Global economy October 2024-

Global economy November 2023-October 2024

2024 IMF/World Bank Group Annual Meetings
Monday, October 21 to Saturday, October 26

21 October
IMF, World Bank meetings clouded by wars, slow economic growth, US election
US election could reshape trade, climate policies
Anti-China trade sentiment is key topic at meetings
IMF pointing to lackluster global economy
(Reuters) – Global finance chiefs will gather in Washington this week amid intense uncertainty over wars in the Middle East and Europe, a flagging Chinese economy and worries that a coin-toss U.S. presidential election could ignite new trade battles and erode multilateral cooperation.
The International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings are scheduled to draw more than 10,000 people from finance ministries, central banks and civil society groups to discuss efforts to boost patchy global growth, deal with debt distress and finance the green energy transition.
Get an inside look at the IMF-World Bank meetings as finance leaders navigate a geopolitically fragmented world
By Atlantic Council experts
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, countries need to relearn how to work together to achieve mutual prosperity.
But with finance ministers and central bank governors descending upon Washington this week for the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, there may only be time for a crash course in cooperation, as they will need to tackle challenges ranging from inflation to debt crises and beyond.
To gauge whether delegates can revive the spirit of cooperation in this geopolitically fragmented moment, we’ve sent our experts to the center of the action in Foggy Bottom. [Read] their insights, in addition to takeaways from our conversations with financial leaders outlining the global economy’s outlook for the coming years. …

25th BRICS Summit
22–24 October
Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts Summit
in the Russian city of Kazan.

21-23 October
The growing tension within the BRICS
Russia and China see the burgeoning bloc as a vehicle for confrontation with the West. Other influential member states are not so keen.
By Ishaan Tharoor
(WaPo) …the grouping is still weaker than the sum of its parts. Much divides its major players, from the political systems of their governments to their geographies to their geopolitical and economic interests. They differ in principle and approach on hot-button global issues like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and are not wholly aligned on some of the broader ambitions floated by leaders in the bloc, including weaning international trade off its dependence on the U.S. dollar and blunting the unique threat posed by U.S. sanctions.

Putin Brings Together Economies He Hopes Will Eclipse the West
The Russian leader hopes to use the meeting of the so-called BRICS group, which includes China and India, as a counterweight to the West.
(NYT) This week Russia is hosting the so-called BRICS group. The meeting, which begins Tuesday, has expanded this year to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. BRICS now includes countries representing almost half the world’s population and more than 35 percent of global economic output, adjusted by purchasing power.

19 October
Brics summit vs IMF-World Bank meetings: the global divide is clear
The West and its institutions are deluded if they think ignoring the Global South’s demands and preserving the status quo will work.
(SCMP) Whether by chance or design, the coming week brings a notable overlap between events in the United States and Russia. Washington is hosting the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), where no doubt wine and canapés will be consumed, while in the Russian city of Kazan two dozen presidents and prime ministers are expected to attend a Brics summit, where they will perhaps indulge in vodka and caviar.
What is the connection between the two apart from high-end gastronomic indulgences? At first glance, it might look like nothing other than their timing. However, the two gatherings are symbolic of a growing economic and geopolitical divide between East and West manifested in increasing competition for influence between a West-centred bloc and one run by Russia and China.
The Bretton Woods institutions both have nearly 200 nations among their members, so 24 national leaders being present at the Brics summit might appear to pale in comparison. However, it is the evolving economic and political stature rather than the number of attendees that counts.
… Saudi Arabia, which has been invited to join Brics, is likely to be represented at the summit. The secretary general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the president of the New Development Bank and senior officials of other multinational organisations are expected to attend. …

18 October
The Global Economy’s Hidden Weaknesses
Eswar Prasad
The relative calm that has taken hold in the global economy gives policymakers around the world an opportunity to tackle underlying obstacles to growth. Priorities should include bringing public finances under control, fostering household and business confidence, and devising clear policy frameworks to boost productivity growth.
(Project Syndicate) After a tumultuous couple of years, the global economy finally seems to be in recovery mode. But beneath a placid surface of falling inflation and rising overall growth lie considerable inconsistencies, weaknesses, and tensions, reflected in tanking private-sector confidence
The latest update of the Brookings-Financial Times Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery (TIGER) shows that, while global growth is gaining momentum, it remains weak, disjointed, and driven largely by the continued strong performance of just one economy: the United States. In fact, though a few economies – especially the US and India – are operating in high gear, most of the advanced economies and many emerging-market economies, including China, are decelerating, hamstrung by rising debt burdens and feckless policymaking.

