Syria December 2024 –

Syria
A Visual Guide to the Tangled
Alliances and Rivalries in Syria

2 February
Russia, Seeking to Salvage Military Bases, Goes Hat in Hand to Syria
The arrival of the first top Russian diplomat in Damascus since Bashar al-Assad’s fall kicks off negotiations over the fate of Moscow’s bases in Syria.
(NYT)…lay[ing] the groundwork for Russia to keep its military bases in Syria, less than two months after rebels had toppled Moscow’s preferred strongman, Bashar al-Assad.
To do so, the delegation would need to win over a people the Russian military had bombed ruthlessly, helping Mr. al-Assad, for years.

29 January
Rebel Leader Who Overthrew al-Assad is Declared Syria’s President
The new leadership of the country said the rebel coalition leader, Ahmed al-Shara, would serve as president during a transitional period.
(NYT) The rebel coalition that seized control of Syria last month appointed its leader, Ahmed al-Shara, as president of the country to preside over a transitional period, Syrian state media reported on Wednesday.
A spokesman for the coalition, Col. Hassan Abdel Ghani, also declared that the Constitution had been nullified and the legislature and army formed under the country’s deposed dictator, Bashar al-Assad, were dissolved, according to Syria’s state news agency, SANA.
The declarations amounted to the country’s first official steps toward establishing a new government
Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa named president for transitional period
(Al Jazeera) Al-Sharaa was also authorised to form a temporary legislative council for the transitional phase, state media reports.
Al-Sharaa is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former opposition armed group. … Since Assad’s removal, HTS has become the de facto ruling party and has set up an interim government largely composed of officials from the local government it previously ran in rebel-held Idlib province.
Abdel Ghani also announced the dissolution of the armed factions in the country, which he said would be absorbed into state institutions. “All military factions are dissolved… and integrated into state institutions,” state news agency SANA quoted Abdel Ghani as saying, and also announcing “the dissolution of the defunct regime’s army” and security agencies, as well as the Baath party, which ruled Syria for decades.

26 January
Syrian fighters execute 35 in three days, war monitor says
While pro-democracy protests have taken place in recent weeks, some are worried about which direction the new leadership will take.
(The Guardian) Authorities have arrested dozens of people accused of taking advantage of the chaos in Syria to settle old scores
Since seizing power, the new authorities have sought to reassure religious and ethnic minorities in Syria that their rights would be upheld.
Members of Assad’s Alawite minority have expressed fear of retaliation over abuses during his clan’s decades in power.

12-13 January
Will the West move fast enough to lift al-Assad-era sanctions on Syria?
Damascus launches a diplomatic outreach to push for an end to restrictions.
(Al Jazeera) The United Nations says seven out of 10 Syrians require humanitarian assistance after 13 years of war
Syria’s new administration has engaged in diplomacy in the past two weeks to persuade Western powers to rapidly lift sanctions imposed during the rule of Bashar al-Assad.
But those governments want to see progress towards inclusive and democratic governance in Syria.
Concerns are growing that the euphoria following the fall of al-Assad may give way to frustration and violence if the process is delayed.
And can Syria’s new rulers make the changes needed to win the confidence of world powers?
EU agrees to tackle Syria sanctions as Western, Arab leaders meet in Riyadh
Top Western and Middle East diplomats and ministers meet to discuss sanctions relief for Syria after al-Assad’s removal.

12 January
Druse Leader Aims to Secure Place for Syrian Minorities
Despite assurances from the rebels-turned-leaders, members of some religious groups worry what life will be like for them in a post-Assad Syria
As Western diplomats explore establishing ties with the rebels who took power in Syria, a religious minority has been conducting its own diplomatic push to ensure protections for its members as the country rebuilds.
A representative of the group, the Druse, recently went to Washington to meet with lawmakers, members of the Biden and Trump administrations and diplomats to plead their case.

