U.S.-China relations January 2025-

Delusions of Détente
Why America and China Will Be Enduring Rivals

Underestimating China
Why America Needs a New Strategy of Allied Scale to Offset Beijing’s Enduring Advantages
Kurt M. Campbell and Rush Doshi
(Foreign Affairs May/June 2025) … [T]he United States’ legacy approach to alliances will no longer suffice. … To achieve scale, Washington must transform its alliance architecture from a collection of managed relationships to a platform for integrated and pooled capacity building across the military, economic, and technological domains. In practical terms, that might mean Japan and Korea help build American ships and Taiwan builds American semiconductor plants while the United States shares its best military technology with allies, and all come together to pool their markets behind a shared tariff or regulatory wall erected against China. This kind of coherent and interoperable bloc, with the United States at its core, would generate aggregate advantages that China cannot match alone.
But such an approach demands a fundamental reorientation, from command-and-control diplomacy to a new capacity-centric statecraft. This radical shift in how the United States builds and wields power is essential in a world where it no longer has the singular advantage of scale. As China plays for time and mass, the United States and its partners must play for cohesion and collective leverage. …
Not every large country becomes a great power. Size refers to dimensions; scale is the ability to use size to generate efficiency and productivity and thereby outcompete rivals. Small states can become world-class by maximizing efficiency on a small foundation, but when large states run that playbook on a much larger foundation, they can remake the world. Broader internal markets can drive down costs, enabling companies to outcompete others around the world. Bigger populations create deeper pools of talent and research. Large states are less reliant on trade, which gives them greater resilience. And they can field larger militaries.

25 April
Bloomberg Nightly newsletter: Trump launched his trade war on China and then promptly warned Beijing not to retaliate. Chinese leader Xi Jinping ignored his plea and instead responded with retaliatory levies. Escalation ensued.
Now, after weeks of Trump urging Xi to come to the table (replete with unrequited entreaties for a phone call), China has quietly removed a few tariffs of its own. Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies in Shanghai and an adviser to China’s Foreign Ministry, contends Trump misjudged the potency of US economic pressure, leaving him unprepared for the trade war he started.
“The mainstream narrative within the Trump team is that because the Chinese economy is bad, if the US plays the tariff card, then China will have no choice but to surrender,” Wu said. “But surprisingly to them China didn’t collapse and surrender.”

22 April
Trump says China tariffs will drop ‘substantially – but it won’t be zero’
US president says tariffs on imported goods will come down from 145% rate but insists ‘we’re doing fine with China’
(The Guardian) Donald Trump said during a White House news conference that high tariffs on goods from China will “come down substantially, but it won’t be zero”.
Trump’s remarks were in response to earlier comments on Tuesday by treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who said that the high tariffs were unsustainable and that he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

21 April
China warns countries against striking trade deals with US at its expense
China’s warning comes as Sino-US trade war escalates
US pressures nations to reduce trade with China, a report says
China says U.S. is abusing tariffs on all trading partners
ASEAN caught in crossfire of Sino-U.S. trade row
(Reuters) – China on Monday [21 April] accused Washington of abusing tariffs and warned countries against striking a broader economic deal with the United States at its expense, ratcheting up its rhetoric in a spiralling trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
Beijing will firmly oppose any party striking a deal at China’s expense and “will take countermeasures in a resolute and reciprocal manner,” its Commerce Ministry said.

20 April
Boeing’s self-inflicted damage leaves it vulnerable in trade war as China halts delivery of company’s jets
Last week, China, the world’s most dynamic growth market for commercial aircraft, halted delivery of all Boeing jets ordered by Chinese airlines in response to the 145-per-cent tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Chinese goods imported into the U.S.
The move affects about 130 Boeing aircraft committed to Chinese airlines – about 160 planes if Hong Kong is included. Each of the company’s best-selling Max 9 passenger airplanes costs nearly US$130-million, so the potential financial hit is very real.
Boeing can hardly afford the blow. Almost 70 per cent of its sales of commercial aircraft were to carriers outside the U.S., and China is the largest global market for commercial airline purchases. The company projected that Chinese airlines would buy almost 9,000 planes in the next 20 years. If Boeing is shut out of the market, the spoils will go to its main global competitor, Airbus.
20 July 2024
China is disrupting the Boeing-Airbus duopoly. It’s a dangerous situation

18 April
US forges ahead with plans for steep port fees on China-built vessels
New rules part of effort to revive US shipbuilding, but penalties scaled back after warnings about impact on consumers
The Trump administration is forging ahead with plans to charge steep fees on Chinese-built ships for stopping at US ports in an effort to revive its shipbuilding industry, but scaled back the penalties after warnings about the impact on consumers.
The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) significantly watered down original plans from February, under which vessels built in China would be charged $3.5m (£2.6m) each time they docked at a US port. The US and China are locked in a trade war.
… Under the new rules, Chinese-linked ships will be charged fees linked to the weight of their cargo or the number of containers on board, rather than according to how many US ports they call at.

16 April
Xi Urges ‘Asian Family’ Unity as Trump Seeks to Confine China
(Bloomberg) Chinese President Xi Jinping promoted the idea of an “Asian family” and called for regional unity during a tour of Southeast Asia, in an apparent effort to counter US pressure on nations to limit trade ties with Beijing.
Xi emphasized solidarity in a speech, saying “China and Malaysia will stand with countries in the region to combat the undercurrents of geopolitical and bloc-based confrontation” and “Together we will safeguard the bright prospects of our Asian family.”
“https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-16/are-the-us-and-china-headed-to-war-watch-for-these-5-signs”>Five Signs That the US and China Will Go to War
While the two nations fight it out on trade, less-noticed concerns are taking place in cyberspace, near Taiwan and at Chinese shipyards.

