony was mercifully short given the reduced size of the Cabinet.
Mélanie Joly was absent at the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting: Mélanie Joly Holds Closing News Conference (CPAC video) in Charlevoix, Que.
Mr. Carney has been very busy and so far, we applaud his actions -even if he did appear at the Montreal St. Patrick’s parade without wearing a trace of green. The announcement (Canada must weigh risk Trump blocks software upgrades for F-35s: former official) that Canada is reviewing the F-35 purchase plans to buy an alternative aircraft that is more cost effective is welcome news. His quick trip to France and England, recognizing the importance of the two founding nations, followed by the stopover in Iqaluit where he announced new infrastructure investments, increased year-round Canadian military presence in the Arctic, and a new Australian-developed radar system to detect incoming missiles – all good!  Canada’s show of power over its Arctic sovereignty.

Ukraine
The saga of Putin’s War and Trump’s attempt to negotiate a peace may continue for many moons.
However, most recently:
Zelensky says lasting peace achievable this year after he and Trump hail ‘positive’ call
in sharp contrast to this earlier piece
So bold are Putin’s ceasefire demands, it’s hard to believe he is entirely serious
The extraordinary demands of the Russian leader to weaken Ukraine would make a mockery of any peace deal

Welcome Home! NASA’s SpaceX Crew-9 Back on Earth After Science Mission
We watched the successful splashdown on Tuesday. It was a picture-perfect day with a calm sea and the entire operation went like clockwork. We particularly enjoyed watching the pod of dolphins who celebrated around the fast boats and Dragon spacecraft as they prepared for hoisting aboard the recovery ship. We can only imagine the pleasure that Butch Wilmore and Suni William are taking in their first baths/showers. Imagine leaving home for an 8-day trip and not returning for 9 months!

Kennedy Files Shed Light on Spycraft, but Not Assassination
In response to an order from Trump  tens of thousands of pages about the JFK assassination were released on Tuesday.  According to the NYT, “Between them, the two batches of documents made public on Tuesday came to about 63,400 pages, according to the National Archives, though it was unclear how many of those files were actually new, or had previously been released in part or in whole, or if there still could be more released on Wednesday. Officials have said 99 percent of the government’s records relating — sometimes very tangentially — to the Kennedy assassination were already public.”

The Donald Trump 2.0 regime continues to dominate our every waking hour, whether international peace talk ‘negotiations’ with Putin (Trump fails to get Putin to stop the shooting) for the fate of Ukraine, support for Israel‘s outrageous actions and on-going threats to Gaza’s future (now that the odious Ben Gvir has returned to Cabinet), or deteriorating relations with Canada, Mexico and other allies.
While imposition of Tariffs without any coherence is worrisome, we are concerned by the impact of the ruthless -and senseless- decimation of departments and agencies of the U.S. government; declaration of war on Education, Foreign aid, Health and the Environment.
Each target affects multiple communities, but what we are most concerned about at present is the scientific impact of Trump’s cuts to NOAA and the National Weather Service. It is easy to overlook the importance of accurate weather predictions to communities (think of the farmers, firefighters, park rangers!) affected by drought, floods, wildfires, avalanches and storms of all kinds.
As NOAA braces for more cuts, scientists say public safety is at risk
Meteorologists and climate scientists are raising alarms about major cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, saying they will harm the country’s ability to forecast and respond to major weather events and put lives at risk
How Trump is Gutting Your Weather Reports
The great American thunderhead looms over us all, swirling, spiraling, spitting torrents of biblical hellfire and brimstone—hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, the whole catastrophic catalog. The skies are alive with rage. But don’t worry, folks, because President Donald J. Trump—America’s most accomplished real estate conman and Twitter troll—has a plan: make the weather great again by defunding the people who predict it!

The Ultimate Trump Story
The president’s dangerous tendencies are now magnifying one another in a uniquely risky way.
Donald Trump’s most dangerous tendencies—his hatred of immigrants; his disdain for the legal process; his willingness to push the boundaries of executive authority; and, newly, his appetite for going to war with the courts—are magnifying one another in a uniquely risky way.

Varia
The View From Greenland a gorgeous photo essay about the largest island in the world (that isn’t a continent) and a prime target for the greedy Donald Trump.
Voice of America channels fall silent as Trump administration guts agency and cancels contracts
Even top editors at VOA have been ordered to stop working, so employees expect the broadcaster’s worldwide news coverage to grind to a halt
“The Voice of America has been silenced, at least for now.”
The growing legend of the missing Oval Office ivy
(WaPo) Things have been disappearing in Washington. Jobs are being eliminated. Entire agencies are on the brink. Black Lives Matter Plaza was jackhammered away. USAID documents were ordered to be shredded. And, as federal buildings go up for sale, will government artwork be lost in the shuffle?
In the commotion of Donald Trump’s return to office, it’s easy to overlook a smaller thing that has vanished: the Swedish ivy plant in the Oval Office.
Flags, figurines and gold everywhere: Trump transforms the Oval Office into a gilded gallery
(CNN) …in keeping with the style he has adhered to for decades, there is gold everywhere: new gold vermeil figurines on the mantle and medallions on the fireplace, gold eagles on the side tables, gilded Rococo mirrors on the doors, and, nestled in the pediments above the doorways, diminutive gold cherubs shipped in from Mar-a-Lago. Even the remote control for the television down the hall is wrapped in gilt.
Nobody knows why this snowy owl is orange
Experts say it could be a genetic mutation, an accident, or the work of ‘nefarious miscreants’