A sea of red ink.
Christopher Goodfellow post
The IMF forecasts that total government debt – this does not include and private or commercial/business debt – is set to surpass $100 Trillion dollars and debt will surpass 100% of global GDP.
Governments are always fixated on growth because it is assumed that growth leads to more prosperity for everyone. Perhaps it is time that we re-examine this assumption especially as it relates to America as we see our own National debt soar to $36 Trillion on track for $40 Trillion likely by the end of 2026 – close to 40% of the total world national debt.
The habit of running continual deficits year after year has brought us to a crisis point because to maintain growth ever larger increases of debt are now required. Economists talk about bang for the buck and if we look at the % increase in our GDP it is being far outstripped by the % increase in debt. In effect growth is resulting in a deeper hole. As we mortgage our future, our future prosperity is declining.
How did we get to such debt levels? Simply put we got here by allowing politicians to buy our votes with our own money. Keynesian economics – the approach that government should run deficits during recessions to bolster weak demand and repay those deficits in times of recovery and prosperity has been abandoned in favor of the specious theory of Reaganomics, that of trickle down. It became acceptable to let deficits run and tax less as under the resultant theory economic activity will increase GDP at such a rate as to provide the revenues to carry the extra debt. The problem in hindsight is obvious, debt has compounded faster than economic growth and governments do not even have the revenues to service the debt. The tail wags the dog as more debt is taken on to pay the interest on the old debt.
It’s a fools game and the American people bought it lock, stock and barrel. It is now exploding in our faces because those that benefitted most from this policy of low taxes and allowing unrestrained spending will not hear of any tax increases. But to dig out of this hole we have the choice of raising taxes and paying down debt or letting the more common tool of inflation to reduce the ratio of debt to GDP.
We act angry and surprised by the massive inflation that broke out during Covid but it was inevitable as markets will be markets and the tremendous increases in debt over the past 20 years – 8 Trillion from The Obama Administration to dig us out from the deepest recession since the Great Depression and 8 Trillion by the Trump Administration spent during Covid. More debt has been added by the past three Administrations than the accumulated debt from all the Administrations since the founding of the nation.
Obama got rolled by the bankers in the greatest looting of a national Treasury in history. He should have taken all their equity to bail them as happens in most any bankruptcy. Instead they made off with their fortunes and socialized the losses on the taxpayer. During the Trump Administration much of the money fighting Covid simply disappeared. There was likely massive fraud which will never be accounted for.
All this to say nothing has been fixed. Neither the Republicans under Trump nor Harris really have a plan although I suspect Harris understands that the answer lays in massive tax increases on Corporations and high net worth individuals to bring back into the government pot some of the past thirty years of wealth transfer upwards and the necessity of reducing deficit spending. Trump on the other hand along with his cohorts want none of this. They are content if not eager to further reduce taxes and run larger deficits and let the consequent inflation run. After all inflation boosts the hard assets of the wealthy and penalizes the common working man who simply does not understand inflation is a hidden tax.
There is a direct correlation between the price of gold and the uncertainty facing financial markets worldwide now and the decisions that will be taken in the coming year. Spot gold reached another new high this morning.
One thing is certain. There is no perpetual motion machine. Despite the FED and the Bank of Canada announcing inflation has been tamed, it is simply public relations. Some time in the very near future we will likely learn the major insurers in the U.S. with the massive losses from Helene and Milton are facing difficulties and will require being bailed out. Insurance markets are already difficult and insurers are pullling back coverages everywhere but insurance is needed to issue mortgages and sustain the real estate market. The Fed’s main concern may well become deflation shortly as real estate values fall. They cannot let deflation take hold as it will bring the entire debt pyramid upon which our economy is based down, so they will bail whoever they have to bail and inflation be damned.
As National debts pass this 100 Trillion figure it is a signpost of difficulties and challenges to come.

17 October
IMF Sees Soft Landing for Global Economy, But Weak Growth Ahead as Trade Barriers Rise
The fund will release new economic growth forecasts next week
(WSJ) Inflation rates are falling and the global economy is on track for a soft landing, but the outlook for growth is tepid and rising trade barriers are a headwind, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.
US presidential election looms over IMF and World Bank annual meetings
(AP) — Global finance leaders face a major uncertainty as they meet in Washington next week: Who will win the U.S. presidential election and shape the policies of the world’s biggest economy?
Republican nominee former President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris have spoken little about their plans for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But their differing views on trade, tariffs and other economic issues will be on the minds of the finance leaders as they attend the financial institutions’ annual meetings.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva alluded to what’s at stake in a curtain-raiser speech Thursday ahead of the meetings.
Without naming Trump, she warned that “major players, driven by national security concerns, are increasingly resorting to industrial policy and protectionism, creating one trade restriction after another.”

16 October
This year’s Nobel prize exposes economics’ problem with colonialism
Dr Jostein Hauge, political economist and Assistant Professor in Development Studies, University of Cambridge
(The Conversation) Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson have been awarded the 2024 Nobel memorial prize in economics for their influential work on how institutions shape economic development. Some would say the decision to award these scholars the Nobel was long overdue.
The paper that formed the basis of their work is one of the most cited in economics. Acemoglu and Robinson’s subsequent book, Why Nations Fail (2013), has also been hugely influential.
These works have inspired a rich debate on the relationship between societal institutions and economic development – so in that sense, congratulations are in order. But they have also been the subject of substantial criticism. In the aftermath of the award, it is fitting to highlight the blind spots in their analysis.

15 October
Global Public Debt Is Probably Worse Than it Looks
The fiscal outlook of many countries might be worse than expected for three reasons: large spending pressures, optimism bias of debt projections, and sizable unidentified debt.
(IMF Blog) Elevated risks to public debt call for enduring and carefully designed fiscal adjustments.
Global public debt is very high. It is expected to exceed $100 trillion, or about 93 percent of global gross domestic product by the end of this year and will approach 100 percent of GDP by 2030. This is 10 percentage points of GDP above 2019, that is, before the pandemic.
While the picture is not homogeneous—public debt is expected to stabilize or decline for two thirds of countries—the October 2024 Fiscal Monitor shows that future debt levels could be even higher than projected, and much larger fiscal adjustments than currently projected are required to stabilize or reduce it with a high probability. The report argues that countries should confront debt risks now with carefully designed fiscal policies that protect growth and vulnerable households, while taking advantage of the monetary policy easing cycle.