14 April
China may be stunned by Trump’s lack of caution and understanding: ex-diplomat Kerry Brown
King’s College, London professor says he ‘cannot think of a worse tactic’ than threatening Beijing and presenting ‘zero-sum’ options
(SCMP/MSN) …the Chinese must be stunned by the lack of caution and understanding that he has of how China negotiates. I cannot think of a worse tactic than threatening and presenting China with zero-sum options. This is a country, after all, with such a strong narrative in its head of never again being victimised and bullied, that everything Trump is doing is only likely to make China stand its ground even more.
Things are in an escalation of “face” where neither side has easy ramps now to back down. I think China’s appetite for this is stronger than the US’. As for China being isolated, because of the unilateral way that Trump has slapped tariffs on everyone, it seems more that the US is isolated now rather than the other way around.
A big adverse economic impact is clearly a significant issue. China has never known a time in the last half-century when its economy was going into recession. But I think the main impact will be to stoke up Chinese nationalism, and in the short to medium term at least give the Xi [Jinping] leadership a chance to show it standing up against US bullying and intemperance. America under Trump 2 is a historic opportunity for China to really become a global power. Whether they can and want to take that is another matter. But so far, Trump has been delivering for them, almost every day.

10-13 April
Trump Signals New Tariffs on Chips, Calling Exclusions Temporary
On Friday, the administration carved out an exception for a variety of electronics from the steep taxes now applied to Chinese imports.
(NYT) President Trump signaled on Sunday that he would pursue new tariffs on the powerful computer chips inside smartphones and other technologies, just two days after his administration excluded a variety of electronics from the steep import taxes recently applied on goods arriving from China.
The push came as Mr. Trump’s top economic advisers scrambled to explain their shifting strategy, after having insisted for weeks that they would shield no company or industry from any of the fees they have levied in a bid to reset U.S. trade relationships.
China Halts Critical Exports as Trade War Intensifies
Beijing has suspended exports of certain rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial for the world’s car, semiconductor and aerospace industries.
(NYT) China has suspended exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, threatening to choke off supplies of components central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world.
Shipments of the magnets, essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles, have been halted at many Chinese ports while the Chinese government drafts a new regulatory system. Once in place, the new system could permanently prevent supplies from reaching certain companies, including American military contractors.
Trump Showed His Pain Point in His Standoff With China
Xi Jinping, who rules with absolute authority, has shown he is willing to let the Chinese people endure hardship. President Trump revealed he has limits.
(NYT) President Trump didn’t seem to mind as his worldwide tariffs set off stock market sell-offs and wiped out trillions of dollars in wealth.
…he blinked on Wednesday afternoon in the face of financial turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields that could shake the dominant position of the dollar and the foundation of the U.S. economy. And late Friday, Mr. Trump exempted smartphones, computers, chips and other electronics from some of his tariffs on China.
By pausing some tariffs for dozens of countries for 90 days and exempting electronics from some of his tariffs, he also gave away something to his main rival, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with whom he has engaged in a game of chicken that risks decoupling the world’s two biggest economies and turning the global economic order upside down.
This U.S.-China trade war might not end well
Don’t look for Beijing to compromise this time.
(WaPo Editorial Board) President Donald Trump’s climbdown from his sweeping and ill-considered worldwide tariffs brought temporary relief to global markets on Wednesday. But his escalating import levies against China, and Beijing’s determination to fight back, leave the world’s two largest economies locked in a potentially devastating trade war. Unless this ends quickly, both economies could be damaged, and collateral harm could be done to supply chains and trade ties across Asia and the world.
China ‘not afraid,’ Xi says, as Beijing raises tariffs on U.S. goods to 125 per cent
James Griffiths, Asia correspondent
(Globe & Mail) Chinese leader Xi Jinping made his first public comments Friday amid an escalating trade war with the United States, warning there can be no winner in such a conflict, even as Beijing ramped up tariffs on U.S. goods to 125 per cent.
Speaking to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in the Chinese capital, Mr. Xi said China is “not afraid” of challenges, and “no matter how the external environment changes, China will strengthen its confidence, maintain determination and focus on doing its own thing.”
Without naming the U.S., Mr. Xi called on the European Union to join China in resisting “unilateral bullying,” and noted the two economies account for “one-third of the world’s total economic volume.”
“There will be no winners in a tariff war, and going against the world will isolate oneself,” Mr. Xi said.
Xi Jinping has been preparing for Trump’s trade war for 12 years – it may not have been long enough
Chinese President Xi Jinping has pursued a policy of economic security and self-reliance, reducing his country’s exposure to the U.S. since taking office.
Trump and Xi Are Preparing for a War Nobody Wants
The US tariffs are aimed at boosting national security, but Trump is alienating allies he would need in any military conflict with China.
By Daniel Ten Kate
(Bloomberg) “The United States can no longer produce enough antibiotics to treat our sick,” Trump said in the White House Rose Garden on April 2. “If anything ever happened from a war standpoint, we wouldn’t be able to do it.”
If only he had stopped there, Trump would’ve been hard-pressed to find anyone who disagreed with him. Of all the varying reasons he’s given for the tariffs — balancing trade, generating revenue, creating leverage for deals — nearly everyone in Washington agrees on the need to restore the US manufacturing base to ensure self-reliance in the name of national defense.
But, as usual, Trump went much further. He quickly moved from pitching tariffs as a way to strengthen America in a potential war with China to imposing them on longstanding allies, sending global markets into a tailspin and threatening a severe economic blow to nations the US would need in any military conflict with the world’s second-largest economy.
Even after Trump announced a 90-day pause, it’s become clear that the US and China are reshaping the global economy to prepare for a war with each other that neither actually wants.