3 January
No date yet for landmark Syrian national dialogue, sources say
By Timour Azhari
(Reuters) – Syria’s new rulers have not yet decided when to hold a landmark national dialogue conference that is meant to bring together Syrians from across society to chart a new path for the nation after the fall of the Assad dynasty, according to five sources.
Holding the conference has been a key pledge of the rebels.
Kurds, women must be included in Syria’s transition, European ministers say
French, German ministers, in Syria, urge inclusive transition
Trip intended to send message of cautious engagement
Ministers meet Syria’s de facto new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa
Ministers say it is too early to lift sanctions on Syria
The foreign ministers of Germany and France met with Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa — formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani — in Damascus on Friday. They spoke on behalf of the European Union as they called for a peaceful transition for the country and said that their nations want a new relationship with Syria. Germany’s Annalena Baerbock and France’s Jean-Noel Barrot are the first ministers from the European bloc to visit Syria since the ouster of former President Bashar al-Assad last month. Details of the talks have not yet been made public, but the leaders visited Syria’s notorious Sednaya prison and met with representatives of civil society.

2024

21 December
How Syria’s rebels overcame years of a bloody stalemate to topple Assad
The Syrian regime’s collapse came more quickly than the rebels had dreamed
(WaPo) The circumstances that conspired to bring down Syria’s old, ossified order were both serendipitous and part of a larger global realignment. Assad’s main military allies — Russia and Iran — abandoned him, distracted by their own troubles and disillusioned by the president’s inability to rally his own forces to the fight. His opponents, led by Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a powerful Islamist rebel faction, and other groups backed by Turkey, mounted an unusually unified and formidable attack.
… Assad’s sudden ouster sparked scenes of jubilation across Syria, anguished searches for the tens of thousands of people his government killed or disappeared, and trepidation about the country’s new rulers as they stepped off battlefields and into hastily vacated palaces. A geopolitical balance in the Middle East was upended, leaving Iran and Russia coping with the loss of a strategic ally and other powers such as Turkey and Israel seizing on Syria’s tumult in search of gains.

19 December
The road back to Damascus: Syria’s new rulers face challenges in de-weaponizing supply chains
Hassan Wafai, Associate Professor, Faculty of Management, Royal Roads University
(The Conversation) … Challenges ahead
HTS’s key backers, Turkey and Qatar, will likely provide financial aid and funds to boost public opinion in the short term. However, long-term political stability in Syria hinges on sustained public support, which is deeply tied to the country’s economic situation. The new rulers in Damascus face the daunting job of reviving the economy.
A key prerequisite for reviving the Syrian economy is the de-weaponization of regional and global supply chains, which involves more than removing the imposed economic sanctions on Syria. It requires revitalizing small and medium-sized enterprises and rebuilding public organizations capable of supporting domestic supply networks compatible with regional and global supply chains.
This is easier said than done; small and medium-sized enterprises and the middle class have been decimated over 13 years of civil war. Public and private organizations in Syria have already undergone the zombification processes, becoming heavily reliant on aid to survive.

17 December
UN envoy to Syria warns that the conflict is not over
Geir Pedersen, the UN’s special envoy for Syria, has warned that the conflict “has not ended” even after the dramatic ousting of former president Bashar al-Assad, highlighting clashes between Turkish-backed and Kurdish groups in the north.
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) rebels have been involved in clashes with the Kurdish-led and US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group that toppled Assad, said all rebel factions would “be disbanded and the fighters trained to join the ranks of the defence ministry” during a meeting with members of the minority Druze community.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said the bloc would send an ambassador back to Damascus. “We are ready to reopen our delegation, which is the European embassy, and we want this to be fully operational again,” she said. Kallas added that the EU would aim to help authorities restore basic services like electricity, water and infrastructure.
Syria’s new transitional PM calls for stability and calm

14 December
What’s next for Syria after Assad, with Beirut-based journalist and author Kim Ghattas (podcast)
Listen: How did Syria’s government rule with an iron fist for five decades, only to collapse in two weeks? And after 14 years of bloody civil war, why was now the moment that a frozen war exploded into the global spotlight? The cost Syrians have already paid is greater than any nation could reasonably be expected to bear. Since 2011, more than 500,000 Syrians have died, including 200,000 civilians, and nearly six million refugees flooded neighboring Arab States and some European nations, most notably Germany.
But what comes next? Nature abhors a vacuum, and so does geopolitics. Iran, Russia, Israel, the Gulf states, and the United States all have vested interests in Syria’s future, a country that this week’s GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast guest calls “the crown jewel” of proxy influence in the Middle East. Here to help make sense of these shocking past few weeks and the potential power vacuum to come is Kim Ghattas, a contributing editor at the Financial Times and author of Black Wave.