Reminders

Events
Saturday, March 22
2-3:30 pm
Westmount Public Library
Diana Bruno, dictionary writer, will tell you if cancer is easier the second time around, about becoming fluent in Medicalese while navigating the healthcare system, and getting her active life back.
Conférence | Lecture – Apart From Cancer, I’m Perfectly Healthy, and…

Tuesday, March 25, 3 pm
The Indo-Pacific: Canadian and Indian Perspectives –
The Montreal branch of the Canadian International Council is pleased to invite you to this discussion with Indian journalist and scholar C. Raja Mohan, who will present an Indian perspective on this important relationship for both countries.
Room 232, Leacock Building, McGill University
Canada’s government is counting on its Indo-Pacific strategy as a key piece of its foreign policy approach. At this moment of change, with an election imminent, is there an opening that could lead to a thaw in relations? What is the potential for resetting our diplomatic relations and expanding trade with this growing giant?
The event will be moderated by T.V. Paul, Distinguished James McGill Professor in Political Science, McGill University, with discussants Vincent Rigby, Slater Family Professor of Practice, Max Bell School of Public Policy, McGill University; Vina Nadjibulla, Vice President, Research & Strategy, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; and Christopher Neal, Secretary, Canadian International Council, Montreal Branch.

Andrew Caddell should join us for the latter part of the evening to discuss the events leading up to his column this week: IS QUEBEC BECOMING AN AUTHORITARIAN “NATION” ?
“Recently, I was targeted by an anonymous complainant for Facebook posts defending the rights of English Quebecers. At the end of December, I was attacked with insults like “raciste,” “Rhodesien,” “KKKanada,” and “supremaciste.”
Anyone who knows me would attest I am none of those things. I replied I am a francophile with roots back to 1640, who chose to return to Quebec from Ottawa in 2020. I noted my work on Kamouraska town council is entirely in French. As the insults escalated, I ramped up my replies with a few choice words. After a few days, I forgot about it.”
Here is the story in The Gazette
Quebec investigates anglo rights activist Andrew Caddell over profane Facebook comments
Quebec’s Municipal Commission is investigating Andrew Caddell, a Kamouraska councillor and president of the Task Force on Linguistic Policy, over allegedly profane and disrespectful comments made during a heated Facebook exchange about anglophone rights. Caddell, a vocal opponent of Bill 96, responded aggressively to online critics…  The commission, which enforces municipal ethics, cited potential violations of Kamouraska’s code of conduct and could fine or suspend Caddell. He argues that his comments were personal and unrelated to his municipal role, expressing concern about the political motives behind the investigation. A public hearing will be held, though no date has been set.

Read and/or listen
As Trump menaces us in Canada, we have a question for Britain: when will you stand up to him?
Jennifer Welsh, director of the McGill Max Bell School of Public Policy
The UK has long benefited from its Commonwealth. Though we will take steps to ensure our survival, the silence from London is deafening
Sen. Chris Murphy – Dems Need to Take More Risks & Make Gov’t Work Again | The Daily Show
Buy, Borrow, Die How to be a billionaire and pay no taxes
By Rogé Karma
America’s superrich have always found ways to avoid paying taxes, but in recent years, they’ve discovered what might be the mother of all loopholes. It’s a three-step process called “Buy, Borrow, Die,” and it allows people to amass a huge fortune, spend as much of it as they want, and pass the rest—untaxed—on to their heirs.
The Red Passport podcast Special Guest Joe Clark on Canada’s Lost Influence & the Path Forward/
Jeremy Kinsman: This week, Louise Blais and I had a wide-ranging conversation with former Prime Minister and long-standing Foreign Minister Joe Clark. We covered the better times of a more positive world, not elegiacally, but in search of ways to get past this vexed era of international bullying. In Canada, we agreed that positive and transparent leadership is something Canadians will insist on, in reducing our vulnerabilities. In the world, our venerable commitment to competent humanism is needed now more than ever. But Canada will come out of the current chaos stronger than ever.
This dates back to mid-January. Will try to follow up for further information.
Academic Freedom at Canadian Universities Threatened as Schools Police Speech on Gaza, Canadian Organization for Faculty Associations Warns
Association representing 70,000 academic professionals says teachers and students are facing repercussions for speaking out about Gaza
by Rumneek Johal, Reporter