6-9 April
S&P 500 soars 7% after Trump announces 90-day pause on tariffs, raises taxes on China
Facing a global market meltdown, President Donald Trump on Wednesday abruptly backed down on his tariffs on most nations for 90 days but raised his tax rate on Chinese imports to 125%.
Trump Shock Pushes US and China Toward Decoupling Cliff Edge
(Bloomberg) The US and China are in a full-blown trade war, with tariffs and retaliatory measures causing a significant impact on global trade and economies.
The trade war is causing a decoupling of the two economies, with the US seeking to reduce its dependence on Chinese imports and China looking to diversify its trade relationships.
The ongoing trade tensions are expected to have far-reaching consequences, including a potential recession, job losses, and a decline in global trade volumes.
US to implement 104% tariff on China as Trump-imposed deadline passes
US president had threatened to impose extra levies unless China withdrew its 34% retaliatory tariffs today
China vows to ‘fight to the end’ against latest Trump tariff threat
Beijing accuses US of blackmail and adding a ‘mistake on top of a mistake’ as Wednesday deadline for latest levies looms
For Xi, China’s Strongman Leader, Ceding to Trump Is Not an Option
China sees little to gain in capitulating to President Trump’s tariff threats, labeling them “blackmail” and vowing to “fight to the end.”
(NYT) …behind the bravado is a more complicated set of realities for Mr. Xi that makes it politically and economically untenable to offer concessions to the country’s single largest trading partner and chief rival for global influence. With Mr. Trump also refusing to back down, a devastating trade war between the two largest economies may be inevitable — a showdown with painful consequences that will be felt across the world.
The dilemma for Mr. Xi is that looking weak is not an option, but hitting back risks further escalation.
China Just Turned Off U.S. Supplies Of Minerals Critical For Defense & Cleantech
The materials China just restricted aren’t random. They’re chosen with the precision of someone who’s read U.S. product spec sheets and defense procurement orders
(Clean Technica) In April 2025, while most of the world was clutching pearls over trade war tit-for-tat tariffs, China calmly walked over to the supply chain and yanked out a handful of critical bolts. The bolts are made of dysprosium, terbium, tungsten, indium and yttrium—the elements that don’t make headlines but without which your electric car doesn’t run, your fighter jet doesn’t fly, and your solar panels go from clean energy marvels to overpriced roofing tiles. They’re minerals that show up on obscure government risk registers right before wars start or cleantech projects get quietly cancelled.
“What China did wasn’t a ban, at least not in name. They called it export licensing. Sounds like something a trade lawyer might actually be excited about. But make no mistake: this was a surgical strike. They didn’t need to say no. They just needed to say “maybe later” to the right set of paperwork. These licenses give Beijing control over not just where these materials go, but how fast they go, in what quantity, and to which politically convenient customers.
The U.S.? Let’s just say Washington should get comfortable waiting behind the rope line. The licenses have to be applied for and the end use including country of final destination must be clearly spelled out. Licenses for end uses in the U.S. are unlikely to be approved. What’s astonishing is how predictable this all was. China has spent decades building its dominance over these supply chains, while the U.S. was busy outsourcing, divesting, and cheerfully ignoring every report that said, “Hey, maybe 90% dependence on a single country we keep starting trade wars with and rattling sabers at is a bad idea.”

4 April
Trump extends deadline to keep TikTok running in US
US President Donald Trump has granted TikTok a second 75-day extension to comply with a law that requires the hugely popular video app to either sell its US operation or face a ban in the country.
“We do not want TikTok to ‘go dark’,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We look forward to working with TikTok and China to close the Deal.” The platform is currently owned by Chinese company ByteDance.
Trump’s first extension was granted after he took office in January and was set to expire on Saturday.
The social media platform, which says it has more than 170 million users in the US, must close in the US under a law passed by Congress – unless a buyer is found.

China Hits Back at Trump With Tariffs, Limits on Key Exports
China retaliates against US tariffs with commensurate levies on all American goods and export controls on rare earths.
(Bloomberg) Tensions between the world’s biggest economies have worsened since Trump’s return to the White House. The US president has yet to speak with his Chinese counterpart more than two months after his inauguration.
China’s measures include a 34% tariff on all US imports, restrictions on exports of seven types of rare earths, and investigations into US companies.
Authorities in Beijing also announced other measures including:
Immediately restrict exports of seven types of rare earths
Launch anti-dumping probe into medical CT X-ray tubes from the US and India
Halt imports of poultry products from two American companies
Add 11 American defense companies to an unreliable entity list
Impose export controls on 16 US firms
Halt imports of sorghum from a US company
Investigate DuPont China for suspected antitrust violations
Before this week’s announcement, the tariff imbalance between the US and China was stark: American duties on Chinese goods towered over the tariffs China charges the US. China’s average tariff on US goods stood at 17.8%, less than the 32.8% the US charged on Chinese goods, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis.
Last year, China imported almost $164 billion of goods from the US, the lowest amount in four years.
“The US action does not abide by international trade rules, severely undermines China’s legitimate and lawful rights and interests, and is typical unilateral bullying,” the Finance Ministry said in a statement announcing the 34% tariffs.
Trump’s TikTok Plan Upended by Chinese Objections Over Tariffs
(Bloomberg) …in the aftermath of Trump’s decision to impose sweeping tariffs on US trading partners, including levies that boosted the total rate imposed by the president on many Chinese imports to 54%, representatives from ByteDance on Thursday warned that authorities in Beijing would no longer give their blessing until there could be negotiations on tariffs that have angered China and prompted retaliatory measures against the US.