Where Syria goes next after the fall of Assad
By Frederic C. Hof,Former US Special Envoy to Syria
(Atlantic Council) Although Turkey may be the most important American interlocutor in the coming days and weeks, Washington should spare no effort to create a united front toward Syria among allies and partners. France will be important in this regard, as will the United Arab Emirates (UAE). According to press reports, Abu Dhabi, before the rebel offensive, attempted to ensnare Washington in a foolhardy scheme to lift US sanctions in return for Assad’s promise to halt arms flows to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Now the UAE is wringing its hands over Assad’s departure, warning—perhaps because of Abu Dhabi’s antipathy toward Turkey—that something akin to Libya or Afghanistan is very much in Syria’s future—as if Libyans and Afghans have suffered anything close to what Syrians have suffered for decades under the Assads.
Undoubtedly, twenty million Syrians now face a future with many challenges and more than a few errors. Yet the “devil they knew” surely was the devil. With the Assad family and entourage gone, Syria, at long last, has a chance to achieve the kind of political transition envisioned by the 2012 Geneva Final Communique and United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254. They will now have an opportunity, where none previously existed, to live, work, and thrive in their country of birth instead of seeking refuge and opportunity abroad. After years of persecution by a brutal regime, imperial abuse at the hands of Iran and Russia, and betrayal by regional and international actors, Syrians have taken their liberation into their own hands. They merit the United States’ help and its willingness to listen. But the Syrian revolution, regardless of what happens next, is where it belongs: In the hands of the Syrian people.

12 December
The Scramble for Syria
Carla Norrlöf
After more than a decade of catastrophic civil war, the Assad dynasty’s abrupt collapse represents a moment of rebalancing, not only within Syria but across the Middle East. With Iranian influence diminished, Russia preoccupied and overstretched, and Turkey quietly expanding its reach, the United States has come to a strategic juncture. It can continue to pursue a policy of sanctions and military brinkmanship, or it can pivot to a more constructive form of engagement.
(Project Syndicate) After more than a decade of catastrophic civil war, the Assad dynasty’s abrupt collapse represents a moment of rebalancing, not only within Syria but across the Middle East. With Iranian influence diminished, Russia preoccupied and overstretched, and Turkey quietly expanding its reach, the United States has come to a strategic juncture. It can continue to pursue a policy of sanctions and military brinkmanship, or it can pivot to a more constructive form of engagement.
…developments have triggered a geopolitical scramble, with Turkey, Israel, and the US moving to secure their interests. Turkey is seizing the moment to strike US-backed Kurdish forces along its border, viewing them as terrorists linked to the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). It desperately wants to prevent the consolidation of an autonomous Kurdish region within northeastern Syria, as that could embolden Kurdish separatists at home.

6 December
Ian Bremmer: The Global Power Vacuum Comes to Syria
The events in Syria should serve as a stark reminder that the world’s leadership vacuum is only growing. Seemingly contained events in places like Ukraine and Gaza can echo far beyond their borders, and into the future.
(Project Syndicate) Just as the yearlong war between Israel and Hezbollah gave way to a ceasefire agreement, a new front in the Middle East conflict opened in Syria.
The two events are connected. The dormant 13-year-old Syrian civil war was reignited when anti-government fighters opposed to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime launched a surprise offensive on one of Syria’s largest cities, Aleppo. Syrian army forces, who had been in control of most of the country’s territory since 2017-18, thanks to Iranian and Russian support, were swiftly routed. With their attention elsewhere, Iran and Russia were caught off guard and failed to counter the rebel advance.