25 March
Thomas L. Friedman: What I’m Hearing in China This Week About Our Shared Future
… I realize many will consider this wasted breath with all the turmoil unleashed by the new administration in Washington, but that will not deter me from making the point as loudly as I can. Because what Soviet-American nuclear arms control was to world stability since the 1970s, U.S.-Chinese A.I. collaboration to make sure we effectively control these rapidly advancing A.I. systems will be for the stability of tomorrow’s world.
A.I. systems and humanoid robots offer so much potential benefit to humanity, but they could be hugely destructive and destabilizing if not embedded with the right values and controls. In addition, this new age must be defined by a lot of planning about what humans will do for work, and how to preserve the dignity they derive from work, when machines will be able to do so many things better than people. Millions of people possibly losing their jobs and dignity at the same time is a prescription for disorder.

22 March
How Elon Musk’s DOGE Cuts Leave a Vacuum That China Can Fill
The Department of Government Efficiency is shuttering organizations that Beijing worried about most, or actively sought to subvert.
(NYT) As the Department of Government Efficiency roars through agencies across government, its targets have included some of the organizations that Beijing worried about most, or actively sought to subvert. And, as with much that Elon Musk’s DOGE has dismembered, there has been no published study of the costs and benefits of losing those capabilities — and no discussion of how the roles, arguably as important as a manned fighter, might be replaced.
On the list of capabilities on life support is Radio Free Asia, a 29-year-old nonprofit that estimates its news broadcasts reach 60 million people in Asia each week, from China to Myanmar, and across the Pacific islands where the United States has been struggling to counter China’s narratives about the world. It furloughed all but 75 of its Washington staff members on Friday, trying to stay on the air while court cases develop on Trump officials’ moves to defund U.S. government-supported media.
At the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth eliminated the Office of Net Assessment, an internal think-tank. With an annual budget that accounted for a few seconds of Pentagon spending each year, the office tried to think ahead about the challenges the United States would face a decade or two in the future — such as the new capabilities of artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons and the hidden vulnerabilities of supply chains for military contractors.
Over at the Department of Homeland Security, a series of cyberdefenses have been stripped away, at a moment when China’s state-backed hackers have been more successful than at any time in recent memory.
Among those dissolved, at least for the time being, is the Cyber Safety Review Board,…which was just beginning to take testimony on how Chinese intelligence bored deep inside America’s largest telecommunications firms, including the system the Justice Department uses to monitor its “lawful intercept” system, which places wiretaps on people suspected of committing crimes or spying — including Chinese spies. …
20 March
Silencing America’s voice overseas undermines national security
(The Hill) Last Friday, the U.S. decided it no longer needed a voice to counter disinformation, correct misinformation and fill information gaps in regions suffering extreme censorship or lacking competent local journalism.
This gift to Russia, China and Iran — and that’s what this is, a gift — allows these countries to ply lies and deception unfettered to establish their spheres of influence and turn people against the U.S. and its interests, society and future.
… Beijing is also undoubtedly pleased to be rid of the meddling Voice of America and Radio Free Asia, which informed Chinese citizens about what their government did — and, sometimes more importantly, did not do — and the truths about China’s regional and global foreign affairs.
These networks, equally importantly, informed people outside of China about what China was doing, what those loans really entailed and how it undermined governments and societies to extract raw materials or pay poachers to slaughter endangered animals. Indeed, this will ease tension with any U.S. carmaker with a significant business portfolio in the country.

17 March
China’s next move
As the Trump administration continues to reshape US foreign policy and retreat from global commitments, does that create an opportunity for China to step in? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer is joined by Bill Bishop, writer of the Sinocism newsletter, for a wide-ranging conversation on China’s political and economic landscape under President Xi Jinping and global ambitions in the wake of Trump 2.0. So far, 2025 is off to a decent start for China—the release of DeepSeek sent tech stocks soaring and Chinese diplomats have cast Beijing as a “steadfast” global partner while the US ramps up criticism of European allies. But China’s economy is still struggling from a property market in crisis, high youth unemployment, and the specter of deflation. So what’s next for the People’s Republic? How strong is Xi’s hold on power? Will Beijing benefit from US retrenchment and increasing global uncertainty, or will its domestic issues hold it back?
“One of the big goals of the Chinese over the last several years has been to pry the US and EU apart,” Bishop says, “From Beijing’s perspective, Trump has just created more space and opportunity.”

13 March
BlackRock’s Panama Canal deal may be in trouble –
Bill Bishop
(Sinocism) I wrote last week about the BlackRock deal to buy control of ports on either side of the Panama Canal, as well as 43 other ports outside of the PRC and Hong Kong, that it is not clear whether Li or his company gave Beijing a heads up about the transaction, or had to get permission.
Now Beijing may be having a say.
Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong paper closely tied to the government, published a commentary titled “Don’t Be Naïve, Don’t Be Confused” that blasted the deal:
“If the Panama Canal becomes “Americanized” and “politicized”, the U.S. will undoubtedly use it for political purposes, implementing policies that restrict Chinese trade. If the U.S. imposes selective passage restrictions, political surcharges, or other barriers, China’s logistics costs and supply chain stability could face severe risks. Additionally, by acquiring this massive port network, BlackRock will control approximately 10.4% of the world’s container terminal throughput, making it one of the top three global port operators. This gives BlackRock leverage to cooperate with the U.S. in restricting Chinese shipping operations, raising costs for Chinese cargo ships, and squeezing China out of the global maritime trade. Moreover, this deal would create significant gaps in the port network built by Chinese companies over many years, allowing U.S. interests to eat away at China’s overseas economic foothold…
many netizens have strongly criticized both this deal and CK Hutchison Holdings, regarding this as spineless kowtowing, solely pursuing profit and forgetting righteousness, disregarding national interests and greater national principles, betraying and selling out all Chinese people. These emotional expressions from internet users are completely understandable.
In the face of such a significant geopolitical and economic issue, the companies involved must think carefully. They must understand the true nature of this deal, its underlying implications, and where they stand on this critical matter.”
In a signal that this commentary has the full backing of the central government, the Hong Kong and Macao Work Office of the CPC Central Committee reprinted the commentary in full on its website.

12 March
China can live with Trump’s tariffs – his bullish foreign policywill help Beijing in the long term
Steve Tsang
Xi Jinping will order China to stand fast. In putting America first, Trump has done more than Xi has ever managed to make China great again. Xi’s China Dream has not yet come true, but with Trump’s help, it has made a great leap forward.
Trump’s proposal for peace in Ukraine, apparently largely on Russian terms, and his naked ambition over Canada and Greenland are of enormous value to China. He has damaged relations with US allies in North America and Europe, and indicated the US will step back from commitments to international projects such as USAid, the UN and the World Health Organization.
Why is this cherished in Beijing? It is because China has developed a global strategy based on Xi Jinping Thought. Its goal is to fulfil the China Dream of national rejuvenation by 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic. Trump has made Xi’s dream more realisable.
In plain English, Xi’s strategic objective is to make China great again on Chinese terms. More specifically, it aims to “restore” China to a position of global pre-eminence, which Xi believes China regularly enjoyed when it was the most powerful, rich, innovative and civilised country at different times in history.
The route to restoration is through what Xi calls the “democratisation of international relations”. Once achieved, China will lead the world to forge the “common destiny for humankind”, guided by Xi’s suite of three global initiatives, on development, security and civilisation.
This is not about creating an alternative world order from scratch to replace the US-led liberal international order put in place at the end of the second world war. Rather, it is about transformingthe existing order into one that is sino-centric with the support of the global south. It means making sure the UN system prioritises the interests and desires of the global south, represented by its leader, China, over that of the west.

9-10 March
China’s Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Products Take Effect
The action came in response to the higher levies on Chinese imports that President Trump announced last week.
Beijing began imposing tariffs on Monday on many farm products from the United States, for which China is the largest overseas market. It is the latest escalation of a trade fight between the world’s two largest economies.
The Chinese government announced the tariffs last week, shortly after President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese products for the second time since he took office in January. The Chinese tariffs will include a levy of 15 percent on U.S. products like chicken, wheat and corn, as well as 10 percent on products like soybeans, pork, beef and fruit.
Beijing said that goods that had already been shipped by Monday and imported by April 12 would not be subject to the new tariffs.
China learned from Trump’s first trade war and changed its tactics when tariffs came again
(AP) Beijing, which unlike America’s close partners and neighbors has been locked in a trade and tech war with the U.S. for years, is taking a different approach to Trump in his second term, making it clear that any negotiations should be conducted on equal footing.
China’s leaders say they are open to talks, but they also made preparations for the higher U.S. tariffs, which have risen 20% since Trump took office seven weeks ago. Intent on not being caught off guard as they were during Trump’s first term, the Chinese were ready with retaliatory measures — imposing their own taxes this past week on key U.S. farm imports and more.
Singapore, HK Face Growth Risks Over US Tariff War With China
(Bloomberg) Economists lowered the growth outlook for Singapore and Hong Kong in the second half of this year on increased uncertainties from US President Donald Trump imposing higher tariffs on China’s exports, according to the median of a Bloomberg survey.

6 March
China’s foreign minister criticizes US tariffs and accuses the country of ‘meeting good with evil’
(AP) — Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China will continue to retaliate to the United States’ “arbitrary tariffs” and accused Washington of “meeting good with evil” in a press conference Friday on the sidelines of the country’s annual parliamentary session.
… The two countries have been reengaging in tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs since U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to office in January. The U.S. has imposed flat tariffs of 20% of all Chinese imports, while Beijing has countered with additional 15% duties on U.S. imports including chicken, pork, soy and beef, and expanded controls on doing business with key U.S. companies.

Shipping firms pull back from Hong Kong to skirt US-China risks
By Greg Torode and Jonathan Saul
Shipowners cite fears of potential sanctions, commandeering of vessels in military crisis
Moves come amid US scrutiny of role of China’s merchant fleet in conflict
HK govt says normal for shipping firms to review operations based on geopolitics, trade
(Reuters) – Some shipping companies are discreetly moving operations out of Hong Kong and taking vessels off its flag registry. Others are making contingency plans to do so.
Behind these low-profile moves, six shipping executives said, lie concerns that their ships could be commandeered by Chinese authorities or hit with U.S. sanctions in a conflict between Beijing and Washington.
Beijing’s emphasis on the role of Hong Kong in serving Chinese security interests and growing U.S. scrutiny of the importance of China’s commercial fleet in a possible military clash, such as over Taiwan, are causing unease across the industry, the people told Reuters.

4 March
China slaps extra tariffs of up to 15% on imports of major US farm exports and adds trade limits
(AP) — China responded to new U.S. tariffs by announcing Tuesday it will impose additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of key U.S. farm products, including chicken, pork, soy and beef, and expanded controls on doing business with key U.S. companies.
The tariffs announced by the Commerce Ministry will take effect from March 10, though goods already in transit will be exempt until April 12. They follow U.S. President Donald Trump’s order to raise tariffs on imports of Chinese products to 20% across the board. A range of Chinese goods were already subject to 10-25% tariffs levied by Trump during his first term.
China is a major importer of American farm products.
Now, imports of U.S.-grown chicken, wheat, corn and cotton will face an extra 15% tariff, the Chinese ministry said. Tariffs on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruit, vegetables and dairy products will be increased by 10%.
China and Canada retaliate after Trump trade tariffs come into effect
Markets tumble around world as US president’s levies against Canada, Mexico and China are implemented

28 February
China promises ‘countermeasures’ after Trump threatens additional 10% tariff
US president also says delayed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will go into effect on 4 March
Donald Trump has threatened China with an additional 10% tariff on its exports to the US, prompting a promise of “countermeasures” from Beijing and setting the stage for another significant escalation in the two governments’ trade war.

12 February
Trump’s Americas Doctrine Starts at the Canal
Rubio’s inaugural trip to Panama builds on longstanding concerns, stakes out US terms, and puts China on notice.
(Hoover Institution) … In August 2023 and thereafter, Trump revived his criticism of Panama over…the dangers of foreign influence and dual-use infrastructure. China, Trump cautioned, had leveraged its newfound relationship with Panama to affect canal operations, which jeopardizes the canal’s neutrality and thus violates the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties.
Trump would not abide this erosion of the canal’s sovereignty. At his 2025 Inaugural Address, Trump used the grand occasion to issue a stern warning. “China is operating the Panama Canal,” Trump proclaimed. “And we didn’t give it to China,” the new president declared, “We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back.”
Trump’s approach may offend the sensibilities of quiet-diplomacy proponents, but his stern message registered with audiences in Beijing and within countries in Latin America and the Caribbean that court China at the expense of American interests. Gone are the days of China advancing its influence in the Western Hemisphere without a challenge from the United States. Trump’s ultimatum to Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino over the sovereignty of the canal served as an opening salvo in his bid for a new configuration in hemispheric order.

7 February
US pressure has forced Panama to quit China’s Belt and Road Initiative – it could set the pattern for further superpower clashes
(The Conversation) Following Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the US needs to “take back” the Panama canal from Chinese control, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, visited Panama to demand the country reduce China’s influence. On the surface, it seems Rubio has succeeded.
On February 3, the Panamanian authorities withdrew from the China’s international infrastructure programme, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This makes Panama the first Latin American country both to endorse and to end cooperation with the BRI.
On February 4, local lawyers urged the country’s supreme court to cancel the concession given to Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Port Holdings which allows it to operate two ports at either end of the Panama canal. They say it violates the country’s constitution since it contains excessive tax breaks and cedes significant land areas to the port company. The Panamanian authorities are reportedly still considering this.
But what is the reality of China’s presence in the canal, and what does increased US scrutiny mean for Xi Jinping’s signature project?

6 February
How is China retaliating against US tariffs, and what impact will it have?
China has announced a basket of measures including tariffs, export restrictions and sanctions on US companies
(SCMP) Within minutes of the United States hiking tariffs on all Chinese imports by 10 per cent, Beijing announced a slew of retaliatory measures in a bid to gain leverage in any future trade negotiations with Washington.
The moves unveiled on Tuesday included a 10-15 per cent increase in tariffs on certain US imports, export restrictions on some critical minerals, the addition of two US companies to a Chinese government blacklist, and an antitrust investigation targeting American tech giant Google.
China has also filed a complaint against the US levies with the World Trade Organization.
Although the steps taken by Beijing are more measured and targeted than the US’ across-the-board tariffs on Chinese goods, economists said China’s moves were carefully calibrated – as some of them will hit areas that US President Donald Trump most cares about.
According to Beijing’s announcement, eight goods imported from the US will face additional duties of 15 per cent, including coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Meanwhile, 72 products will be covered by a 10 per cent tariff hike, including crude oil and high-emission vehicles.

5 February
What Trump’s return means for US-China relations
Ian Bremmer
Let me explain why I think we’re headed for a breakdown in the world’s most important geopolitical relationship.
First things first: Xi prefers a stable relationship with the US, especially while he deals with serious economic challenges, growing social stability concerns, and an underperforming military. For his part, Trump is not interested in causing a stock market crash at home and would like a “grand bargain” he can sell as a win. Preparations for a summit between the two leaders this year are accordingly ongoing.
But even though Xi and Trump both want a deal, there’s no room for a viable compromise. The gap between what the Trump administration wants and what Beijing is prepared to offer is too wide to bridge.
For China, the goodies on the table are transactional: more agricultural and energy purchases, better treatment for US companies in China, increased Chinese investment in America, a TikTok compromise, and maybe even help brokering a ceasefire in Ukraine. Beijing would also demand concessions in return, especially the rollback of US tech restrictions.
While Trump may be personally enticed by such a deal, it is a nonstarter for the trade and security hawks in his cabinet and the Republican Party. These people don’t see China as a country to accommodate – they see it as a strategic competitor that needs to be contained while America still has the advantage. …

3 February
For China, Trump’s Moves Bring Pain, but Also Potential Gains
By David Pierson, Keith Bradsher and Sui-Lee Wee
President Trump’s tariffs hurt China, but his other actions have alienated U.S. allies, giving Beijing an opening to strengthen its global standing.
(NYT) Two weeks into the second Trump administration, Mr. Trump’s aggressive “America First” foreign policy holds both promise and peril for Beijing.
The perils have always been clear: more tariffs, and the risk of a wider trade war. This weekend, Mr. Trump imposed an additional 10 percent tariffs on goods imported from China, saying the tariffs were a response to China’s failure to curb fentanyl exports. He could answer any retaliation from China with even higher levies. …
If the second Trump term marks the sunset of Pax Americana, analysts say China will almost certainly use the opportunity to try to reshape the world in its favor. Beijing, which has long accused Washington of using its dominance to contain China’s rise, has tried to drive a wedge between the United States and its allies, including the European Union, Japan and Australia.
If the United States strong-arms Panama over its crucial waterway, or forces Denmark to give up the resource-rich territory of Greenland, it sends a signal to China that when it comes to its own claims to the self-governing island of Taiwan and much of the South China Sea, coercion trumps cooperation.
“China was certainly never going to give up Taiwan or the South China Sea, but with President Trump doing what he’s doing, China is even more determined to safeguard its interests there, that’s for sure,” said Henry Huiyao Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing.
… On the issue of tariffs, Beijing has to decide if it can afford to escalate a trade war with the United States. On Sunday, it vowed to respond to Mr. Trump’s tariffs by filing a case with the World Trade Organization and with countermeasures to be specified later.
Beijing could hit back with tariffs. A more drastic approach would be for China to engage in “supply chain warfare”: halting shipments to the United States of materials and equipment critical to U.S. industry. In early December, China stopped the export to the United States of minerals like antimony and gallium, which are needed to manufacture some semiconductors.

29 January
After talking tough during campaign, Trump appears to ease up on China at start of presidency
Trump appears to be seeking a more nuanced relationship with the country that both Republicans and Democrats have come to see as the gravest foreign policy challenge to the U.S. China is also a major trading partner and an economic powerhouse, and it has one of the world’s largest military forces.
“We look forward to doing very well with China and getting along with China,” Trump said Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in comments that suggested Beijing could help end the war in Ukraine and reduce nuclear arms.

28 January
Can Trump seize the moment on China?
Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center and the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies at Brookings
(Brookings) The U.S.-China relationship President Donald J. Trump inherited is vastly different than the one he handed off to the Biden administration in 2021. China continues to expand its global influence and industrial output, but it also faces challenges at home from a softening economy and an increasingly sclerotic and centralized political decision-making process. Trump’s team holds a variety of viewpoints on how to maximize America’s leverage, or even on what objectives America should pursue in its competition with China. Left unaddressed, this variance in views risks leading to policy incoherence. To overcome this risk, Trump will need to set a firm direction, identify specific objectives, and put his advisors on notice that they will pay a cost for actions that undermine his goals. Trump has an opportunity to craft a strong policy to move the U.S.-China relationship toward becoming fairer and more equitable. Whether he seizes this opportunity may depend upon the degree to which he acts with purpose, maintains focus, and imposes discipline over a sprawling set of actors within his administration who will implement America’s China strategy. …

27 January
Mark Leon Goldberg: Trump 2.0 Will Accelerate China’s Rise
Lessons from the Bush Administration
(Global Dispatches) … Twenty-five years ago, George W. Bush came to office deeply skeptical of the kind of internationalism practiced by the Clinton administration. When crisis hit, the Bush administration eschewed America’s commitments to multilateralism and treated longstanding American allies with contempt at best—or as potential adversaries at worst.
Though he is very different in tone and style from George W. Bush, Trump shares Bush’s fundamentally misguided worldview: the belief that America is powerful enough to go it alone. This inflated perception of American power set the geopolitical conditions for China’s remarkable ascent in the first decade of the new century. And in the coming years, the same mindset will serve to accelerate China’s position as a global powerhouse capable of challenging the United States across a variety of domains.
George W. Bush and his coterie of hawkish neo-conservative advisers were very, very bad at foreign policy. Iraq is the fiasco that history will remember. But there were many other lowlights. North Korea, for example, became a breakout nuclear power after the Bush administration unilaterally withdrew from the “Six-Party” talks aimed at containing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. The administration also unilaterally withdrew from the (highly successful) anti-ballistic missile treaty. This, predictably, led to a new buildup of Russian ballistic nuclear missile capabilities and is now also influencing China’s rapid nuclear development.

What does rise of AI firm DeepSeek mean for US-China tech war, and the race for talent?
After the company took tech world by surprise with powerful, low-cost AI model, new questions are raised about US containment strategy
(SCMP) The rise of little-known Chinese tech start-up DeepSeek has exposed weaknesses in America’s “small yard, high fence” strategy to contain China’s technological progress, according to experts.
The company’s success has also signalled an intensifying competition between the US and China to win over the brightest AI minds, they said, while noting that China may still have a long way to go to become a leading global AI player.
This week, DeepSeek, a research lab based in Hangzhou, topped the free download charts in app stores in both China and the US, even surpassing ChatGPT in the US rankings.

25-26 January
Trump discussing TikTok purchase with multiple people, decision in 30 days
Trump said he is talking to multiple people over buying TikTok
Trump expects a decision in the next 30 days
White House working on plan to tap Oracle, US investors to take over TikTok, sources say
ByteDance will retain a stake, source says
Talks involve ByteDance’s US investors, source says
(Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he was in talks with multiple people over buying TikTok and would likely have a decision on the popular app’s future in the next 30 days.
The deal being negotiated anticipates participation from some of ByteDance’s current U.S. investors, according to the sources. Jeff Yass’s Susquehanna International Group, General Atlantic, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) and Sequoia Capital are among ByteDance’s U.S. backers.
How the TikTok ban brought Americans and Chinese closer
When refugees from the app showed up on an alternative called RedNote, understanding was fostered.
TikTok has returned, for now, but some American users said they would keep using RedNote. But I’m not too optimistic that these friendly RedNote exchanges can last: American users could tire of explaining everything to strangers. And the national security concerns that led to the TikTok ban could also apply to RedNote. As for the Chinese side, the initial influx of TikTok users caught RedNote by surprise. The platform scrambled to hire English-speaking moderators — a sign that more censorship and curation will follow. Given the state of the world, it’s mostly a fantasy to imagine people from the two competing powers talking openly to each other in any public forum.
But even just temporarily, in their zeal to act on their perceived national interests, the U.S. government and the Chinese censors have accidentally brought their two peoples closer together. This has made for a surreal feel-good moment for millions of American and Chinese users.

24 January
Wang tells Rubio leaders have set tone and direction of US-China ties
First call between top diplomats in new Trump administration
Wang tells Rubio ‘I hope you would conduct yourself well’
Says heads of state have ‘pointed out the direction’ of ties
(Reuters) – Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday and Beijing said he told the known China hawk that the direction and tone of U.S.-China ties had been set by their leaders and he hoped Rubio would play a constructive role for the good of the people of both countries.
“The Secretary also stressed the United States’ commitment to our allies in the region and serious concern over China’s coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea,” a State Department statement said.

23 January
Trump says he could reach trade deal with China, calls talk with Xi ‘friendly’
Trump calls his talk with Xi ‘friendly’
US president says he would rather not use tariffs against China
US-China rivalry has grown in recent years
(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said his conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week was friendly and he thought he could reach a trade deal with China.
The leaders of the world’s two biggest economies discussed issues including TikTok, trade and Taiwan in a phone call before Trump took office on Monday.
Since taking office, Trump has spoken about a 10% punitive duty on Chinese imports because he says fentanyl is being sent from China to the U.S. via Mexico and Canada. However, he did not immediately impose tariffs as he had promised during his election campaign.
What do Chinese analysts expect for China-US relations under Trump 2.0?
Xie Tao, Professor and Dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy – Beijing Foreign Studies University
(Brookings) The United States is the only country in the world with both the capability and the intent to significantly shape China’s domestic and external environment. Meanwhile, the president is the most influential actor in U.S. foreign policy. These two factors combine to make the quadrennial presidential election the obsession of Chinese government officials, journalists, academics, and pundits. They try their best not only to predict and explain presidential election results but also to forecast China-U.S. relations over the next four years.
Now that Trump is occupying the White House for another four years, how do Chinese analysts assess the prospects for the world’s most consequential relationship? There is already a large and growing number of informed analyses that try to answer this question, and their sentiment is overwhelmingly pessimistic, punctuated by occasional cautious optimism.
The overwhelming majority of Chinese analysts strike a decidedly pessimistic tone, particularly because Trump’s first four years leave little room for optimism about the next four years. …
Meanwhile, the resurgence of China hawks in Trump’s incoming administration casts a long shadow of pessimism over the prospects of the bilateral relationship. Marco Rubio, Trump’s pick for secretary of state, is one of the most high-profile critics of China in Washington. Michael Waltz, Trump’s choice for national security advisor, also has established himself as a China hawk on Capitol Hill. One analyst, Jia Qingguo, describes the likes of Rubio and Waltz as “extreme realists,” some of whom “harbor strong antipathy and bias against China.” With these China hardliners advising the president, one can hardly expect any positive development in the near future, even though the commander-in-chief will have the final say on China policy.
Singapore PM Warns of ‘Third World War’ Over US and China Relations
(Newsweek) Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has warned that escalating U.S.-China tensions could lead to disastrous consequences worldwide if the countries decoupled, according to local media.
He said that splitting into two blocs and forcing other countries to align with either superpower risked pushing the globe “to the brink of a third world war,” The Straits Times reported.

21 January
Trump raises prospects for a negotiated reset on US-China ties
By Joe Cash and Xiuhao Chen
Trump unexpectedly held off on tariffs on China
US, China both want negotiations rather than fresh tensions
China sees chance to unwind Biden administration export controls
(Reuters) – Donald Trump unexpectedly held off tariffs on China on his first day back at the White House and did not single it out as a threat, raising the prospect of a rapprochement as both sides look to gain from each other rather than rain harm on an adversary.
In a speech after his inauguration, the U.S. president refrained from mentioning China, its erstwhile opponent in a previous trade war, even as he said tariffs would make the United States “rich as hell”, leaving the door open for fresh negotiations with the world’s second-largest economy.
Trump Says He Intends to Impose 10% Tariffs on Chinese Imports on Feb. 1
The president said the planned duties were a response to China’s failure to curb fentanyl exports.

19 January
From GDP to trade, how well equipped is China’s economy for Trump 2.0?
Amy Hawkins, Senior China correspondent
(The Guardian) Beijing will be watching closely. Trump has promised to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports, partly in retaliation for the flow of fentanyl from China to the US.
The specifics of Trump’s China policies are yet to be announced. And Beijing has had time to prepare for increased tariffs, by building up trade relationships with small economies and moving supply chains to third countries, especially Russia. Bilateral trade between China and Russia reached a record $237bn in 2024.
But none of this will be enough to offset falling demand from the US. With weak domestic demand and a structural rebalancing in major industries, the Chinese economy is far more reliant on exports than it was in 2017.

18 January
Trump discusses trade and TikTok ban in phone call with Xi Jinping
The call came the same day that the US Supreme Court backed a law banning TikTok unless it’s sold by its China-based parent company.
(Euronews) Days ahead of his inauguration and amid vows to impose tariffs on America’s biggest rival, US President-elect Donald Trump spoke with China’s leader Xi Jinping in a phone call on Friday.
According to the Chinese foreign ministry, both leaders discussed trade, the drug fentanyl, and TikTok in a call on the same day that the US Supreme Court backed a law banning TikTok unless it’s sold by its China-based parent company.
“We both attach great importance to interaction, hope for a good start of the China-U.S. relationship during the new US presidency, and are willing to secure greater progress in China-U.S. relations from a new starting point,” Xi said, according to China’s foreign ministry.

17 January
U.S. Supreme Court upholds ban or forced sale of TikTok that goes in effect Sunday
While the government won the case, White House admits app’s fate in U.S. will ultimately fall to Trump

Thomas Friedman I Never Felt Like This in China Before
(NYT) …suddenly the U.S. and China have a lot more to talk about than just trade and Taiwan — and who’s the undisputed heavyweight champion of the 21st century.
The world today faces three epochal challenges right now: runaway artificial intelligence, climate change and spreading disorder from collapsing states. The U.S. and China are the world’s A.I. superpowers. They are the world’s two leading carbon emitters. And they have the world’s two biggest naval forces, capable of projecting power globally. America and China are the only two powers, in other words, that together can offer any hope of managing superintelligence, superstorms and superempowered small groups of angry men in failed states — not to mention superviruses — at a time when the world has become superfused. (24 December 2024)